Quote (Surfpunk @ 26 Mar 2020 10:12)

Damn....almost 3.3 million new unemployment claims. Not really a surprise, but weird to see the actual numbers.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/26/821580191/unemployment-claims-expected-to-shatter-records

Edit: Even weirder to see the Dow up over 700 with those kind of jobless claims, but since this has been expected, the losses are probably already baked into prices.

Quote (thesnipa @ 26 Mar 2020 10:26)

dead cat bounce from stimulus hopes and bailout expectations, imo. plus the fall is being mitigated by some seriously strong sectors like big box retailers, nothing major but a shot of whiskey with a broken leg.

will be interesting to see the next 3 months, day to day will be hectic.

Quote (Surfpunk @ Mar 26 2020 09:30am)

Yeah, and that was a really dumb idea. We need to see the data to make informed decisions. I know a LOT of people out of work right now. Hopefully this release will get other states on board with releasing their own data (if they haven't yet).

Quote (ofthevoid @ 25 Mar 2020 17:50)

I had a pretty large position so sold half today at 155 and 171. I knew it would have trouble past 173 since that's Goldman's target price plus i needed to be in more cash.

And yeah i agree, long term this company is still undervalued. They were trading close to 400 pre max issues. The max issues are close to being resolved and they are already looking to bring back production sometime in May if all is well.

If you have a 1-3 year horizon there is no reason for this not to be back in the upper 200s at minimum.

Corner of the market that i'm really considering for a trade is the mREIT space. You have companies like STWD, NRZ - mid cap real estate trusts that got taken to the woodshed and left for dead. People sold these because these are companies that had credit/liquidity risk because if people aren't earning and/or out of work for months then possible rents won't be collected etc. So naturally these companies wouldn't be able to meet their debt obligations. But i think with what the fed is doing now, providing 125 B daily + unemployment going up, i really think some of these are going to rebound Boeing-esque.

Another point to consider is this is the space that gives back very high dividends. As the market calms down, there will be a realization that you're better off buying these types of beaten up reits that have 10%+ dividends trading 1/3 of what they previously were and you might see a lot of capital flow from bonds considering you are getting sub 1% on the 10 yr.

Quote (excellence @ Mar 26 2020 11:56am)

those reits rocketed up today and are still probably a bargain. Nrz basically stayed within $15-$19 range from late 2016-2019. interesting to see what the dividend was then and what it actually will be (it sure as hell isnt going to be near 30% lol)

e: 12.4% on avg last 5 years. might nibble a bit

Quote (ofthevoid @ 26 Mar 2020 14:03)

I sold out tbh. Took my 50% gains. I will buy back into STWD at some point though most likely. I'm like 60% cash now since i got the 7k i lost back. I think there were a lot of positive catalysts this week and the next few days as some of the positives fade and we're bombarded with corona headlines there's room to the downside. Still gonna hold through on my BA position and a few others.

Quote (obisent @ 26 Mar 2020 16:04)

Went short with spy puts as well just now, feel we’re still in for some more downwards movement. Looking to close on Monday if it follows the same dumping pattern as last couple weeks.

Quote (excellence @ Mar 26 2020 04:17pm)

doubled up on BA nice one my friend!

Quote (obisent @ Mar 26 2020 04:04pm)

Went short with spy puts as well just now, feel we’re still in for some more downwards movement. Looking to close on Monday if it follows the same dumping pattern as last couple weeks.