I finally called ESPN and bitched about not being able to log in my magazine# for the 20th time for my 1 year insider access, they bumped me up from 1 year to 4 years of insider access for free, so if you want an article posted, post up here and I'll copy pasta as soon as possible.

beauty

TY, man. Boggy ( http://forums.d2jsp.org/user.php?i=384172 ) is going to help too, so we are going to have double coverage.

I will keep this tracked and use it for future

When Carmelo Anthony came in a surprising 64th in ESPN's #NBArank, part of the story was the player directly in front of the 10-time All-Star: No. 2 overall pick Lonzo Ball, who had yet to play in an NBA game.

Along with No. 1 pick Markelle Fultz of the Philadelphia 76ers and Dennis Smith Jr. of the Dallas Mavericks, drafted ninth, Ball was one of three rookies from the 2017 draft to finish in the top 100 of #NBArank voting. (A fourth rookie in the top 100, Fultz's Philadelphia teammate Ben Simmons, was the No. 1 pick of the 2016 draft but missed his first season in the NBA due to injury.)

Yet the record shows few rookies -- and particularly few point guards -- tend to be so valuable. Are expectations too high for this year's crop of rookie point guards?

Rookies in the top 100

Last season, it took 3.4 wins above replacement player (WARP) to rank among the NBA's top 100 players by my value metric. Just two rookies reached that threshold: Sixers center Joel Embiid (4.4 WARP) and New York Knicks center Willy Hernangomez (4.1). Rookie of the Year Malcolm Brogdon of the Milwaukee Bucks just missed with 3.0 WARP, though he rated much better in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) because of his defensive value; Brogdon's 5.7 RPM wins ranked 74th in the league.
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Those three players have something in common: They were all much older than the one-and-done prospects picked in this year's #NBArank top 100. Embiid was drafted in 2014 but did not debut until 2016-17 because of a navicular fracture; he turned 23 after his season ended prematurely. Hernangomez was 22, having been drafted in 2015, but he remained overseas an additional season. And though he was the lone 2016 pick of the three, Brogdon was actually the oldest at 24, having spent five years at Virginia due to a medical redshirt.

A similar trend is evident looking back at the recent history of rookies in the WARP top 100. Over the past decade, during which one-and-done prospects have ruled the top of the draft, 31 rookies -- an average of a little more than three per year -- have ranked among the league's top 100 in WARP. More than half of that group had turned 22 by the end of their rookie season. Just seven of the 31 were players in their second year out of high school. (Two others, Nerlens Noel and Greg Oden, were drafted after one year in college but, like Simmons, missed their first NBA season due to injury.)
One-and-done prospects among WARP top 100
Player Season Team WARP Rank
Karl-Anthony Towns 2015-16 MIN 12.4 15
Anthony Davis 2012-13 NOH 8.2 31
Andre Drummond 2012-13 DET 7.1 43
Kyrie Irving 2011-12 CLE 7.0 46
Tyreke Evans 2009-10 SAC 6.3 48
Kevin Love 2008-09 MIN 5.9 61
Brandon Jennings 2009-10 MIL 5.6 59

Notable in their absence from that list are plenty of All-Stars, including a pair of MVPs: Kevin Durant (0.8 WARP as a rookie before improving dramatically in Year 2) and Derrick Rose (3.1 WARP). That's how difficult it is for inexperienced rookies to be among the league's best players -- particularly point guards.
One-and-done point guard performance

All three 2017 draft picks in the #NBArank top 100 were point guards -- assuming Fultz ends up playing regularly at the position despite Simmons serving as the 76ers' primary ball handler -- and despite the presence of two of them on the previous list, the track record of one-and-done point guards is particularly dire. Over the past decade, 20 one-and-done players have primarily played point guard as rookies. Here's how they've performed:
One-and-done rookie PG performance
Name Draft Pick Min Win% WARP
Kyrie Irving 2011 1 1558 .615 7.0
Brandon Jennings 2009 10 2671 .518 5.6
John Wall 2010 1 2606 .482 3.7
Derrick Rose 2008 1 3000 .465 3.1
Jrue Holiday 2009 17 1767 .454 1.4
D'Angelo Russell 2015 2 2259 .438 1.2
Mike Conley 2007 4 1381 .431 0.4
Tyus Jones 2015 24 573 .442 0.4
Brandon Knight 2011 8 2129 .422 0.3
Jamal Murray 2016 7 1764 .416 0.2
Eric Bledsoe 2010 18 1841 .414 0.0
Tony Wroten 2012 25 272 .354 -0.3
Dejounte Murray 2016 29 322 .332 -0.5
Tyler Ennis 2014 18 411 .334 -0.7
Javaris Crittenton 2007 19 679 .368 -0.7
Cory Joseph 2011 29 266 .300 -0.8
Marquis Teague 2012 29 392 .280 -1.1
Josh Selby 2011 49 237 .223 -1.2
Zach LaVine 2014 13 1902 .376 -1.4
Jerryd Bayless 2008 11 655 .302 -1.6

Just half of the group performed better than replacement level as rookies, with just four of them coming anywhere close to the top 100. Naturally, three of those four high-performing one-and-done rookie point guards were the No. 1 overall pick in their draft, with Jennings -- who spent his one season after high school playing professionally in Italy rather than in college -- as the exception.

