Either DJ or Bell.

Wouldn't consider Zeke before either one of them regardless of the league type. I'd give the edge to Bell simply because of that offense, who knows how Palmer is going to do this year. Although DJ had a monster year last year so maybe that doesnt matter as much?

I think Zeke is the safest option for standard formats. Bell has the most upside, he's still young and he's an absolute monster, but he doesn't have nearly as much help as Zeke does. Zeke is guaranteed to average you 20 to 25 points a game in standard formats, and he'll probably never score below 15 on the year. Bell has shown that it is possible to give him a rough time on the ground. Zeke won't put up many 40 to 50 point games,maybe 1 all year, 2 if he's lucky, and Bell if healthy should pull off 3 to 4 of those. PPR bell needs to go first no matter what, especially with how he finished the season last year. I'm concerned Ben will be airing the ball out more often than not to try and silence his critics, this could potentially hurt Bell's numbers.

It could go the other way of course, but I assume things will be somewhat similar to last year and Zeke will have close to double the number of TDs Bell has. Bell will have more all purpose yards and with reception points, he'll bridge the TD differential and outscore Zeke.

Johnson was also an absolute monster last year. He has more all purpose yards and TDs than Bell and Zeke last year and that was with AZ sucking shit most of the season. Part of that was due to them still working the fucker in garbage time and I'm always nervous about using my first pick on anyone who plays for a buster team. I have no fucking clue how AZ will perform, while I feel confident PITT and DAL will have 10+ win seasons. AZ could win 4 or fucking 14, I'm having a really tough time assessing their strength this year based on what I've seen the past two seasons. That's why I've got Johnson below Bell and Zeke, even though he out performed them both last year.

Another thing to consider is strength of schedule. The Steelers are coming in tied at 27th, while Dallas is tied at 10th, and this can be a HUGE factor for how many points your RB nets you each week. Arizona is also lucky with a pretty easy road at 23rd.

In the end, there's no possible way of knowing, but here's how I'll be drafting this year should I get that a top 3 pick or should any of these guys fall further. I've got my family & friends PPR league I'm in for sure and then I'll probably sign up for some crazy Randy leagues if I can get in.

PPR - Bell > Johnson > Zeke
Standard - Zeke > Bell > Johnson
PPC - Zeke > Johnson > Bell

I'm high as fuck on all these guys and outside of these 3, I'll be going WR in the first as I don't see any other RBs being worth what a top 3 WR is worth.

Can pretty much agree with your whole post

Yea - Top 3 in RB/WR for me at least... Bell/Zeke/DJ & Julio/Brown/Evans... I'd take Evans over OBJ.

This post was edited by Garz97 on Jun 4 2017 02:35am

assuming last year as a baseline, yes i agree, but to me the cowboys could be just as unpredictable next year as the cards were last year

high expectation but then a drop off. does dak regress? because if he does zeke could suffer when teams load the box. i know they have that line, but still. witten is old as shit (did he retire?) and dez is a bitch lol

i think for me it's gotta be bell or DJ

keep in mind DJ is a former track star too, dude is built like a tank and can move

This post was edited by stuartg85 on Jun 6 2017 09:51am

Oh, yeah for sure... for me its Bell / DJ / Brown / Julio / Zeke / Evans in that order ( I only play PPR )

I've had DJ the past 2 seasons, considering how bad arizona was last year and the year he had... id be confident taking him over pretty much anyone except Bell.

This post was edited by Garz97 on Jun 6 2017 02:38pm

is josh doctson worth a look?

I am part of a 14 man FF league, standard except for QB TD's are worth 6 points instead of the usual.

Outside of the top 6(rb's/wr's), would it be safe to pick a top tier QB? maybe 10th pick? (the order has not been determined yet). Or go with the wait many rounds til QB?

There are just so fucking many good QBs who put up insane numbers now.

Last year you had Tier 1

Brees. Ryan, Rodgers

Tier 2 - Only slightly worse

Rivers, Cousins, Luck,

And then about 20 other guys who are about the same.

If you want to take a shot on Brees, Ryan, Rodgers or Brady early, I think it's worth it in a 6 point passing league, but outside of them, I wouldn't waste your time. Brees is also a little risky due to him having a fairly depleted WR corps. They still don't have much of a defense and he should be airing it out a lot to compensate for that. I'd still guess he'll finish a top 5, even without a top 15 WR on his team.

Ryan is solid, but last year was his best season by a HUGE margin. I don't know if I'd be 100% confident in his ability to put up the same numbers. Still though, nothing has really changed, they still have a stupidly stacked offense and Ryan should be good for another 4.5k passing/ 30 TD season without trying too hard.

Rodgers is the guy you can always rely on. If he's healthy, and he's usually healthy, he'll be playing his fucking tits off and making fantasy owners cream themselves. I love Rodgers for fantasy and just to watch, he's probably my favorite QB of all-time behind Brady.

Then we have Brady. It's hard to say what he'll do, but I think you can be sure that even at 40, he's going to have one of his best seasons of his career this year. His offense is insanely stacked, he's still got the best coach in NFL history on his side, and in case the offense wasn't overpowered enough, they just added a true top 10 WR to their roster. Brady to Cooks could be insane. I think Brady is in for a huge season. NE also boasts a competent defense which should allow for the ball to be in Brady's hands more often than not, we all know BB doesn't give a fuck and will run the score up, making Brady, Cooks and Gronk smart picks for fantasy.

Outside of those guys, I don't trust anyone else to waste a super early pick on. One of any other dozen QBs could step up and outscore some or all of these guys, but I like the odds of these 4 being in the top 10, if not all in the top 5.

Yes. He is going way later than Pryor and crowder most likely.

The redskins at worst are going to force him the ball in the red zone. We saw it last year In his brief playing time. They like him a lot as a jump ball guy. I'm hoping with a healthy offseason he grows some more as a receiver but my guess is he will be targeted heavily as to show they didn't waste a 1st round pick on a receiver.

Cousins spreads the ball out a lot. I would expect to see a 850+ yard season with 8+ tds. i wouldn't surprised to see a more inflated td number than that - thinking like 12 or so

When is everyone taking a QB? What are some solid late round QBs that are worth grabbing and still be productive. My big money league gives 6 points per passing TD. Thinking about possibly grabbing one early this year.