Quote (thundercock @ 25 Feb 2020 01:49)
That's an interesting observation. The problem is, 35% seems to be a pretty darn good plurality. If he has that on Super Tuesday, I think he ends up with a plurality of delegates by the time the convention rolls around.
Oh, totally. My point, which I already made a couple of days ago before the NV caucus, is that Bernie is not this unstoppable juggernaut that the media tries to make him right now. If the rest of the field could consolidate around one candidate, he would almost surely not win an outright majority of delegates and struggle to clinch the nomination.
But as I said: NV was a good fit for him, so his 35% there dont contradict his 25% nationally. These numbers will prolly go up thanks to the positive press coverage though. And as I said a couple of days ago: Trump won in 2016 with ~35% against a fractured field. (Albeit with much more winner-takes-all contests.) For a factional candidate like Bernie or Trump, 25% vs 35% makes a world of a difference.
Overall, I agree with those pundits who were saying after NV that the rest of the field must consolidate NOW, because if Bernie gets 40+% of the delegates with ~30% of the popular vote on Super Tuesday, it might already be game over and too late to catch him. Because one thing is for sure: if Bernie heads into the convention with 40ish percent of delegates and a large margin over the next-best candidate, the DNC cant really steal the nomination from him without risking that Bernie's supporters burn Milwaukee (and perhaps the party) to the ground.
If Bernie ends up with a plurality, they can only take it away from him if there is a clear-cut alternative candidate who is close enough to him. Bernie 40%, Bloomberg 35%, Warren 5%, Biden 10% - in that scenario, they can make a valid argument to nominate Bloomberg. If it's Bernie 42%, Bloomberg 20%, Biden 15%, Warren 7%, then Bernie will be inevitable.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 25 2020 05:03am