Ole Miss | Texas Tech OVER 67 [2.2 / 2.0]
Shea Patterson has gotten all the headlines this offseason with his transfer to Michigan but uhhhh the guy who replaced him is kinda better. He led a wildly successful Rebel offense down the stretch and because of the Ole Miss bowl ban he then suited up and played lefty for Bama in the second half of the natty. Kid is a stud.
So boy is back and he has sick receivers and he gets to play a defense which is Texas Tech and I'm going to call their first Kliff top-100 defense in 2017 the exception and not the rule. So we got two sure top-15 pass rate, top-30 pace, and bottom-40 defensive teams squaring off indoors and the total is below 70. Yes, give me two of those.
Ole Miss also boasts a better top to bottom roster and more key returning production, and the surest thing on the field in Houston -- Ta'amu to Brown. So we're also taking:
Ole Miss +2.5 [1.1 / 1.0]
Parlay Ole Miss +3 & O67 [0.5 / 1.16]
YOUR THURSDAY NIGHT ITCH
Purdue was fun last season until they weren't (OK it was just like week 4). The better Big 10 defenses held Purdue to 13 points or less five times last season, probably a mix of Brohm's new offense being figured out and the talent level was not suited for a top-15 pass rate air raid. Good news: Sindelar is back and healthier, and the offense should be improved in Brohm year two. Bad news: the defense carried the Boilers back to bowl season and everyone is gone.
Ol' PFitty and tCats were one of the teams that "figured" out Purdue last year. I like Thorson more than I should and Larkin is an explosive upgrade over Jackson as the every down back. The line is oozing experience. The bar is set pretty low for PFitty offenses but this one could be a solid top-40 efficiency offense if Thorson figures it out in his final year of eligibility and Larkin stays healthy. On paper, Cats should rack up a nice play advantage against a green Purdue defense and frustrate the home fans.
Where this could go wrong: Northwestern has started slow each of the last two seasons the defensive losses were on the back end, as they face a pass-heavy offense with a returning QB at home on a weeknight.
But we'll take the better, tougher, balanced team.
Northwestern +1.5 [1.1 / 1.0]
Parlay NW +1.5 & U51 [0.25 / 0.65]
YOUR FRIDAY NIGHT LITE CAN WHITE CAN WATCH PARTY
Stanford is annually bottom-5 in pace and SDSU is annually bottom-20. Both will be top-30 in run rate. You're gonna crack open white can after lite can and watch this fucking clock. Enjoy.
SDSU | Stanford UNDER 49 [1.1 / 1.0]
FADE THE REVENGE ANGLE
Shhh don't tell anyone but Maryland has been recruiting at a top-30 level for a whole class now. Everyone plays the "our injuries ruined our season" game but injuries absolutely did ruin Maryland's season in 2017. They're healthy and sneaky loaded on offense. New OC Matt Canada is back in his wheelhouse of leading sneaky loaded offenses with low expectations. Unless you believe Hermdawg is tGOAT and the year two jump is enormous, then laying double digits here is absurd. (Just thought about it for a second and he may be a goat and Horns may make an enormous jump.)
I have a hard time envisioning Texas getting 2 TDs of separation with Ehlinger at QB and a lack of explosive playmakers around him. The line should be solid and the Horns should grind first downs and the W but the Terps certainly have enough to hang around.
Maryland +14 [1.1 / 1.0] & +375 [0.2 / 0.75]
Parlay Maryland +14 & U56.5 [0.25 / 0.65]
PLAY THE REVENGE ANGLE
I get that Troy lost Silvers but 11 points here at home? Both offenses struggled in last year's matchup, both likely will again as the defenses are a step ahead of the offenses, especially considering Boise lost Cedrick Wilson, the only explosive piece of the 2017 offense, and as mentioned Troy lost its four year starting QB. Boise's offensive balance should get them the W here but this game will likely not feature many big plays or points.
Troy +11 [1.1 / 1.0] & +320 [0.2 / 0.64]
Under 50 [1.1 / 1.0]
Parlay Troy +11 & U49.5 [0.4 / 1.04]
IF WASHINGTON WINS THEY'RE IN THE PLAYOFFS
But I have no idea if Washington will win. Gus Malzahn offenses that get off schedule are so, so incredibly bad. And Kerryon Johnson is gone. And Stidham, already one of the most-sacked QBs in 2017, loses both of his tackles. Washington will almost certainly field a top-10 defense again. And this game is not in Jordan Hare Stadium.
On the flip side, if you stop Gaskin from running wild the Washington offense has been plain mediocre on big stages. Auburn should field one of the best front 7s in the country and I have my doubts Dub can win on the perimeter. I expect this one to be more of slog than one would expect out of a Malzahn-Peterson matchup. No feel on the side, but we'll bet against points.
Auburn | Washington UNDER 48.5 [1.1 / 1.0]
I LIKE NOTRE DAME AND I BET ON THEM FREQUENTLY
Notre Dame -1 [1.1 / 1.0]
JUST LET ME BET ON SEPTEMBER SUMLIN
Just let me bet with eyes and gut here. Year 1 Sumlin. September Sumlin. Khalil Tate and a bunch of other fast guys in blue jerseys I can't name running against Mormons in white jerseys. I will always appreciate Kalani Sitake for going for 2 and the win against Utah two years ago to preserve my side and total bets rather than go to OT, but this man has no fucking clue what he is doing. Somehow, Tanner Mangum still has eligibility and a starting job and that also makes me feel good inside.
Arizona -11.5 [1.1 / 1.0]
I CAPPED THIS GAME LAST YEAR AND WAS WRONG SO I'M TRYING AGAIN
I bet the under in last year's Marshall vs Miami-OH opener. It lost by less than a touchdown. There were three (THREE!) non-offensive touchdowns in that game. Let's try this again...
Marshall | Miami-OH UNDER 51 [1.1 / 1.0]
Parlay Marshall -1 & U51 [0.25 / 0.65]
RICHT IS COACHING IN MIAMI WHY ISN'T THE WHOLE TEAM SUSPENDED WEEK 1
Goatee Mark Richt is winning a lot games but staying inconsistent enough to keep you on your toes just like Good Christian Mark Richt. Miami is a hype team of the offseason and polled top 10 -- feels familiar. There's no discernible talent gap here and the best coach on the field will be wearing purple for at least 12 more games. Miami laying 3.5 on a neutral field feels like an overrated/underrated situation, and 48 is nearly a touchdown high unless Ensminger brings the pace forward 40+ spots.
LSU +3.5 [1.1 / 1.0] & +145 [0.4 / 0.58]
UNDER 48 [1.1 / 1.0]
Parlay LSU +4 & U48 [0.4 / 0.98]
I SHOULDN'T BET THIS GAME BUT IT'S THE ONLY GAME ON
I think Taggart is an excellent fit at FSU and the roster he inherits immediately fits his style moreso than Jimbo's pro-style, bottom-20 pace. I'm making some efficiency enhancement assumptions to get myself some Monday night action but if the FSU OL can just be average, this one could get ugly under the lights at Doak. I like Fuente but he just doesn't have the horses. I believe Jackson has a low ceiling at QB and there's no electric playmakers to boost him.
FSU -7.5 [1.1 / 1.0]
This post was edited by Degens on Aug 30 2018 08:38am