Fultz and Ball are similarly touted, since both were considered possible No. 1 overall picks. But Smith, who slipped to ninth on draft night, would have to join Jennings as an exception to the rule.

How do this year's three one-and-done rookie point guards compare as prospects to their predecessors? Let's focus in on one-and-done point guards drafted in the top 10.
One-and-done PG prospects
Name Draft Pick Projected Win% Actual Win%
Kyrie Irving 2011 1 .514 .615
Lonzo Ball 2017 2 .496 -
D'Angelo Russell 2015 2 .478 .438
Mike Conley 2007 4 .460 .431
John Wall 2010 1 .449 .482
Brandon Jennings 2009 10 .444 .518
Dennis Smith Jr. 2017 9 .422 -
Derrick Rose 2008 1 .416 .465
Markelle Fultz 2017 1 .414 -
Jamal Murray 2016 7 .411 .416
Brandon Knight 2011 8 .411 .422
De'Aaron Fox 2017 5 .366 -
Top 10 picks only

Ball's projected rookie winning percentage -- the per-minute component of WARP, akin to PER -- ranks second to Irving of this group. However, based on their college performance, Smith and Fultz don't look like the same kind of instant contributors. That's not to say they're bad prospects; this doesn't consider age, and Fultz, who turned 19 in late May, is one of the youngest one-and-done draft picks in recent memory. Once age is incorporated, Fultz ranked fourth in my stats-only projections for the 2017 draft (Ball was first) and Smith sixth.

It's certainly possible that, like Rose before them, Fultz and Smith could exceed their rookie projections and get within shouting distance of the top 100. Still, their placement in the #NBArank list looks exceedingly optimistic. It's more likely they develop into quality NBA point guards in their second season than as rookies.

Putting Ball in the top 100 is much more reasonable, though expectations should still be tempered by the inability of Lakers predecessor D'Angelo Russell -- also a No. 2 pick whose projection was previously second to Irving among this group -- to help the team win as a rookie. And box-score stats such as WARP will likely overstate Ball's value as a rookie because they won't factor in his poor on-ball defense. So I'd probably have Ball closer to last in the top 100 than where he actually ranked.

It's right to be excited about the potential of Fultz, Ball and Smith. However, becoming a good NBA player is difficult enough for any 19- or 20-year-old, let alone one who also has to learn a new offense and try to deal with the talented veterans at point guard in the league right now. Expecting this year's top rookie point guards to be valuable players right away is simply unrealistic.

To determine the Future Power Rankings, we rated each team in five categories. For an explanation of each category and a full view of how each team did in each individual category, click here.

Here are our latest rankings:

Go to: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30

1. Golden State Warriors
Rank Score
Players 1 100
Management 1 97.5
Money 27 27.5
Market 1 90
Draft 27.5 26
Overall: 86.3

After winning their second championship in three seasons, the Warriors remain light years ahead of the competition, finishing atop the Future Power Rankings as they have every edition since their first title run.

With a big assist from Kevin Durant's willingness to take a pay cut, Golden State's top-rated management team successfully navigated the free agency of several key players this offseason, bringing back the team's core while adding Omri Casspi and Nick Young.

In the long term, Klay Thompson's free agency in the summer of 2019 and the potential for enormous luxury-tax bills as a repeater team could break up the Warriors' potential dynasty. For now, those storm clouds are out of sight beyond the horizon.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 1)
2. Boston Celtics
Rank Score
Players 3 80
Management 3 87.5
Money 22 30
Market 8 60
Draft 3 87.5
Overall: 76.0

Having added star power in the form of Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving this summer, the Celtics climb one spot to their highest rank ever in the Future Power Rankings, which debuted in the fall of 2009.

We've seen Boston's success coming; the Celtics ranked third in each of the past two editions. But now, in the wake of a run to the Eastern Conference finals, Boston is closer to making that future reality. Though the Celtics have loaded up, they still rank third in the draft category with an extra pick coming either next year or 2019 from trading the No. 1 selection to the Philadelphia 76ers, plus potentially two more in 2019 from the LA Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies.

And there are few organizations we trust to manage success better than the Celtics, who rank third in the management category.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 3)
3. Houston Rockets
Rank Score
Players 2 82.5
Management 4 77.5
Money 24 25
Market 7 65
Draft 17.5 30
Overall: 70.0

A year ago, we were skeptical of the Rockets' direction building around star James Harden. That looks foolish now, after Houston won 55 games and then landed perhaps the best player to change teams this summer, All-Star point guard Chris Paul.

