Russia / Ukraine - Topic

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Apr 30 2024 08:28am

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Apr 30 2024 09:59am)

I think you're overestimating the amount of people from the third world who will be lifted to a "Western lifestyle" in the coming decades. A lot of them will, don't get me wrong, but not multiple billions. Not every place will undergo rapid industrialization and wealth gains like China did during the 90s and 00s.

Also, off-grid technology is better suited to these places anyway. Even today, a ton of poor and/or remote folks in third world countries are buying solar panels for their houses/shacks because it provides them with electricity to charge their phones, radios or run their stoves without relying on an electricity grid, which might be unavailable or unaffordable. Likewise, large parts of Africa as well as the lower classes in Asia and Latin America skipped over desktop pcs and landline internet and went straight to smartphones and mobile internet.

The sea route from the Black Sea ports all the way to China is super long though. Kinda funny how a huge talking point in this thread, roughly 12 to 18 months ago, was that shunning cheap Russian pipeline gas was oh-so-foolish by the Europeans because relying on American LNG supplies which need to be shipped across the Atlantic would be oh-so-expensive - yet now, shipping gas through the Black Sea, the Bosporus, the Mediterranean, the Suez Canal, the Indian Ocean, the Straight of Malakka and the South China Sea is sold as a big strategic gain for China and Russia. ;)

Relying on this route for a sizable chunk of their natural gas supplies would also create a big geostrategic achilles heel for China since Turkey/NATO control the Bosporus and could shut it down in case of a big conflict between the two blocs. Or look at the current issues with the Houthis shelling ships on the Suez Canal route. If Russia and China want to expand their gas trade, it still seems smarter to develop gas fields in Siberia and build pipelines to China from there. Causes staggering upfront costs, yes, but will be much cheaper to operate in the long run and is far more robust to geopolitical conflict.

China isn't their only market. There's other African & Asian markets where their resources are in demand. For example, Europeans are buying more Russian LNG, India imports a lot. Egypt and other Africa and ME countries import a lot of grain, and so on. Western Russia is developed and has the infrastructure to move crude by sea, it's still easier than trying to develop some massive pipeline in their under-developed far-east that would take a lot of investment and probably years to finalize. It's happening, it just takes time though.

Also you're severely overstating Turkey's alignment with the west. NATO does not control the Bosporus, Turkey does, and Turkey has deep economic ties with Russia, it would take a gargantuan shift in geopolitics for Turkey to try and deny Russia entry/exit. Houthis are giving a pass to Russian/Iranian/Chinese and whatever other pseudo-allies btw.

This is a good website with charts where where their fossil fuels are going (but lets not forget their grains/metals exports that would also utilize black sea/azov sea ports not included in this).

https://energyandcleanair.org/january-2024-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Apr 30 2024 08:39am

Black XistenZ

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Apr 30 2024 04:25pm

Quote (EndlessSky @ 30 Apr 2024 16:19)

The difference now is that India and China are going to be first-world countries (at least the biggest cities).

And both seem to be able to secure reserves.

The biggest cities in India will continue to consist of 50+% slums, lol. There will be maybe 300-400m Indians moving up to the middle class over the coming decades, out of a peak population which is projected at roughly 1.6bn. And this Indian middle class will in large parts still not have the same living standard, wealth or resource consumption as their North American and European counterparts.

That's a significant development, but nothing that will plunge the world into a mad max like scenario on short notice.

Black XistenZ

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Apr 30 2024 05:00pm

Quote (ofthevoid @ 30 Apr 2024 16:28)

Quote

Houthis are giving a pass to Russian/Iranian/Chinese and whatever other pseudo-allies btw.

Oh really?
https://news.usni.org/2024/03/24/chinese-tanker-hit-with-houthi-missile-in-the-red-sea

Quote

This is a good website with charts where where their fossil fuels are going (but lets not forget their grains/metals exports that would also utilize black sea/azov sea ports not included in this).

https://energyandcleanair.org/january-2024-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/

A good website indeed, thanks for the link! A lot of the stuff on this site supports my arguments more than yours, though. For example, look at this chart:

With regard to natural gas, this doesn't exactly suggest that it will be easy for Russia to replace its European gas customers.

