Bashar al-Assad, April, 7th, 2014: I'm not Yanukovich, I'm here to stay

This post was edited by Norlander on Dec 8 2024 12:41pm

Israel should do every effort to redeem itself from the Gaza situation and to form coalition with US, Europe , the Saudis and more to form a good enough power to block Iran, China, North Korea and Russia.
In that coalition Israel should be the spearhead, in case anything will come from east while the rest should actively support not only by providing money and weapons but also with boots on the ground.
This is the only scenario that Israel can still exist in the ME. Of course that when you have that kind of alliance I don’t expect WWIII rather than small wars that Israel will have to endure from time to time.
My opinion anyways.

This post was edited by WhiteSouned on Dec 8 2024 12:46pm

That's short term thinking. Long-term, USA and Europe are far away, their influence is going to diminish considerably. You're a tiny population. As soon as Iran gets nuclear weaponry, it'll be only a question of time before they'll become dominant in the region (you can look up history, Iran/Persia or whatever it was at any point dominated the region when their population was high). Turks are the natural counter - balance. Hopefully, you'll have good ties with your neighbours until then. BTW., Saudis are going to weaken considerably as well with their tiny population. The world is turning away from fossil energy.

On other news, Blinken and Fidan(Turkish foreign minister) discussed the situation in Syria. Turkyie is going to create a "buffer zone" just like Russia with Ukraine and Israel with western Syria In practice, Kurds are going to get shafted again. That's the territory they control (almost one third of Syria). They've got the green light from Blinken (the so called Syrian Democratic Forces => Kurds)

This post was edited by babun1024 on Dec 8 2024 01:10pm

I agree with most of you guys. Yes, the Assad regime had already been on the verge of defeat back in 2015 and only clung to power thanks to being propped up by its allies Russia and Iran - and with these allies super weakened, the Assad regime was ripe for the taking. Nonetheless, the utter collapse was still astonishing. And yes, this was clearly a professionally planned and prepared operation, and there were most definitely backroom deals involved.

Aside from Assad himself, Iran and Hezbollah are the biggest losers, but I wouldn't put the Kurds too far behind them. The Turkish-backed SNA is already steamrolling the Kurds in the northeast and its clearly only a matter of time until the pockets of Kurdish independence/autonomy right on Turkey's doorstep will be gone. Turkey is far and away the biggest winner of these events, particularly if they can repatriate most of the 3m Syrian refugees they had housed and which had become an increasing burden in recent years.

Russia is also an underrated loser in this, imho. They are now in a similar situation as the West after the fall of Kabul in 2021: after a decade-long military engagement, they got nothing to show for it. Their only ally in the region has fallen and they will have to make concessions to even just cling to their naval base in Tartus. I also wouldn't put too much stock in promises by al-Julani. His primary focus right now is obviously to consolidate his power, Tartus is just an afterthought. I wouldn't put it past him to just overrun it once he has cemented his power.

The big question mark right now is whether there will be violence or even ethnic cleansing of the religious minorities in Syria; the Alawites, Christians, Druze etc. IF, and that's a big if, there is no widespread violence and Syria is stable and comparatively peaceful once the dust settles, Europe could actually also end up being one of the winners because a sizable chunk of Syrian refugees can return home.

For now, I'm sceptical though. Al-Julani and his comrades are very obviously trying to strike a conciliatory tone and avoid any bad PR right now because they want the rest of the world to stay out of Syria while they consolidate their power. But these are islamists/jihadists after all, they aren't known for their tolerance or their fondness of minority rights. I fully expect Syria to remain a dictatorship, rather than a pluralistic society. The best the secular or non-Sunni Syrians can imho hope for is to be left alone as second-class citizens, as opposed to getting outright genocided.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Dec 8 2024 01:54pm

Al-Julani wants sharia law. Fat chance, he is going to cleanse the region of "heretics".

Yeah, that's my fear as well. On the other hand, he seems to be an opportunist, so I wouldn't be surprised if what he truly wants the most is power. And I think the risks and friction would be too high if he tried to kill or expel all "infidels". You're right about Sharia law, though, which again ties into my expectation that the Christians, Alawites etc might be allowed to become second-class citizens with dhimmi status.

Looks like Trump just wants to watch and let them fight. Can't complain with that.

these syrians here are not returning lmao

except a few that will just not happen, they would actually have to work there

western governments will just find new excuses for them to stay and if our jihadist friends do what they usually do we are getting some more

turkey is indeed the winner, there can send refugees back and i guess many people are actually willing to go there compared to europe

Send a link I want to see where you come up with that information which is unfortunately completely false

This post was edited by Many_Names on Dec 8 2024 11:00pm

Trump is a noninterventionalist and this is low on his priorities with a full plate. Russia is unable to project strength. As is the IDF and Iran as they lose their foothold Nature abhors a power vacuum. Whether its the second rise of ISIS or another world power inserting itself, the outcome will not be advantageous to the US. Has the fall of an organized arab/persian state into anarchy ever?