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Apr 17 2019 08:08pm
Quote (Zero501 @ 14 Apr 2019 22:34)
Dude goddammit this type of book is awful for baseball. Please consider fixed lines like Tx6


I didn't want to comment before, explaining why hard lines are terrible and closing lines are best for betting, but today proves a valid point.

I took the hard line Astros ML -110 & Over 9 -105, closing line is Astros +105 & O/U 8.5 -105, hard lines suck; they just make it easier to calculate your bets in the end.
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Apr 17 2019 08:08pm
Quote (Scrotie @ 17 Apr 2019 19:08)
I didn't want to comment before, explaining why hard lines are terrible and closing lines are best for betting, but today proves a valid point.

I took the hard line Astros ML -110 & Over 9 -105, closing line is Astros +105 & O/U 8.5 -105, hard lines suck; they just make it easier to calculate your bets in the end.


Oh lawd here comes zero
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Apr 17 2019 09:31pm
Quote (Scrotie @ Apr 17 2019 09:08pm)
I didn't want to comment before, explaining why hard lines are terrible and closing lines are best for betting, but today proves a valid point.

I took the hard line Astros ML -110 & Over 9 -105, closing line is Astros +105 & O/U 8.5 -105, hard lines suck; they just make it easier to calculate your bets in the end.


You bring up a good point and I'll address it but first lemme correct your mistakes.

The Westgate close was Astros -101 and over 8.5 for -120 that's what Linux would have used.

I never said every bet placed is better for the bettor at the closing line. I said that the unknown change in lines AFTER you place your bet is not something a profitable baseball better can rely on.

Now separate issue here that you should know, in baseball there really isn't that much difference between over 8.5 at -120 and over 9 at -105. In fact I'd argue that you got the better number at -105 juice even though you gave up half a run. Keep in mind if you lose that total at 8.5 you'd owe 120 instead of 105, that's a whole.15 units more. Which means you have to win that bet at a slightly higher % than the %of times you are going win with half run compared to not winning with the 9.

Tbh you probably shouldn't take any totals with juice of higher than -110 in baseball -115 is pushing it.

That's all for now I guess.
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