Only the Warriors scored better in the players category than the Rockets, who boast a number of capable role players to complement Paul and Harden. And with Mike D'Antoni winning Coach of the Year while GM Daryl Morey was a close second for Executive of the Year, Houston has jumped to fourth in management.

The Rockets still must re-sign Paul next summer, and a new contract for him plus Harden's designated player extension would mean significant luxury taxes for new owner Tilman Fertitta. Nonetheless, Houston looks like one of the biggest threats to Golden State going forward.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 9)
4. San Antonio Spurs
Rank Score
Players 4 70
Management 2 92.5
Money 12 47.5
Market 13 52.5
Draft 25 30
Overall: 67.1

While teams around them come and go, the Spurs hold steady at No. 4 for the third consecutive edition of FPR.

San Antonio did forfeit the opportunity to be a player in free agency next summer with a curious offseason, re-signing guard Patty Mills and center Pau Gasol to lucrative long-term deals that will limit their future cap space. Those commitments will make it difficult to add another star alongside two-way force Kawhi Leonard.

By maintaining continuity, the Spurs have kept themselves in position to challenge the Warriors. And, though we might not totally understand what San Antonio was doing this offseason, that doesn't diminish our belief in the Spurs' second-ranked management team. As long as coach Gregg Popovich and Leonard are in place, San Antonio should remain a contender.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 4)
5. Minnesota Timberwolves
Rank Score
Players 4 70
Management 12 52.5
Money 15 40
Market 30 15
Draft 20 40
Overall: 57.7

Time will tell if the Timberwolves' top-five ranking is more hype than substance.

For consecutive seasons Minnesota enters the season ranked in the top five without a playoff appearance to justify it. Unlike last season, when the Timberwolves missed the playoffs and saw their win total increase only two games (29 to 31), this offseason's additions to the roster and continued development of their young players should justify the future ranking.

Minnesota jumped two steps in their rebuild this summer with the acquisition of All-Star Jimmy Butler and free-agent signings of Jeff Teague, Jamal Crawford and Taj Gibson. The Timberwolves did so without sacrificing any of their franchise pieces in Karl-Anthony Towns or Andrew Wiggins.

Now with Andrew Wiggins set to sign a long-term extension, the Timberwolves' starting lineup looks to be intact for at least the next two seasons and in the case of Wiggins and Anthony-Towns the foreseeable future.

The Timberwolves' cap flexibility was lost with the Butler addition and free-agent spending, but president-coach Tom Thibodeau and GM Scott Layden should feel comfortable sacrificing cap space for a franchise that should now be a perennial playoff team.

-- Bobby Marks

(Previous rank: 5)

Go to: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30
Bill Streicher/USA TODAY
6. Philadelphia 76ers
Rank Score
Players 13 55
Management 19 42.5
Money 4 90
Market 17 45
Draft 4 85
Overall: 57.5

While every free agent who signs with Philadelphia seems to tweet "trust the process," the 76ers have begun to move from process to results. An aggressive trade landed the No. 1 pick, used on Markelle Fultz, who completes a core that also includes 2016 No. 1 pick Ben Simmons and tantalizing center Joel Embiid.

If those young standouts stay healthy and develop as expected, the Sixers will have the star talent necessary to compete for a championship. And they've accumulated a group of low-cost role players: guard T.J. McConnell, forwards Robert Covington and Dario Saric and center Richaun Holmes.

Even if Philadelphia extends the contracts of Covington and Embiid this fall, the team should still have enough cap room to sign a 3-and-D shooting guard, rounding out the long-term starting five. Though a return to the playoffs this season might be optimistic, within three years the Sixers could be contenders.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 14)
T-7. Cleveland Cavaliers
Rank Score
Players 11 60
Management 19 42.5
Money 15 42.5
Market 8 60
Draft 5 80
Overall: 57.3

Will LeBron James stay or will he go? That question looms heavily over Cleveland's future projection.

Having swapped Irving for a package including Jae Crowder and All-Star Isaiah Thomas, the Cavaliers should again be one of the NBA's best teams in 2017-18 provided Thomas is able to return from his hip injury. The outlook is hazier beyond that because James can become a free agent, and whispers around the league suggest he's likely to leave Cleveland again.

If James departs, the Cavaliers could pivot to a rebuild using the 2018 Nets' first-round pick they acquired from the Celtics as a starting point. So this time a year from now, Cleveland could rank near the bottom of the future rankings.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 2)
T-7. Oklahoma City Thunder
Rank Score
Players 6 65
Management 5 72.5
Money 24 25
Market 21 40
Draft 27 22.5
Overall: 57.3

The newly-minted $205 million Russell Westbrook extension has the Thunder now in the top 10. Before the long-term commitment, Oklahoma City ranked No. 15 based on the star PG's uncertain future.

