Quote (Scrotie @ Apr 17 2019 09:08pm)
I didn't want to comment before, explaining why hard lines are terrible and closing lines are best for betting, but today proves a valid point.
I took the hard line Astros ML -110 & Over 9 -105, closing line is Astros +105 & O/U 8.5 -105, hard lines suck; they just make it easier to calculate your bets in the end.
You bring up a good point and I'll address it but first lemme correct your mistakes.
The Westgate close was Astros -101 and over 8.5 for -120 that's what Linux would have used.
I never said every bet placed is better for the bettor at the closing line. I said that the unknown change in lines AFTER you place your bet is not something a profitable baseball better can rely on.
Now separate issue here that you should know, in baseball there really isn't that much difference between over 8.5 at -120 and over 9 at -105. In fact I'd argue that you got the better number at -105 juice even though you gave up half a run. Keep in mind if you lose that total at 8.5 you'd owe 120 instead of 105, that's a whole.15 units more. Which means you have to win that bet at a slightly higher % than the %of times you are going win with half run compared to not winning with the 9.
Tbh you probably shouldn't take any totals with juice of higher than -110 in baseball -115 is pushing it.
That's all for now I guess.