Quote (ofthevoid @ May 14 2018 03:17pm)
This will be flashier than previous years for two reasons imo. It's the 70th anniversary and secondly Trump moved the US embassy to Jerusalem.
What's the probability this blows up? Well, lets look at recent history:
Second Intifada
(2000–2005)
Second Lebanon War
(2006)
Operation Cast Lead
(2008–2009)
Operation Pillar of Defense
(2012)
Operation Protective Edge
(2014)
So according to the recent trend i think we're due for a flare up.
Yeah going by cyclical trends I'd say we're due,
but..
previously intifadas and uprisings have precipitated around single events like Sharon's visit to the Temple Mount, and the US moving its embassy could indeed be such an event, yet the protests in jerusalem proper were completely peaceful and the Gaza border siege can't really go anywhere on its own. If the third intifada was happening, we should be reading about it right now. if palestinians just keep throwing their bodies at the border fence and getting repelled, would that even count? If Israel moves to quell it with an incursion instead of passively sitting on the border, that would make it onto the list.