How do you have a sustained market rally this Powerful without finance sector? If banks in some universe did fail or became even more cash strapped than now that would have tremendous ripple effects ?

This post was edited by Bazi on Oct 13 2020 01:26pm

You lot have much greater balls than I do, i can't bring myself to make large bets on the market

money is basically free right now and the only upside really is in tech thats why. the big banks kinda just waffle around until stuff gets back on track, where they can get back their usual song and dance

id say banks that are involved in the stimulus loans and real estate lending are doing well compared to your bac/wf/citi etc

i did load up on bac sub-20 back in march and while its done fine its awful compared to stabbing any random tech stock lmao

Large banks are fine and will be fine because Dodd-Frank forced them to have really strong balance sheets. Problem is shareholder value is basically stolen because they have to dedicate so much of that money to things like bad loan provisions. Couple that with the very low IR and you get a really bad outcome for large banks. Not only, but we're in a recession and most companies are doing less deals, less underwriting which is what banks also do to make money.

Like dro said, they're a really good indicator of what the economy actually looks like. We have this perception that an economic recovery is right around the corner and we'll see it as soon as 2021 starts but it seems some of the large banks are signaling that we really might not be out of the woods until 2022.

We're a long way from that happening, but if banks were in a scenario similar to 2008 this would be a result of your average joe having less/no disposable income. They may struggle paying their debts which potentially 100m investors are dependent on the contractual rights to the cashflows of his mortage that they purchased in a security from an investment bank, but...bank SOFPs are far better now and there is far more government intervention.

If there was a doomsday scenario though, the main effects on large companies would be: 1) A reduction in demand for their products/services (depends on the co, more 'elastic' products i.e. luxury goods, hit the hardest; 2) Lack of debt funding available, which could be pretty bad for struggling companies in particular. You'd see a lot more rights issues and placing but that's bad news for a company because it costs a shit load more than a bank loan and would only be suitable for huge projects - but what about funding short-medium term positive NPV projects? They won't be funded --> lower ROCE/productivity. Large companies aren't the problem, it's the SME's. I would be more worried owning small cap funds than your Disneys etc.

Commercial banks are struggling because they are losing margin on lower interest rates, delinquencies and they are tightening credit on new mortgages/loans. Their results can be an intimation of macroeconomic health and I will be looking at Wells Fargo's results in particular.

Investment banks are doing fine due to higher volumes of stock market trading since the initial dip in March. Options trading in particular really helped to offset the negative effect of COVID-related write offs on their bottom line in Q2. They (Goldman, JP) will almost certainly have decent results in Q3

https://mobile.twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1316131326651760642

here’s why we dont have another stim pack to help those affected by covid shutdowns: because pelosi says cnn is protecting republicans.





This post was edited by excellence on Oct 13 2020 05:20pm

invest in Trump Whiskey
/thread

Bought some cheap 10/30 American Airlines puts, looking to sell on Thursday for an earnings play.

Ofc, this becomes worthless if stim pack manages to pass this week.

This post was edited by obisent on Oct 20 2020 12:09pm

she truly is a disgusting human being.

she would make a good Republican