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Poll > Trump 2020 > Trump Vs. Pack O' Dems
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Oct 23 2020 11:40pm
Quote (TB12 @ 24 Oct 2020 07:27)
The funniest argument I've seen is that the polling has changed and adapted since 2016, but that's truly hard to believe. Polling is about your sample, and it's not likely that any of these pollsters have been able to change their sample to include the Trump voters they missed in 2016. Now models/projections should have been fixed and should be able to account for this, but considering the polls look so similar to 2016 and the models are still so drastically in Bidens favor it's hard to imagine even the models have changed. (which is weird to me)

But I ran some numbers, if the same shift happens, I took the polls now and scewed them to what they would be if the same swing happens this year (polls on Oct. 23, 2016 versus the actual results)

This is where the election is won or lost:
Georgia (Trump +0.3)
Pennsylvannia (Trump +1.8)
Arizona (Trump +2.4)
Wisconsin (Trump +3.1)

Biden would need 3/4 of these states to win.

Here are the full predictions in battleground states if anyone is interested.

https://i.imgur.com/CE35V55.png


Pollsters didnt weight for education up until 2016. Prior to Trump, the partisan split along the "diploma divide" wasnt very pronounced, so that this omission didnt introduce too much bias into the polls. But with Trump, there was a lot of realignment/a great voter swap between the parties, and all of a sudden education had become this huge predictor of voting behavior.

Most pollsters do weight for education now, and polling was generally very accurate in 2018. (The only big and noteworthy polling miss were the two statewide Florida races.)

So no, there is not really a reason to assume that polls will be AS off in 2020 as they were in 2016. I still expect them to be slightly off, based on differential nonresponse (Trump supporters being less inclined to answer polls), but not to the same extent. Additionally, we have to keep in mind that the 2016 polling errors resulted from the combination of faulty methodology with very significant and late movement in the race. In 2016, there were a lot of undecideds until the very end, and there was the Comey letter in the final stretch of the campaign. I dont see Trump getting the same amount of lucky breaks again.
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Oct 23 2020 11:55pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 24 2020 12:40am)
Pollsters didnt weight for education up until 2016. Prior to Trump, the partisan split along the "diploma divide" wasnt very pronounced, so that this omission didnt introduce too much bias into the polls. But with Trump, there was a lot of realignment/a great voter swap between the parties, and all of a sudden education had become this huge predictor of voting behavior.

Most pollsters do weight for education now, and polling was generally very accurate in 2018. (The only big and noteworthy polling miss were the two statewide Florida races.)

So no, there is not really a reason to assume that polls will be AS off in 2020 as they were in 2016. I still expect them to be slightly off, based on differential nonresponse (Trump supporters being less inclined to answer polls), but not to the same extent. Additionally, we have to keep in mind that the 2016 polling errors resulted from the combination of faulty methodology with very significant and late movement in the race. In 2016, there were a lot of undecideds until the very end, and there was the Comey letter in the final stretch of the campaign. I dont see Trump getting the same amount of lucky breaks again.


If the polls aren't MASSIVELY incorrect even relative to 2016, then Trump is sunk.

Trump needs the voting dynamics in the country to be so radically shifted relative to even 2 years ago that all models are worthless.

Now.... the thing that scares me.... is this could very well be the case.
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Oct 24 2020 12:22am


Looks like Trump is winning our international, unbiased poll.
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Oct 24 2020 12:32am
Quote (Thor123422 @ 24 Oct 2020 07:55)
If the polls aren't MASSIVELY incorrect even relative to 2016, then Trump is sunk.

Trump needs the voting dynamics in the country to be so radically shifted relative to even 2 years ago that all models are worthless.

Now.... the thing that scares me.... is this could very well be the case.


I've already made this same argument to thundercock yesterday: what you say is only true if we go by the polling averages. But since the spread of the polls is unusually high this year, this approach or way of thinking about the race is very risky.


Normally, polls vary a bit based on minor methodological differences between pollsters and on sampling error, and these effects can effectively be smoothed away by aggregating the polls. But I'm very sceptical of the soundness of this approach in a world where we're, on the same day, getting quality polls showing Biden up between 10 points and 4 points nationally, or up between 3 and 13 points in Pennsylvania. This kind of split between the polls has been a consistent feature of this race, and the gap is just too big and persistent to be explained by outlier samples or minor methodological differences. This kind of split is only possible when pollsters use a significantly different methodology, or see vastly different electorates.

Either the polls showing a landslide, or the polls showing a mid-single digit race have to be way off. And if it's the latter type which is showing the true picture, then Trump's behind but still very competitive in the decisive battleground states.


It basically comes down to this: do we think that a Quinnipiac poll showing Biden up 11 in Floirda and 13 in Pennsylvania is garbage? If the answer is yes, then including it in the polling average will inflate this average, leading to all assessments based on this average to be biased in Biden's favor too. This of course cuts both ways, but I think we've seen far more polls unrealistically inflated toward Biden this cycle than toward Trump.