Another example is the decline of Russia's revenue from fossil sales, which was cut in half since its mid-2022 peak:

Remember the discussions we had in this thread when Russia "increased its revenue in spite of the sanctions" and later when Russia posted a balanced budget in spite of going to war? Back then, I argued that the short-term turmoil on the energy markets which had sent prices into the stratosphere had given Russia a one-off surge in revenue, but that the longer-term outlook for them would be far bleaker than that.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Apr 30 2024 05:00pm

ofthevoid

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Apr 30 2024 05:22pm

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Apr 30 2024 07:00pm)

Turkey had been moving away from the West during the Erdogan years, but those are quite clearly coming to an end. Time will tell where they end up once he's gone.

Also, if push comes to shove, Greece can also erect a sea blockade of the shipping lanes coming from the Black Sea since they have no other choice than to pass through Greece's territorial waters. The only way to break such a blockade would be if Turkey openly switches sides, allies with the "authoritarian axis" (Russia/China/Iran) and tries to annex Greek islands like Lesbos, Chios etc. - which would constitute an act of war against a NATO member. Turkey's allegiance might not be reliable, but I have a really hard time seeing them not just betray NATO but openly go to war against them. Long story short: if WW3-like scenario with a major trade war or military conflict between the global West and the "authoritarian axis" breaks out, China, their economic heart, cannot rely on resources which have to be shipped from the Black Sea.

Oh really?
https://news.usni.org/2024/03/24/chinese-tanker-hit-with-houthi-missile-in-the-red-sea

A good website indeed, thanks for the link! A lot of the stuff on this site supports my arguments more than yours, though. For example, look at this chart:
https://i.imgur.com/PamUeeB.png
With regard to natural gas, this doesn't exactly suggest that it will be easy for Russia to replace its European gas customers.

Another example is the decline of Russia's revenue from fossil sales, which was cut in half since its mid-2022 peak:
https://i.imgur.com/nUyYCKe.png

Remember the discussions we had in this thread when Russia "increased its revenue in spite of the sanctions" and later when Russia posted a balanced budget in spite of going to war? Back then, I argued that the short-term turmoil on the energy markets which had sent prices into the stratosphere had given Russia a one-off surge in revenue, but that the longer-term outlook for them would be far bleaker than that.

The Turkey tangent is weird to me. I still don't understand why you keep thinking Turkey or Greece will behave in an openly hostile way towards Russia and deny passage or start to blockade energy or other commodity exports. It makes no sense for them and they have zero to gain and everything to lose.

I don't know what Russia's fossil fuel exports truly look like, but one thing that website is missing is shadow fleet shipments, which have gone parabolic, some estimates put transport by shadow fleet to be upwards of 2mb/pd. For obvious reasons those wouldn't be showing up in their tallied revenue or would buyers self report.

Black XistenZ

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Apr 30 2024 06:21pm

Quote (ofthevoid @ 1 May 2024 01:22)

The argument was that Russia would benefit greatly from holding the resources in the Donbass, to which I replied that the main customer - now that Russia has alienated the Europeans - would be China. Well, that is unless massive industry develops in Africa...
Anyway. My argument then is that if it ever comes to a major conflict, potentially even war, between China & friends on one side and US & friends on the other side, then the US-led bloc can easily shut down this shipping route. Therefore, China - motivated by a desire to reduce geostrategic vulnerabilities - will not want to depend on Russian imports which come via ship from the Black Sea region for a too high share of its supplies. Essentially, they will want to avoid the mistake the Europeans made regarding Russian pipeline gas: creating a dependency whcih your geostrategic foes can easily exploit.

And yes, this is a bit of an esoteric tangent and might sound like a stretch... but from all the strategic moves the Chinese made over the past couple of decades, we can infer with high certainty that they take these kinds of considerations into account.

Quote

I don't know what Russia's fossil fuel exports truly look like, but one thing that website is missing is shadow fleet shipments, which have gone parabolic, some estimates put transport by shadow fleet to be upwards of 2mb/pd. For obvious reasons those wouldn't be showing up in their tallied revenue or would buyers self report.

Fair enough, although I'm not sure if revenue generated this way would really not show up or be included in any of the reports. In any case, the profit margin from these types of sales should be noticeably lower.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Apr 30 2024 06:22pm

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May 2 2024 04:54am