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Nov 14 2017 12:01pm
Those are all my picks
I'm betting the teams listed to win s/u AND score first (parlay)
Like:
1. My Team to score first and win the game. My $ vs $
and so on

1 BUF 430:2655
2 CLB 220:570
3 MON 175:425
4 DAL 265:755
5 FLA 135:305
6 ARZ 415:2100
7 PHI 355:1315
8 MIN 25:50
9 WAS 300:935
10 NAS 95:200
11 VGS 425:1905
12 VAN 380:1615

a/c non welchers, non 2017 accts, nor ppl listed in my profile
retract = auto loss
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Nov 14 2017 12:11pm
#5 cd
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Nov 14 2017 01:49pm
Taking 3 and 10 cd
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Nov 14 2017 03:54pm
I don't always post, but when I do it is to inform the bettors in this thread that correlated parlays aren't permitted by sports books. Fair warning.


http://www.madduxsports.com/library/sports-betting/dream-of-correlated-parlays.html
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Nov 14 2017 04:29pm
Quote (Nowai @ Nov 14 2017 02:54pm)
I don't always post, but when I do it is to inform the bettors in this thread that correlated parlays aren't permitted by sports books. Fair warning.


http://www.madduxsports.com/library/sports-betting/dream-of-correlated-parlays.html


I'm not overly familiar with this form of betting I'll leave this for tx6 to adress.
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Nov 14 2017 04:32pm
So, how does that translate to long term profit? That requires some simple math. In a two event parlay there are four possible combinations – you win both games, you lose both games, you win the first and lose the second, and you lose the first and win the second. If the point spreads are set reasonably well then in each game there should be about an even chance of ending up on either side of the spread. That means that the likelihood of each one of those four possible outcomes is basically the same – 25 percent. That in turn means that in order for you to break even betting any one of those combinations over the long term you would need odds of 3/1 – and better than that to show a profit. Since two teams parlays typically pay off at about 2.6/1 parlays are typically not a great bet because of their negative expectation – you are losing money in the long term even when you win a parlay bet. When two events are correlated, though, then the percentages change. Let’s say that in our original example the chances of winding up on either side of the 30 point spread is the same. If the favorite covers, though, then it is going to go over the total much more often than it goes under – because the favorite has to cover at least 31 points to cover, so there aren’t that many scores that will allow the favorite to cover and the game to still go under the total. We could say, then, that if the favorite covers there is an 80 percent chance that the game will go over, and a 20 percent chance that it will go over. Overall, then, that means that there is a 40 percent chance that the game will go over and the favorite will cover. That means that 40 percent of the time you parlay the favorite and the over you are going to win. If you made a $100 parlay bet 10 times then you would expect to win four times with a total profit on those wins of $1040. The six losses would cost you a total of $600. That means your profit would be $440.

Interesting i've never thought about this in depth l0l
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Nov 14 2017 04:38pm
The thing is d2jsp isn't a sports book and it's not one user taking in all the bets. So if I feel bet 3 and 6 is for me I'll take it. It's possible no one will take tx's bet 4 and 7 for example so it's not a sure hit (unless he uses the bookie, but that's not my responsibility, host chooses..)
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Nov 14 2017 04:43pm
Quote (h4bs @ Nov 14 2017 06:38pm)
The thing is d2jsp isn't a sports book and it's not one user taking in all the bets. So if I feel bet 3 and 6 is for me I'll take it. It's possible no one will take tx's bet 4 and 7 for example so it's not a sure hit (unless he uses the bookie, but that's not my responsibility, host chooses..)


yeah i still take the bets i just didn't know there was a autistic winning method behind it.
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Nov 14 2017 07:17pm
Quote (Tx6 @ Nov 14 2017 11:01am)
Those are all my picks
I'm betting the teams listed to win s/u AND score first (parlay)
Like:
1. My Team to score first and win the game. My $ vs $
and so on

1 BUF 430:2655
2 CLB 220:570
3 MON 175:425
4 DAL 265:755
5 FLA 135:305
6 ARZ 415:2100
7 PHI 355:1315
8 MIN 25:50
9 WAS 300:935
10 NAS 95:200
11 VGS 425:1905
12 VAN 380:1615

a/c non welchers, non 2017 accts, nor ppl listed in my profile
retract = auto loss


I'm sorry what does it mean if you don't cd my bet before the start of the game idc I still want my bet just wondering because it says retract = loss?

This post was edited by CsixVette on Nov 14 2017 07:17pm
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Nov 14 2017 07:18pm
Quote (CsixVette @ 14 Nov 2017 21:17)
I'm sorry what does it mean if you don't cd my bet before the start of the game idc I still want.my bet just wondering because it says retract = loss?


he said a/c non welchers

so if you aren't a welcher, and you confirmed above, the bet is valid
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