The Westbrook contract, along with the recent addition of Carmelo Anthony, has Oklahoma City ranked No. 6 in players, up eight spots from the last ranking. Had Westbrook not extended, Oklahoma City would still rank outside of the top 10 even with the acquisition of Anthony. The pending free agency of Paul George has the Thunder outside of the top-5 in players and overall ranking, though.

Before the extension, Oklahoma City ranked No. 12 in money because of the potential cap flexibility if Westbrook and George left in free agency. The Westbrook contract now has Oklahoma City ranked No. 24 in money. Even with the uncertain future of George, Oklahoma City will likely be a luxury tax team in 2018-19 based on the likelihood of Anthony opting into his $27.9 million contract. In addition, the Anthony trade increased the Thunder's current tax bill from $15.4 million to $27.8 million.

The Thunder's draft assets are diminished from previous trades. The Thunder rank No. 27 in the draft category based on their 2018 first-rounder headed to Minnesota (lottery protected) and 2020 to Orlando (top-20 protected).

-- Bobby Marks

(Previous rank: 15)
9. Denver Nuggets
Rank Score
Players 6 65
Management 14 47.5
Money 21 35
Market 17 45
Draft 17 42.5
Overall: 56.0

No team in the Future Power Rankings has taken a bigger leap than the Denver Nuggets.

In the late teens last September (17), Denver now sits at No. 8 based on the addition of All-Star Paul Millsap and the emergence of center Nikola Jokic. Both players along with All-Rookie Jamal Murray, a roster of former draft picks and solid veterans (Jameer Nelson and Wilson Chandler) have Denver ranked No. 6 in players and a roster built for the playoffs in the next three seasons.

The jump in players (13 spots) also had an impact on where the Nuggets ranked in management.

Denver moves eight spots to No. 14 based on GM Tim Connelly and his basketball staff's ability to attract free agents (Millsap) and identifying under-the-radar talent in the draft, something that should continue in the future.

The jump to No. 6 (from No. 19 last year) for players has the Nuggets trending south when it comes to money.

The offseason spending on Millsap and Mason Plumlee has Denver with $105 million (increase of $22 million from the previous season) in committed salary this season. The Nuggets' finances get interesting in 2018 with Gary Harris (if he doesn't sign an extension) and possibly Jokic (team option) restricted free agents eligible to sign long-term and lucrative contracts.

New contracts for both players could push the Nuggets close to the luxury tax in 2018-19.

-- Bobby Marks

(Previous rank: 17)
10. Washington Wizards
Rank Score
Players 6 65
Management 11 55
Money 30 15
Market 15 47.5
Draft 20 40
Overall: 55.6

For the first time in the eight-year history of FPR, the Wizards crack the top 10. Washington's 49 wins last season were their most in more than four decades, and they came within a game of reaching the Eastern Conference finals behind a young core of 27-year-old All-Star John Wall and 24-year-old wings Bradley Beal and Otto Porter.

The Wizards will be relying on the development of their core because big contracts for all three players have pushed them into the luxury tax, giving them the lowest score of any team in the money category. And while Washington has all its future first-round picks, trades have left the Wizards with just one player on a first-round rookie contract (backup wing Kelly Oubre). So the story from last year's Game 7 against the Celtics, where Washington was outscored badly with reserves on the court, could become familiar in the DMV.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 17)

Go to: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30
Troy Wayrynen/USA TODAY Sports
T-11. Utah Jazz
Rank Score
Players 13 55
Management 7 67.5
Money 10 62.5
Market 25 30
Draft 14 47.5
Overall: 55.0

Gordon Hayward's departure via free agency causes the Jazz to slip backward four spots after their best season in recent franchise history, which produced 51 wins and the first playoff series win since 2010.

Even without Hayward, Utah has a star to build around in center Rudy Gobert, who merited an All-Star selection last season. And we have a great deal of faith in the Jazz's management team, ranked sixth overall. After Hayward chose Boston, GM Dennis Lindsey chose a wise path of signing multiple depth pieces to short-term contracts. That gives Utah plenty of options next summer.

Ultimately, the Jazz will have to find a go-to scorer to replace the shot creation lost with Hayward and George Hill both signing elsewhere. If that player is found, Utah will remain competitive through Gobert's prime.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 6)
T-11. Portland Trail Blazers
Rank Score
Players 11 60
Management 9 65
Money 28 20
Market 15 47.5
Draft 17 42.5
Overall: 55.0

After the Blazers won a playoff series and hung tough with the Warriors in 2016, their dip to 41-41 last season felt disappointing. However, there's still reason for long-term optimism in the Rose City.

