I'm just confused on it. Feels like the reporting is manufactured. Maybe the article I read had the dates wrong? Could have sworn it said April though.

Last nights debate made me WAY more comfortable voting for Trump

omfg dat ad:

https://twitter.com/jacobkschneider/status/1318603111066468354

Seriously, watch it!

Every day we drift further from God's light.

I'm not sure if this ad is brilliant or a caricature of the whole campaign.

it’s brilliant. a celebration of an ethnicity rather than absurd bullshit like “you aint black” like biden screams

But that's the big question: will hispanics interpret this ad as a positive celebration of their culture, or will they see it as a pandering mockery full of racist tropes?

What a time to be alive

The funniest argument I've seen is that the polling has changed and adapted since 2016, but that's truly hard to believe. Polling is about your sample, and it's not likely that any of these pollsters have been able to change their sample to include the Trump voters they missed in 2016. Now models/projections should have been fixed and should be able to account for this, but considering the polls look so similar to 2016 and the models are still so drastically in Bidens favor it's hard to imagine even the models have changed. (which is weird to me)

But I ran some numbers, if the same shift happens, I took the polls now and scewed them to what they would be if the same swing happens this year (polls on Oct. 23, 2016 versus the actual results)

This is where the election is won or lost:
Georgia (Trump +0.3)
Pennsylvannia (Trump +1.8)
Arizona (Trump +2.4)
Wisconsin (Trump +3.1)

Biden would need 3/4 of these states to win.

Here are the full predictions in battleground states if anyone is interested.