Quote (Thor123422 @ 1 Sep 2020 02:19)
If true that would be really bad for Biden. We'll have to see.
Still, I have no clue how demographic turnout will be affected this year, so all the models may just go out the window. It could well be that Trump is motivating his people to turn out and his mail service antics are going to fuck Biden, or it could turn out that his base is more scared of the virus than we thought and his mail antics prevent his own people from voting by mail. Who knows? This election might as well be unknown territory.
I think the real wild card is the realignment going on under the surface. Trump seems to make inroads with minority men and expand on his lead among working-class and middle-income whites while he's losing even more ground with suburban women and losing ground with seniors (voters aged 65+). If his support with the elderly slips, this puts him in a worse position in Florida specifically, and polling seems to confirm this so far.
Given how Florida is almost always decided by razor-thin margins and given how much of a must-win state it is for Trump, this is an electoral weak spot for him that has the potential to single-handedly derail his reelection. On the other hand, Cuban's are an important and traditionally R-leaning voting bloc in Florida, and Trump underperformed with them in 2016, while the riots and looting should not play well with them, not at all. So maybe Trump balances the losses among the elderly with improved margins from Cubans.
Assume my future self came travelling back in time from December this year and told me who won Florida. If I knew that Trump won Florida, I would put the probability of him having won the election at 80%. If I knew that he has lost Florida, I would put his chances at 10%. Florida is of utmost importance, but also super idiosyncratic. This alone already adds extra uncertainty to the entire election...