Weighted by minutes played, Portland's playoff rotation was the youngest among the 16 teams who qualified, and while star guards Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum appear at or near their peak, the midseason addition of center Jusuf Nurkic gives the Blazers' starting lineup more upside.

Portland will have to rely primarily on internal development because, even after shedding the salary of Allen Crabbe this summer, the Blazers are still in the luxury tax. A lucrative new contract for Nurkic -- a restricted free agent next summer if he doesn't sign an extension before the regular season -- could keep them in tax jeopardy for years to come.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 8)
13. Toronto Raptors
Rank Score
Players 9 62.5
Management 10 60
Money 28 20
Market 17 45
Draft 27 22.5
Overall: 53.8

Give Raptors GM Masai Ujiri credit. Faced with a disappointing finish to the season, Ujiri could have dismantled a Raptors team that appeared in four straight playoffs.

Instead of hitting the rebuild button, Ujiri brought back All-Star Kyle Lowry and veteran Serge Ibaka and acquired CJ Miles in a sign and trade. All three players are on three-year contracts that should keep the Raptors afloat in the Eastern Conference for the next three seasons.

The question remains, is there still upside to this current roster?

While one could argue the starting five improved by swapping out DeMarre Carroll for Miles, roster improvement in Toronto will be judged on the back end of the roster with young players like Delon Wright, Norman Powell, Jakob Poeltl, Pascal Siakam and draft pick OG Anunoby. Because of roster restrictions and luxury tax concerns, all five players will need to play a role or Toronto could be a short-lived playoff team.

Staying competitive does come with a cost. Based on salary close to $119 million for the next three seasons, Toronto will need to use Band-Aids to stay out of the luxury tax. The same exercise that Toronto went through this summer when they shipped a 2018 first rounder to Brooklyn to shed the DeMarre Carroll contract could repeat itself if Toronto wishes to stay out of the tax.

-- Bobby Marks

(Previous rank: 10)
14. Los Angeles Clippers
Rank Score
Players 15 52.5
Management 13 50
Money 14 45
Market 4 82.5
Draft 24 32.5
Overall: 52.3

The Clippers fell only six spots from last season even with the trade of All-Star Chris Paul.

The drop in the rankings would have been steeper had the Clippers not turned Paul into Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Sam Dekker, Montrezl Harrell and a first-round pick. Had Paul signed with Houston as a free agent, the player ranking would likely have been in the low 20s.

Now with franchise player Blake Griffin inked to a near max contract and the offseason signing of Danilo Gallinari and Milos Teodosic, the Clippers have retooled, stayed under the luxury tax and now have a roster with a clear direction.

The Clippers' revamped front office will need to be creative in taking advantage of a Los Angeles market that has appeal. With coach Doc Rivers taking a backseat on personnel decisions, lead executive Lawrence Frank and consultant Jerry West have shown this summer that a roster can be overhauled and remain a playoff team.

The potential free agency of DeAndre Jordan (player option) next summer will dictate the Clippers' cap space for the next two summers. If Jordan opts out and goes elsewhere, Los Angeles could go free-agent shopping but at the cost of their All-Star center.

-- Bobby Marks

(Previous rank: 7)
15. Miami Heat
Rank Score
Players 16 50
Management 5 72.5
Money 25 25
Market 4 82.5
Draft 27 22.5
Overall: 52.1

After striking out on Gordon Hayward, the Heat brought back the bulk of the roster that went 30-11 after last season's All-Star break. That came at a high price, with James Johnson (four years, $60 million) and Dion Waiters (four years, $47 million plus bonuses) getting huge raises off last season's bargain rates.

Add in raises for Tyler Johnson and Josh Richardson and Miami will be flirting with the luxury tax in 2018-19. While the Heat believe they can offload contracts to be players in free agency if necessary, that will be easier said than done -- particularly with Miami already out two first-round picks from the Goran Dragic trade.

Since the strong finish to 2016-17 might be difficult to maintain over a full season, the Heat might be looking at a future squarely in the middle of the NBA standings. Amazingly, this is their worst ranking in FPR history.

16. Milwaukee Bucks
Rank Score
Players 9 62.5
Management 23 35
Money 19 37.5
Market 29 17.5
Draft 17 42.5
Overall: 50.4

Somewhat surprisingly, the Bucks make only a modest jump after a successful 2016-17 season that saw the return to the playoffs with the third-youngest rotation of any playoff team.

Led by budding superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee does rank a solid eighth in the player category. The Bucks' overall score is dragged down by a couple of factors. With apologies to fans of beer, bratwurst and cheese, Milwaukee scores low in the market category -- which may not matter much given the Bucks are battling the luxury tax already.