My personal assumption is that Biden will win the popular vote by 6-7%, and the tipping point state in the EC by around 3%. A 10% Biden win wouldnt totally surprise me though, and neither woudl a narrow Trump win.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 24 2020 12:33am
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Oct 24 2020 09:38am
https://www.dailywire.com/news/hirono-snaps-when-confronted-over-democrat-double-standard-on-sexual-preference-world-is-in-flames

Hirono is such a piece of shit, seriously

When questioning Barrett:
>"omg you said 'sexual preference' instead of 'sexual orientation', you're a monster~!"
When questioned by reporters who ask if Joe Biden should be apologize too, since he also says 'sexual preference' all the time:
>"omg the world is on flames, who cares~!"
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Oct 24 2020 10:12am
Quote (Goomshill @ 24 Oct 2020 11:38)
https://www.dailywire.com/news/hirono-snaps-when-confronted-over-democrat-double-standard-on-sexual-preference-world-is-in-flames

Hirono is such a piece of shit, seriously

When questioning Barrett:
>"omg you said 'sexual preference' instead of 'sexual orientation', you're a monster~!"
When questioned by reporters who ask if Joe Biden should be apologize too, since he also says 'sexual preference' all the time:
>"omg the world is on flames, who cares~!"

a lifelong swamp demon and drain on the taxpayer that Hirono. no honor, just different rulesets for different people based on race/gender/faith etc.

it’s no wonder politicians like Hirono (D) and Biden (D) were/are pro-kkk, pro segregation, pro-filibuster of the civil rights act, etc.

This post was edited by excellence on Oct 24 2020 10:13am
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Oct 24 2020 10:46am
Quote (Goomshill @ Oct 24 2020 11:38am)
https://www.dailywire.com/news/hirono-snaps-when-confronted-over-democrat-double-standard-on-sexual-preference-world-is-in-flames

Hirono is such a piece of shit, seriously

When questioning Barrett:
>"omg you said 'sexual preference' instead of 'sexual orientation', you're a monster~!"
When questioned by reporters who ask if Joe Biden should be apologize too, since he also says 'sexual preference' all the time:
>"omg the world is on flames, who cares~!"


Hirono is terrible. She's always annoyed the hell out of me at any of these hearings.

This is a sidebar, but it's disappointing that outlets like National Review aren't capable of doing real reporting. The problem for conservative outlets is they are good at complaining about media bias, or writing commentary on whatever comes up, but they aren't providing consistent, neutral reporting. Every legitimate conservative outlet has to rely on the reporting of mainstream organizations.
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Oct 24 2020 11:10am
Quote (IceMage @ Oct 24 2020 11:46am)
Hirono is terrible. She's always annoyed the hell out of me at any of these hearings.

This is a sidebar, but it's disappointing that outlets like National Review aren't capable of doing real reporting. The problem for conservative outlets is they are good at complaining about media bias, or writing commentary on whatever comes up, but they aren't providing consistent, neutral reporting. Every legitimate conservative outlet has to rely on the reporting of mainstream organizations.


Too many of them have been working to balance out the liberal media bias by having their own conservative media bias.
Yeah it was something when CNN countered Fox's bias by having its own liberal bias, but then the MSM went full blown propaganda machine for the left and so the right responded with their own midget propaganda machine
There's really nothing left in the middle at all. Even wire services like the AP and Reuters routinely print pure partisan trash and disinformation

its why I'm stuck listening to the BBC talk about US politics. Too often its unforgivingly representative. They had both Trump supporters and opponents in some segment I listened to a few weeks ago after Trump got covid, where one Trumpie was a blue collar worker who generally supported his policies and opposed his personality but was fine with it and thought having covid would give him some perspective, one was a firebrand college republican president screaming about the liberal media and accusing democrats of wishing Trump would die, one was a housewife saying covid is a hoax and she doesn't trust the cdc stats. Which I have to say, is pretty representative of the republican base, to their credit. I got done driving before the liberals came on though

This post was edited by Goomshill on Oct 24 2020 11:14am
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Oct 24 2020 12:19pm
It's been fun guys, real fun. Placed another 5-figure bet on Trump, it's literally printing money. How the betting sites haven't caught on to the polls being rigged yet is really beyond me, but I'm not complaining. If he wins again, I'll have made close to $100k simply from taking advantage of the rigged polls and fake betting odds. Thanks MSM!
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Oct 24 2020 12:20pm
Quote (EA7 @ Oct 24 2020 01:19pm)
It's been fun guys, real fun. Placed another 5-figure bet on Trump, it's literally printing money. How the betting sites haven't caught on to the polls being rigged yet is really beyond me, but I'm not complaining. If he wins again, I'll have made close to $100k simply from taking advantage of the rigged polls and fake betting odds. Thanks MSM!


Gonna need some proof on this.
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