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Black XistenZ
#21 Apr 19 2021 07:18pm
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Quote (RedFromWinter @ 19 Apr 2021 22:50)
People enjoy work or a career because it gives them purpose. Perhaps automation will lead to less hours needed per person per week for a given profession, vs killing jobs. That's my hope at least. Medieval peasants enjoyed much time off, yes lots of awful other circumstances, but copious time off. If humans can retain advances from industrialization and scientific innovation while reclaiming more free time, seems like a win.


this is unrealistic because it doesnt take varying levels of intelligence into account, Bell Curve and all that stuff. the reduced demand for labor, and thus the potential reduction in working hours, will not be distributed nearly equally across society. people from the lower half of the IQ distribution are in for a rough time while the transition to a mostly-automated society takes places over a span of several decades.

Thor123422
#22 Apr 19 2021 07:21pm
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Quote (Black XistenZ @ Apr 19 2021 08:18pm)
this is unrealistic because it doesnt take varying levels of intelligence into account, Bell Curve and all that stuff. the reduced demand for labor, and thus the potential reduction in working hours, will not be distributed nearly equally across society. people from the lower half of the IQ distribution are in for a rough time while the transition to a mostly-automated society takes places over a span of several decades.


While intelligence does follow a normal distribution, I will caution you against using the book, The Bell Curve, as a source. I've demolished it many times and would be happy to do it again if you are interested, and also the YouTube channel Shaun has a 2 hour long takedown of the entire book that is incredibly well sourced.

Anyway, I don't think you are actually referencing the book. I Just saw the capitalization and thought I would mention just in case you are.
Thor123422
#23 Apr 19 2021 07:24pm
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Quote (RedFromWinter @ Apr 19 2021 11:47am)
It doesn't stop with automating away hands on repetitive tasks, a lot of rule based systems based on 'experts' are being replaced with ML that operate on models made from huge corpus. Often it's cheaper and yields a better automation result to engineer from a large corpus vs consult many experts.


There are also a lot of limitations to using machine learning. One of which is that machines are great at cheating.

For instance one problem they've had with training machines to find anomolies on medical scans is that the sicker patients tend to get the newest instruments, and the machine picks up on that and automatically weights higher resolution to more likely to find an anomoly.

Another instance is if you set an AI to play a game you have to be careful how you implement things because if one of your AI bots figures out how to crash the game when it starts losing it will never lose even if it uses a sub-optimal strategy.

There's a lot of really interesting ways that machine learning has weird results. Truly fascinating emergent properties coming out of AI.
Black XistenZ
#24 Apr 19 2021 08:02pm
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Quote (Thor123422 @ 20 Apr 2021 03:21)
While intelligence does follow a normal distribution, I will caution you against using the book, The Bell Curve, as a source. I've demolished it many times and would be happy to do it again if you are interested, and also the YouTube channel Shaun has a 2 hour long takedown of the entire book that is incredibly well sourced.

Anyway, I don't think you are actually referencing the book. I Just saw the capitalization and thought I would mention just in case you are.


Oh yes, I didnt intend to refer to the conclusions drawn in that book - I just wanted to reference the well-known concept of intellectual talent not being distributed evenly. During the transition period, there will be a huge bifurcation, with one segment of society seeing their work in high demand, working long hours and simultaneously having to shoulder a huge tax burden, and the other (larger) portion being increasingly cut off from purpose and a lifestyle above the UBI level.



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The late sociologist Ulrich Beck (I took one of his classes in one of my minors!) wrote an excellent and prescient article about this coming phenomenon, titled "Revolt of the Dispensables" (original title: "Die Revolte der Überflüssigen"). With regard to the persistent riots in the French banlieu in 2005, he wrote that these riots were a revolt by a new underclass of citizens: blocked off from a middle class lifestyle, blocked off from finding purpose or recognition via paid work, sealed away in destitute urban wasteland on the periphery of the booming centers of affluence and provided for by social transfers which are sufficient to keep them alive but chosen at the minimal level necessary to prevent them from rioting around the clock.

His core observation was that these people no longer serve any purpose whatsoever for society. They are no longer needed for menial or manual labor, at least not nearly in the quantities that these people exist. And because of the increasing mismatch between their skillsets and formal qualification (or lack thereof) and the demands of a post-industrial, knowledge-based economy, they do not even serve an indirect economic purpose (in the capitalist sense) anymore (by constituting the labor market's "silent reserve" which keeps a downward pressure on wages and increases profits or efficiency). These people are completely dispensable, the only interest society has in them is to keep them quiet at minimal financial and social cost.




Essentially, what snipa and others are saying is that in the wake of automation, this "dispensable class" will grow substantially and the question of how to handle them will become a lot more pressing.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Apr 19 2021 08:05pm
Calipso
#25 Apr 20 2021 11:59am
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Leftists will still support FDR on this.
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