More troubling is the uncertainty in Milwaukee's management structure. Bucks ownership couldn't agree on a replacement for GM John Hammond before settling on unproven, in-house candidate Jon Horst. And persistent whispers suggest the organization isn't sure coach Jason Kidd is the right man for the job.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 22)
17. Los Angeles Lakers
Rank Score
Players 21 37.5
Management 17 45
Money 2 92.5
Market 1 90
Draft 23 37.5
Overall: 47.7

The scoring system for the Future Power Rankings may not accurately capture the reasons for optimism in L.A. after last season's management shakeup positioned the Lakers to be the biggest players in free agency next summer.

Because most teams struggle to build through free agency -- as the Lakers themselves have in recent seasons -- money and market usually play a relatively small role in the final score. However, the Lakers' combination of the top-rated market and the potential to clear more cap space than any other team has them poised to potentially sign a pair of max free agents. James and George? Westbrook? Lakers fans can dream big.

A windfall in free agency might not make the Lakers' young core into instant contenders, but it gives them far more upside by the end of the three-year window than many teams ahead of them.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 25)
18. Detroit Pistons
Rank Score
Players 16 50
Management 19 42.5
Money 17 40
Market 21 40
Draft 13 50
Overall: 47.1

The Pistons appear to have the most middle-of-the-road future of any NBA team, scoring no higher than 50 or lower than 40 in any of the five categories that make up the Future Power Rankings.

We've got more questions about Detroit's roster after a disappointing lottery campaign in which Reggie Jackson was hampered by injury and Andre Drummond took a step backward. And the Pistons don't have much financial flexibility. If they re-sign offseason addition Avery Bradley next summer, they'll surely move into the luxury tax.

While the move into a downtown arena as part of Detroit's rebirth could make the Pistons more attractive to free agents, there's uncertainty about who exactly might be pitching them. Another lottery campaign would put Stan Van Gundy's dual role as head coach and president of basketball operations in jeopardy.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 15)
19. Charlotte Hornets
Rank Score
Players 19 47.5
Management 14 47.5
Money 17 40
Market 23 35
Draft 15 45
Overall: 45.6

How does a Charlotte team that missed the playoffs last year jump one spot from the previous future ranking?

The answer is a combination of coach Steve Clifford and player stability for the foreseeable future. Entering his fifth season, Clifford has proved to be one of the most underrated coaches in the NBA. The combination of Clifford, GM Rich Cho and ownership led by Michael Jordan has the Hornets No. 14 in management and on solid footing.

Past the high marks for management, Charlotte's future is stuck in that in-between phase.

The Hornets rank No. 19 based on the starting five, which includes All-Star Kemba Walker, under contract for the next two seasons. While the Hornets are good enough to compete for a playoff spot, the current roster is stuck in the middle of the pack in the Eastern Conference for the future.

One category to keep an eye on is money, as the Hornets appear to be close to the tax for the next two seasons with $117 million in committed salary. And with Walker eligible for the designated player veteran extension if he were to earn All-NBA this season, cap space in 2019 could be a problem again.

-- Bobby Marks

(Previous rank: 20)
20. Dallas Mavericks
Rank Score
Players 24 30
Management 7 67.5
Money 6 70
Market 10 55
Draft 8 65
Overall: 44.6

The Mavericks were rewarded in the ranking for taking a smart and conservative approach this summer with their roster.

Dallas features many of the same faces that saw the Mavericks miss the playoffs last season. Even with the addition of rookie Dennis Smith Jr., Dallas is likely to miss the playoffs for the first time in consecutive seasons since 1999-2000.

While the rest of the NBA spent this summer, Dallas has cap flexibility now and likely in following summers. The Mavericks with $12.6 million in room can be in the asset acquisition business close to the draft when teams are looking to shed salaries.

With cap room, the addition of Smith, a likely lottery pick and the strong foundation of coach Rick Carlisle and owner Mark Cuban, Dallas should have some bright days ahead even at the expense of missing the playoffs.

-- Bobby Marks

(Previous rank: 26)

Go to: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30
Frederick Breedon/Getty Images
21. Orlando Magic
Rank Score
Players 21 37.5
Management 17 45
Money 12 47.5
Market 14 50
Draft 8 65
Overall: 42.9

Hoping to snap a four-year lottery streak last season, the Magic instead declined by six wins, costing GM Rob Hennigan his job. Orlando replaced Hennigan with the duo of president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman and GM John Hammond, whose task is to find a centerpiece for the next great Magic team.

Unfortunately, a series of lottery picks has yet to yield star talent, though Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton both showed promise in the second half of last season. Worse yet, new contracts for Gordon and Payton -- both restricted free agents next summer if they don't agree to extensions before the start of the regular season -- will likely take Orlando over the cap for the foreseeable future. So even if the Magic do return to the playoffs at some point in the next three years, the ceiling for this group appears limited.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 16)
22. Memphis Grizzlies
Rank Score
Players 20 42.5
Management 19 42.5
Money 19 37.5
Market 25 30
Draft 15 45
Overall: 41.3

After surpassing a pessimistic projection using ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) to reach the playoffs for a seventh consecutive season, the Grizzlies move up six spots. Alas, it's possible we could ultimately view this as a dead-cat bounce.

