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Black XistenZ
#451 Oct 30 2020 04:45pm
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Quote (thundercock @ 30 Oct 2020 23:28)
If Trump loses by 10 points, the GOP is at a crossroads. They might chalk it up as bad luck due to COVID. They might chalk it up to the media being unfair (seeds planted already due to Hunter Biden coverage). Or, they could look at themselves in the mirror and do an actual deep dive on the future of the party. There's a very real chance that they continue down the path of Trumpism. I'm not convinced his supporters will abandon him given that they are still defending him NOW.


If they lose by 10, the party leadership will consider Trumpism to have been the wrong track, both stylistically and policy-wise. In that case, they will push real hard to change direction. Whether these attempts fly with the base is a different story...

If Trump loses by less than 4%, they'll blame it all on covid and Trump's abrasiveness. They'll convince themselves that "a smarter, gentler, more disciplined Trump"(-like figure) would be very successful.

If it falls anywhere between 4 and... I would say 8%, then it's imho gonna be an all out civil war within the party.
EndlessSky
#452 Oct 30 2020 04:46pm
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Quote (thundercock @ Oct 30 2020 06:28pm)
If Trump loses by 10 points, the GOP is at a crossroads. They might chalk it up as bad luck due to COVID. They might chalk it up to the media being unfair (seeds planted already due to Hunter Biden coverage). Or, they could look at themselves in the mirror and do an actual deep dive on the future of the party. There's a very real chance that they continue down the path of Trumpism. I'm not convinced his supporters will abandon him given that they are still defending him NOW.


Chris christie or marco rubio will be their next heir.

Christie is closer to trump so my money is with him.
Black XistenZ
#453 Oct 30 2020 04:50pm
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Quote (EndlessSky @ 30 Oct 2020 23:46)
Chris christie or marco rubio will be their next heir.

Christie is closer to trump so my money is with him.


I think that ship has sailed. And Bridgegate would always be a huge liability for him.


I really dont think that it's gonna be Pence, his appeal is very limited to evangelicals.
Imho, it will come down to Rubio and Haley.

I dont think that the other guys (Ted Cruz, Rick Scott, Josh Hawley, Ron DeSantis, Tom Cotton, Tucker Carlson) can form an intra-party winning coalition.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 30 2020 04:51pm
thundercock
#454 Oct 30 2020 05:07pm
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Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 30 2020 03:45pm)
If they lose by 10, the party leadership will consider Trumpism to have been the wrong track, both stylistically and policy-wise. In that case, they will push real hard to change direction. Whether these attempts fly with the base is a different story...

If Trump loses by less than 4%, they'll blame it all on covid and Trump's abrasiveness. They'll convince themselves that "a smarter, gentler, more disciplined Trump"(-like figure) would be very successful.

If it falls anywhere between 4 and... I would say 8%, then it's imho gonna be an all out civil war within the party.


Trump lost by 2% to Hillary so I'm not sure the margin matters that much. I mean, the polls ALREADY say that Trump is wildly unpopular and few, if any, Republicans are distancing from Trump. In addition, the RNC didn't change campaign strategy so I guess I'm struggling to find a reason why they would change. Are they just hoping the polls are flat out wrong? I agree that they'll probably tone down the rhetoric but I'm not sure if there will be any policy changes.

Quote (EndlessSky @ Oct 30 2020 03:46pm)
Chris christie or marco rubio will be their next heir.

Christie is closer to trump so my money is with him.


Rubio is a nobody and blew his chance. Christie is past his prime. I've always thought that Nikki Haley would end up being in charge because she can probably unite the two factions. I've read that Rick Scott might have a go at it too. We'll see.
Skinned
#455 Oct 30 2020 05:44pm
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Quote (thundercock @ Oct 30 2020 07:07pm)
Trump lost by 2% to Hillary so I'm not sure the margin matters that much. I mean, the polls ALREADY say that Trump is wildly unpopular and few, if any, Republicans are distancing from Trump. In addition, the RNC didn't change campaign strategy so I guess I'm struggling to find a reason why they would change. Are they just hoping the polls are flat out wrong? I agree that they'll probably tone down the rhetoric but I'm not sure if there will be any policy changes.



Rubio is a nobody and blew his chance. Christie is past his prime. I've always thought that Nikki Haley would end up being in charge because she can probably unite the two factions. I've read that Rick Scott might have a go at it too. We'll see.


Rubio lost me when he chugged that water in a panic before his live tv speech. Like wtf was that.

Christie is too fat. No mouthbreathers.

Haley is the one. She will be the GOP's Thatcher. You're right about her being able to restore balance to the sith.

For Dems Sherrod Brown has wisely stayed out of the mudslinging and I'm hoping he becomes more prominent in the party. He is progressive with working class credibility. He has slowly been building influence in committees. He is the only Dem in a state wide elected office in Ohio currently and he has won every election, against seriously backed candidates. Again, he's never lost an election afaik.

This post was edited by Skinned on Oct 30 2020 05:51pm
Black XistenZ
#456 Oct 30 2020 06:01pm
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Quote (thundercock @ 31 Oct 2020 00:07)
Trump lost by 2% to Hillary so I'm not sure the margin matters that much. I mean, the polls ALREADY say that Trump is wildly unpopular and few, if any, Republicans are distancing from Trump. In addition, the RNC didn't change campaign strategy so I guess I'm struggling to find a reason why they would change. Are they just hoping the polls are flat out wrong? I agree that they'll probably tone down the rhetoric but I'm not sure if there will be any policy changes.


That seems like a very simplistic concept of politics. The question Republicans strategists are asking themselves right now is not "would GOP candidate xyz be better off if he was more distanced from Trump", the question is "if xyz undertakes efforts to distance himself from Trump NOW, will he gain more in the middle of the electorate than he loses from Trump supporters staying home or voting for Jorgensen".

Simply put, no GOP candidate in a remotely competitive race can win without strong margins and strong turnout from the GOP base. But this base still really likes Trump, and trying to distance oneself from him in a meaningful way, so that some moderates and swing voters are won over, is impossible without alienating the base.

So no, the fact that most GOP senators and congressmen in tight races are not disavowing Trump is not proof for some sort of irrational, cult-like loyalty - it is something the base forces them to do. Even if Trump appears to be clearly losing, their electoral fate is nonetheless still tied to him, whether they like it or not.




I, personally, do not think that they have to change thaaat much on policy. They only have to fix two big gaps in their platform: an alternative proposal for healthcare, and a plan on how to tackle climate change without banning fossils or imposing carbon taxes, etc. Those plans dont have to be great or even something that could work in practice - they just need something so that they aren't constantly caught with their pants down when someone asks "fine, you want to repeal Obamacare - and then what?"
inkanddagger
#457 Oct 31 2020 04:01pm
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Quote (Skinned @ Oct 30 2020 04:44pm)
Rubio lost me when he chugged that water in a panic before his live tv speech. Like wtf was that.

Christie is too fat. No mouthbreathers.

Haley is the one. She will be the GOP's Thatcher. You're right about her being able to restore balance to the sith.

For Dems Sherrod Brown has wisely stayed out of the mudslinging and I'm hoping he becomes more prominent in the party. He is progressive with working class credibility. He has slowly been building influence in committees. He is the only Dem in a state wide elected office in Ohio currently and he has won every election, against seriously backed candidates. Again, he's never lost an election afaik.



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