Quote (ampoo @ 25 Sep 2017 13:24)
inb4 fender
thanks for the input and it sounds perfectly reasonable
do they want independence just for its own sake then or more rights from the government in madrid?
do you think there is a way to avoid more trouble?
maybe you understand what i am getting at, i can see some real potential for a "catalan ETA" in the future
The majority of separatists want independence because they think catalonia deserves certain rights and a status they do not have in Spain. It's a bit of a vague answer, because that encompasses a lot of things, but like I said I'd need some time to go into the details as it's important to understand certain historical developments, from the Middle Ages to the 20th century.
This new wave started basically because the centre-right nationalist government had trouble facing the financial crisis, and ordered huge budget cuts. When protests arised, they blamed it on the spanish government ignoring the needs of the catlan people by giving them insuficient funds. Negotiations went on between the regional and national governement, but after no agreement was reached (mostly because both sides were adamant on an issue regarding a constitutional change to allow Catalonia to have their own financial taxing system, completely independent from the national one), the catalan government shifted to separatism.
In reality they did it with hopes that it would put them in a position of negotiation power, and not because they wanted a true independence (obviously that would be a huge backslash for the catalan economy... exiting the EU, losing foreign investment, having to build the infrastructures Spain builds for them, etc... it's not something most politicians or mid-high class and educated people would want to go through, regardless of their national sentiment). It has gotten a bit out hands now though... people who do want an actual independence today hold more power within the ruling parties there, so it's harder to stop the issue with some simple negotiations right now. However, I'm certain that still right now, the separatist movement would cool down significantly if the spanish government gave in to those initial demands.
There are probably two ways of completely solving the issue, and both require changing how the spanish state works:
A short term solution (and the easiest one, as most short term solutions) would be to give in to many of their demands, change the constitution and give Catalonia a special status within Spain (not just in the financial department... also in the legislative, executive, cultural, etc branches). I'm sure the vast majority of separatists will take that. The far-left Podemos party supports this. The centre left PSOE is torn on this subject (their current leader, Pedro Sánchez, wants a moderate and yet to be specified version of this... but the highly powerful andalusian branch of the party is completely against it). The other two main parties, centre-right PP and centre Ciudadanos, are both against it. At least for now. The main issue here is that I guarantee you that a referendum that would bring even more asymmetry among regions would not go through.
A long term solution, would be to leave political negotiations aside and enforce the laws and procedures that are in check, which would result in the Catalan government losing part of its autonomy due to its fraudulent use of it (for instance education, where the official text books literally say things like "Catalonia is a
country within the spanish state" and lots of historical inaccuracies like calling the calling the Kingdom of Aragón the Catalan-Aragonese Kingdom, or referencing medieval legendary events which never actually happened involving catalan armies battling, etc). And work towards, "re-educating" the people. Also, the state would need to be much more involved in day-to-day catalan life. For instance, the government should visit much more often, and minor things like the Copa del Rey final, the cyclist Vuelta, etc (which the nationalist catalan governemnts over the decades have asked to be kept outside of Catalonia) should happen there as well, in order to help catalans feel more integrated in Spain. The reason this has never been done, despite the catalan governemnt spending 40 years playing outside the boundaries of spanish laws and the supreme court suggesting that actions should be taken, is that the way the national election system works, catalan nationalist parties have almost always played a keydecisive role in forming the spanish government, and both PP and PSOE have had to appease them and let them do whatever they wanted in Catalonia.
Neither of the solutions are particularly good, and both would be painful in different ways. A sort of balance will probably have to be found. New regional elections would be desirable, as that could open a new scenario if the separatists gain or lose power.
Meanwhile, president Rajoy is pretty much just waiting. Doing what the supreme court tells him to do, but avoiding actions in any direction for the most part. This has led to heavy criticism from both ends of the spectrum... the ones who want laws to be abided say he's not doing enough to enforce the laws, and the ones who want him to make concessions say he doesn't want to negotiate. To be honest, both sides are right. His lack of action over these years is much of the reason things have come to this. Had he either enforced the laws or caved to more of their demands, this probably wouldn't have happened.
I really don't think a cata lan ETA would form. Basque mentality and history is different from catalan history, and since Franco died 42 years ago already, democracy and freedom of speech is part of spanish culture. The idea of killing for your ideas is pretty much inconceivable now. Perhaps we could see a rise in organized vandalism and assaults, similar to the ones carried out by antifa and neonazi groups all around the world. But not a real terrorist problem with bombs and weapons.