Again, RPM forecasts Memphis most likely out of the playoffs. And this time, the Grizzlies will be relying on a different core to beat expectations. While stalwarts Mike Conley and Marc Gasol remain, the departure of veterans Tony Allen and Zach Randolph via free agency signals an end to the "Grit and Grind" era.

With big contracts for Conley, Gasol and injury-plagued Chandler Parsons taking Memphis out of free agency for the foreseeable future, the Grizzlies must hit on their draft picks to add young talent to an aging roster. And the top-eight protection on the 2019 first-round pick Memphis traded to Boston could make rebuilding an attractive option in 2018-19.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 28)
23. New Orleans Pelicans
Rank Score
Players 16 50
Management 30 10
Money 22 30
Market 23 35
Draft 11 52.5
Overall: 40.6

Despite pulling off a blockbuster trade for DeMarcus Cousins at the All-Star break, the Pelicans drop six spots from last season.

This has the feel of a make-or-break campaign for the current New Orleans core built around star Anthony Davis. Cousins will be an unrestricted free agent next summer, while GM Dell Demps and head coach Alvin Gentry appear unlikely to survive another season in the lottery. As a result of that shaky job security, the Pelicans receive our lowest score for management.

Given the importance of this season, Solomon Hill's hamstring tear could have significant ramifications. A swing of a game or two might make the difference in whether New Orleans makes the playoffs and stays the course or starts from scratch around Davis.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 17)
24. New York Knicks
Rank Score
Players 23 32.5
Management 28 17.5
Money 10 62.5
Market 3 85
Draft 8 65
Overall: 39.6

After a fourth consecutive lottery season, the Knicks continue to search for a path back to the postseason -- a task complicated by New York's difficulty trading veteran All-Star Carmelo Anthony due to his no-trade clause.

At least the Knicks appear to have found stability in the front office, with Scott Perry joining a promoted Steve Mills. Unfortunately, Perry's arrival came too late for this year's draft -- when Phil Jackson took Frank Ntilikina in large part due to his fit in the triangle, an offense the team won't run after Jackson's firing -- and free agency, when New York overpaid to sign Tim Hardaway Jr.

Despite the Hardaway contract, the Knicks could have cap space in the summer of 2019, and they have all their own first-round picks. So assuming they can repair their relationship with budding star Kristaps Porzingis, there appears to be hope in Gotham City.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 27)
25. Indiana Pacers
Rank Score
Players 25 27.5
Management 25 30
Money 2 92.5
Market 25 30
Draft 7 67.5
Overall: 36.9

The Pacers would be near the bottom of the Future Power Rankings even if All-Star Paul George hadn't been traded. George's uncertain future would have cast a pall over Indiana this season. Now with George gone, Indiana has started the slow rebuild.

The opening roster for that rebuild, however, is a mixed bag of veterans (Thaddeus Young and Al Jefferson), young prospects (Victor Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner) and players signed or acquired who have two years left on their contracts (Bojan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison and Cory Joseph).

The positive is that Indiana ranks in the top 10 in both money (No. 2) and the draft (No. 7).

Even with the bloated $20 million salary of Oladipo, the Pacers have positioned themselves to have cap flexibility for the foreseeable future. The contract structure of Collison, Bogdanovic, Jefferson and Lance Stephenson could see Indiana wipe $35 million off their books next summer.

Though the Pacers could in theory improve their roster in free agency the next two summers, whether they can utilize cap space to sign a marquee free agent remains unknown. As the market in Indiana has proven each summer, the Pacers likely will need to build through the draft to get back into playoff contention.

-- Bobby Marks

(Previous rank: 13)

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26. Phoenix Suns
Rank Score
Players 25 27.5
Management 29 15
Money 6 70
Market 10 55
Draft 2 90
Overall: 36.5

Instead of trading for a veteran star to accelerate their return to the playoffs, the Suns have embraced "the timeline," centered around their young talent: guard Devin Booker (who turns 21 at the end of October) and forwards Dragan Bender (soon to be 20), Marquese Chriss (20) and No. 4 overall pick Josh Jackson (20).

Of course, there are still questions about those prospects. Booker's advanced stats haven't matched his prodigious scoring average, Bender barely played as a rookie, Chriss has struggled to manage his emotions and Jackson's iffy jumper could limit his offensive value.

