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May 21 2022 12:51am
Quote (dro94 @ May 21 2022 01:03am)
The likes of AMD are growing, Intel is shrinking. Discounted cash flows will heavily favour the former


Indeed. AMD is treated as a growth stock but the thing is they don't have much room left to grow. They ate the CPU market but what happens now? They can keep up data center growth for another year, but they aren't going to stay on top of the CPU market forever. They were blessed with an abnormal difficulty for Intel to get its 7nm process going, but that advantage will be gone as they compete with Intel for TSMC contracts on 7 and 5 nm.

AMD has grown to the point where there's not much else to grow into. They don't have nearly as diversified of a business as intel and so their avenues are more limited. Intel can go a dozen different directions.

Honestly though, just buy in equal quantites AMD, Nvidia, and Intel. That's basically 100% of the CPU, GPU, and datacenter market. Readjust as necessary to keep the ratios the same and you're guaranteed to be on top no matter who's going up at any given point in the semiconductor space.

This post was edited by NetflixAdaptationWidow on May 21 2022 12:52am
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May 21 2022 05:38am
Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ May 21 2022 12:15am)
Intel's P/E is like 6, AMD is like 35.

Intel is EXTREMELY undervalued. If you want gains on share price Intel is a much safer bet. All they need is good results off TSMC's 7nm process and it'll fly.

AMD has very little to gain. They aren't going to beat NVIDIA in the consumer graphics card space, they aren't going to stay on top on commercial processors forever. At the current price AMD has nowhere to go but down. Intel, however, suffers from the curse of "not being a meme stock". And in return you get a much more solid business.



I will keep this post saved
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May 21 2022 07:58am
- S&P Forward P/E ratio is currently 17, long term average is 15
- Stocks have been cheaper 62% of the time since 1888
- Dividend yields on value stocks are just surpassing 6%, they reached 7% in early 2020 and nearly 9% in 2009
- Growth is still trading at a premium of 7 P/E to value, the historical average is half that

Puts into perspective how we're not close to the bottom yet. The good thing is that we're now approaching the long term mean valuations
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May 21 2022 11:32am
Quote (dro94 @ May 21 2022 06:58am)
- S&P Forward P/E ratio is currently 17, long term average is 15
- Stocks have been cheaper 62% of the time since 1888
- Dividend yields on value stocks are just surpassing 6%, they reached 7% in early 2020 and nearly 9% in 2009
- Growth is still trading at a premium of 7 P/E to value, the historical average is half that

Puts into perspective how we're not close to the bottom yet. The good thing is that we're now approaching the long term mean valuations



No one knows the bottom as its different everytime
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May 21 2022 12:29pm
Quote (Pharaohmon @ May 21 2022 05:32pm)
No one knows the bottom as its different everytime


I'm not asserting what the bottom is, I mean the floor is quite low as evidenced by (still) high valuations, so don't be surprised if we see another 10% drop
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May 21 2022 12:52pm
My mom asked me what a put is this morning
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May 21 2022 07:19pm
Quote (Bazi @ May 21 2022 11:52am)
My mom asked me what a put is this morning



Might be a good sign we hit bottom lol
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May 21 2022 10:36pm
"Parents, are your children talking about PUTS?"
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May 22 2022 07:41am
Quote (Pharaohmon @ May 21 2022 08:19pm)
Might be a good sign we hit bottom lol


I think at minimum we get a dead cat bounce soon. If u look at stocktwit everyone (and their mother, literally) is overly bearish screaming the world is ending. This will give people a chance to redistribute their portfolio and some risk, or take some cash for future dips. A chance to figure out who ur longterm favorites are and who u gonna average into if more drops occur. I think as long as you have cash flow and ur able to buy dips, in the longterm Ull be happy. But like dro said I doubt the pain is over. If Tesla rips to 900s I’m selling mine for some cash. Looks like a big if tho. The last time we had this many red weekly candles in a row was 2008 and what followed was a bull trap followed by big leg down . Iirc that was 7 weeks and qqq is currently at 8 weeks but I could be a little off on these numbers.


This post was edited by Bazi on May 22 2022 07:46am
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May 22 2022 08:19am
Quote (Pharaohmon @ 21 May 2022 21:19)
Might be a good sign we hit bottom lol



I’m guessing we aren’t even close to a bottom

So far hedge fund wise I’ve only heard of archegos and Melvin being shut down.

Until one of the major firms goes tits up, we’re not close.(my opinion, not financial advise)

This post was edited by joshchx on May 22 2022 08:21am
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