Quote (Sixers @ Nov 10 2017 06:37pm)
Has Joel Embiid been the best two-way player this season?
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 9, 2017
Micah Adams
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We tend to think of the best two-way players as versatile wings who can get buckets as No. 1 options while also locking down the opposing team's best scoring threats across multiple positions. LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Paul George -- those kinds of superstars.
Although Joel Embiid can do a little bit of everything, he affects the game in different ways than those aforementioned kings of versatility. He might not fit the mold of your typical "best two-way player," but his impact on both ends through eight games is outstanding.
Embiid's two-way dominance begs the question: Has he actually been the best two-way player in the game this season?
Defense
Over his first three seasons in the NFL, from 2011 to 2013, Richard Sherman easily led all players in interceptions as he quickly developed a reputation as the league's premier cornerback. So dominant was the Seahawks DB that quarterbacks essentially stopped throwing his way. Due to his strong reputation, opposing teams only passed to his area of the field 100 times during the entire 2014 season -- the lowest total in the league, as outlined by Robert Mays.
Now, go back to the third quarter of the Pistons-76ers game on Oct. 23. Andre Drummond got position in transition on Embiid on the right block. He posted up, received the entry pass from Reggie Jackson, immediately gathered and went up with a lefty jump hook. He missed.
According to player tracking by Second Spectrum, that's the only time anyone has tried posting up Embiid the entire season. One measly post-up -- not even in a half-court set -- in 221 total minutes he's been on the floor. (For reference, there have been about 10.7 post-ups per game this season, according to Second Spectrum data.)
In a way, Embiid has become the NBA equivalent of Sherman, so dominant in his domain that nobody even bothers throwing in his direction. That respect is built on the back of a 31-game sample from last season during which he was statistically the NBA's most dominant rim protector.
So why would teams be afraid of posting up The Process? Per Second Spectrum, opponents shot just 36 percent on 224 shots inside the paint when contested by Embiid. Not only did that rank best among the more than 400 players who contested at least 25 of those attempts, it was significantly better than that allowed by both Draymond Green and Rudy Gobert (last year's top contenders for Defensive Player of the Year).
The adjustment opponents have made in attacking Embiid is especially notable when comparing similar early adjustments that were made with respect to Green and Gobert. Though players are also attempting fewer shots than a year ago with them as a closest defender, the dropoff hasn't been nearly as stark as it's been for Embiid.
Shots against per 100 possessions
Player 2016-17 2017-18 % decrease
Rudy Gobert 24.5 21.3 13
Draymond Green 23.2 18.0 22
Joel Embiid 25.3 17.4 31
According to Second Spectrum
Looking at Embiid's impact through the prism of team defensive performance paints an even more flattering picture. Early on this season, the 76ers are holding teams to just 47 percent shooting inside the paint with Embiid on the floor, a figure that would easily lead the NBA. When he subs out, that interior defense transforms from the best in the league to the worst, allowing 59 percent shooting in the paint, which would rank dead last. That 12 percent swing in field-goal percentage allowed in the paint dwarfs those seen by Gobert's Jazz and Green's Warriors, both of whom have stayed within a single point when subbing out.
Yes, it's still very early, but any sort of first to worst swing involving sample sizes that range in the hundreds of minutes is indicative of something major going on.
Even outside of his interior lockdown, Embiid's defensive numbers stand out. Philly has been a top-3 defense with him on the floor (with a 97.8 defensive rating) and a bottom-10 defense when he sits (105.3), according to NBA.com/Stats. He's also No. 2 in Basketball Reference's defensive box plus-minus.
Offense
Early in the first quarter of Philadelphia's preseason game against the Heat, Embiid drew the third foul on Hassan Whiteside and promptly motioned to the Miami bench with the words, "He can't guard me."
In fairness to Whiteside, hardly anyone can, especially down on the block.
Embiid lives in the post, ranking third in the NBA in total post-ups, according to player tracking from Second Spectrum, despite missing two games and playing just 46 percent of Philadelphia's total minutes thus far. His 22.2 post-ups per 100 possessions are easily the most in the NBA, while he's posted up more than 13 entire teams.
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Not only does Embiid post up more than anyone, he's also the NBA's most effective scorer when he does it, regardless of whether he shoots or passes out. According to Second Spectrum, Embiid's 1.17 points per direct post -- any involving a shot, turnover, drawn foul or assist opportunity -- is the best among the top 20 in total post-ups. Consider that teams are scoring about .908 points per play in the half-court on average, according to Cleaning the Glass, and Embiid's post-up efficiency looks even better, since half-court offense is difficult to generate.
We already knew he could score as evidenced by the fact that he averaged the second-most points per 36 minutes by a rookie in NBA history last season (behind only Wilt Chamberlain). That aspect of his league-leading efficiency on direct actions in the post shouldn't come as much of a surprise. The key ingredient behind his now Michelin-rated post game is his newfound ability to find others playing off of him. Though the assist totals may not seem eye-popping, Embiid's assist rate of 23.8 is nearly identical to that of Nikola Jokic and better than that of Blake Griffin and Kevin Durant, among others.
His increased effectiveness as a facilitator, combined with the presence of cutters like Ben Simmons and shooters like J.J. Redick and Robert Covington, make an already difficult choice for defenses seemingly impossible. Send extra help, and he'll simply find an open option. Leave Embiid's defender on an island, and he'll go to work -- the door that, for now, most teams are choosing. According to Second Spectrum, only nine of his direct posts have been against a double team. With single coverage, Embiid's 1.22 points per direct post -- shocker! -- leads the NBA.
As it stands, the only real hope teams have is that he still hasn't bucked his proclivity for turnovers. Embiid averages more turnovers per 36 minutes than any player over the past 40 years, while he's now coughing it up on 20 percent of his possessions, up from 18 percent a season ago. The decision not to send extra help could be steeped in the belief that if you play Embiid straight up with everyone staying home, he'll turn it over enough times to tip the math in the defense's favor over the long haul.
Final verdict
All things considered, the fact that Embiid still isn't seeing the floor for even half of his team's total minutes precludes him from truly entering the conversation for best two-way player. We are still dealing with a limited sample size here (78 total direct post-ups, for instance, according to Second Spectrum).
It's also why another area for improvement -- Embiid's propensity for fouling -- has yet to become much of a problem, as he simply hasn't had the burden of learning to play in foul trouble for the sake of staying on the floor for 40 minutes in high-leverage situations. It's one thing if he's limited due to an imposed minutes restriction. It's another if his own play keeps him saddled on the bench.
Until he gets them under control, the combination of fouls and turnovers will likely keep Embiid from climbing any two-way, all-encompassing leaderboard.