For a young team, the Suns also have surprisingly little cap space next summer, though that changes in the summer of 2019 when veterans Eric Bledsoe (a trade candidate), Tyson Chandler and Jared Dudley are all free agents. If Phoenix's young talent shows progress, the Suns could again become an attractive destination.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 24)
27. Brooklyn Nets
Rank Score
Players 28 22.5
Management 14 47.5
Money 9 65
Market 6 75
Draft 20 40
Overall: 36.0

There is a light at the end of the tunnel in Brooklyn. For the first time in three seasons, the Nets are not ranked last or next-to-last in the Future Power Rankings. The move up to No. 27 is from a combination of timing, shrewd management and flexibility.

Brooklyn still finds itself toward the bottom based on a roster of developing draft picks (Caris LeVert, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Jarrett Allen) and new players (Timofey Mozgov, Allen Crabbe, DeMarre Carroll and especially D'Angelo Russell) looking for a fresh start.

The offseason additions took a bite out of the Nets' future cap space, though flexibility remains to improve their roster in free agency. The Nets could have $30 million in room next year and close to $60 million the following year.

Brooklyn has cracked the top 15 in management for the first time. Sean Marks has proved to be one of the most aggressive and creative GMs in the NBA. After being shut out of the free-agent market in the previous two summers, Marks has found a way to build the Nets through the trade front while also acquiring future assets.

Even without their own first-round pick next June (traded to Cleveland via Boston), Brooklyn is likely to have to two picks in the top 40, a first rounder from Toronto and second from the Pacers. With the Boston trade a soon-to-be-distant memory (or nightmare), Brooklyn will have the opportunity in future years to add an impact player in the draft, something they have not been able to do in previous Junes.

-- Bobby Marks

(Previous rank: 29)
28. Atlanta Hawks
Rank Score
Players 29 17.5
Management 23 35
Money 5 80
Market 20 42.5
Draft 1 95
Overall: 34.2

Stuck in the middle is an unwelcome place in the NBA today.

In Atlanta, the past two seasons showed a team focused on the now and not the long-term picture. Case in point: Atlanta declined to move All-Stars Al Horford and Paul Millsap at the past two trade deadlines only to lose them in free agency five months later.

Now with the hiring of former Warriors assistant GM Travis Schlenk, there is a clear direction, even if the Hawks dropped six spots in the rankings from last year.

The Hawks rank 29th in players, in part by design. In position to use cap space, Atlanta put an emphasis on short-term contracts with the additions of Dewayne Dedmon, Mike Muscala and Marco Belinelli. Combined with starters Dennis Schroder and Taurean Prince, Atlanta in a full rebuild.

The good news for the Hawks is that there is a clear path to rebuilding. The Hawks rank in the top five in both money and the draft. Atlanta could have five first-round picks in the next two years. The Hawks are projected to finish in the lottery and also have the Timberwolves' (protected 1-14) and Rockets' (top-3 protected) picks next June.

Atlanta could have $35-40 million in cap space to spend or roll it over to the summer of 2019, when they have the Cavaliers' first (top-10 protected) and their own first in the draft.

-- Bobby Marks

(Previous rank: 23)
29. Sacramento Kings
Rank Score
Players 25 27.5
Management 26 22.5
Money 6 70
Market 28 25
Draft 11 52.5
Overall: 32.1

Team turmoil is now replaced by the youth movement in Sacramento. After seasons dominated by the departure of George Karl and the uncertain future of DeMarcus Cousins, the Kings have finally found stability (at least for now).

The jump of only one spot to No. 29 might not show significant progress, but Sacramento should continue to climb in the rankings if they do not skip the steps of rebuilding.

The offseason additions of George Hill, Zach Randolph, Vince Carter and lottery pick De'Aaron Fox bumped the Kings to No. 25 in players, up four spots from the previous ranking. The three veterans come at a high cost but with short-term contracts. Sacramento is well positioned with cap flexibility for the next two seasons.

With the potential of $50 million in cap space in 2019, Sacramento could be a landing spot for free agents if the young roster develops and Kings management doesn't regress to its past instability. Until then, the jury is still out on the Kings.

-- Bobby Marks

(Previous rank: 30)
30. Chicago Bulls
Rank Score
Players 30 15
Management 27 20
Money 1 97.5
Market 10 55
Draft 6 77.5
Overall: 31.3

From March 2010 through September 2015, the Bulls never ranked outside our top 10, but it has been a rapid fall since then that culminates in Chicago coming in last this time around.

The Bulls signaled their intent to rebuild by trading Jimmy Butler for a package of flawed young prospects (guards Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine) and a lottery pick (forward Lauri Markkanen). While Chicago could jump-start that process next summer, when the team could have nearly $40 million in cap space -- a projection that ranks third behind the Lakers and Hawks -- it's unlikely a star free agent will want to join the baby Bulls.

More realistically, Chicago will build slowly from within. The Bulls must hit on a high draft pick to find a centerpiece for their next great team, and we've lost faith in their management team, ranked 27th.

ill post you up bro don't wanna see me 1v1 on the court

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