d2jsp
d2jsp Forums > Off-Topic > General Chat > Political & Religious Debate > Final Presidential Debate
12332Next
Add Reply New Topic New Poll
IceMage
#1 Oct 22 2020 05:02pm
Group: Member
Posts: 46,070
Joined: Jun 18 2006
Gold: 1,706.77
tagged4nothing
#2 Oct 22 2020 05:06pm
Group: Member
Posts: 25,486
Joined: Jun 14 2006
Gold: 196.56
Trader: Trusted
thundercock
#3 Oct 22 2020 05:07pm
Group: Member
Posts: 31,493
Joined: Aug 17 2004
Gold: 2,388.18
As far as I'm concerned, the election is already over. I really don't know what could possibly happen to change anything now given the number of votes cast.
IceMage
#4 Oct 22 2020 05:12pm
Group: Member
Posts: 46,070
Joined: Jun 18 2006
Gold: 1,706.77
Quote (thundercock @ Oct 22 2020 07:07pm)
As far as I'm concerned, the election is already over. I really don't know what could possibly happen to change anything now given the number of votes cast.


I'm still not over my 2016 PTSD... until several outlets call it for Biden, I will not feel confident.
thundercock
#5 Oct 22 2020 05:15pm
Group: Member
Posts: 31,493
Joined: Aug 17 2004
Gold: 2,388.18
Quote (IceMage @ Oct 22 2020 04:12pm)
I'm still not over my 2016 PTSD... until several outlets call it for Biden, I will not feel confident.


It was over after the first debate for sure. I'm not even sure if Biden DYING will change anything at this point.
EndlessSky
#6 Oct 22 2020 05:15pm
Group: Member
Posts: 26,297
Joined: Oct 9 2008
Gold: 1,647.52
Warn: 10%
Quote (thundercock @ Oct 22 2020 07:07pm)
As far as I'm concerned, the election is already over. I really don't know what could possibly happen to change anything now given the number of votes cast.


The polls have tightened up in all swing states.

Your vote never mattered. The 10% that actually change their minds are the only ones who matter and they are waiting until after the third debate.
thundercock
#7 Oct 22 2020 05:21pm
Group: Member
Posts: 31,493
Joined: Aug 17 2004
Gold: 2,388.18
Quote (EndlessSky @ Oct 22 2020 04:15pm)
The polls have tightened up in all swing states.

Your vote never mattered. The 10% that actually change their minds are the only ones who matter and they are waiting until after the third debate.


There's hardly any movement in the swing states. The gap is simply too large. Which states are even close that can get Trump to 270?
EndlessSky
#8 Oct 22 2020 05:30pm
Group: Member
Posts: 26,297
Joined: Oct 9 2008
Gold: 1,647.52
Warn: 10%
Quote (thundercock @ Oct 22 2020 07:21pm)
There's hardly any movement in the swing states. The gap is simply too large. Which states are even close that can get Trump to 270?


The only one that isn't is PA, but even that is down to -5.
Black XistenZ
#9 Oct 22 2020 06:23pm
Group: Member
Posts: 42,706
Joined: May 26 2005
Gold: 4,063.00
Quote (thundercock @ 23 Oct 2020 01:21)
There's hardly any movement in the swing states. The gap is simply too large. Which states are even close that can get Trump to 270?


You're imho making a big mistake if you dont take the wide spread in the polls into account. Yes, if we go by polling averages, the gap is probably too large. But this year, there is just a huge variation in the numbers between different pollsters. Just over the last 2 days, we've had one poll from A/B-rated pollster 'IBD/TIPP' (who btw nailed it in 2016) saying it's a 4-5 point race nationally, and at the same time A-rated SurveyUSA saying it's a 10 point race. Same story in Pennsylvania, where even the non-crapster polls range from Biden+3 to Biden+10.

Different pollsters are seeing a vastly different race/electorate this year, much more so than in previous cycles. If the better non-crapster polls for Trump turn out to be true (and I'm not talking about Trafalgar or Rasmussen here!), he's well within striking distance and only needs a normal-sized polling error in his favor to win the EC. Does that sound familiar? ;)

I still think that he's a big underdog, but his chances are definitely substantially greater than zero. Of course all of this is contingent on him holding it together in tonight's debate and not blowing it like last time.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 22 2020 06:25pm
chemoshots
#10 Oct 22 2020 06:26pm
Group: Member
Posts: 18,151
Joined: Sep 2 2008
Gold: 0.00
two old guys being asked to stay up past 9 to argue
why tho
Go Back To Political & Religious Debate Topic List
12332Next
Add Reply New Topic New Poll