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Jun 9 2017 03:55pm
Quote (Magicman657 @ 9 Jun 2017 22:35)
I suspect you're right, but I think that in doing so, the EU will suffer more damage over the long term than the UK will. I just don't see how the EU wins this.


sorry, but this makes absolutely no sense at all. the EU is much bigger, germany alone is a significantly larger economy than the UK. the EU will definitely stay a globally significant economic powerhouse. please elaborate on your point about the EU not "winning this", whatever that means...

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Jun 9 2017 04:25pm
Quote (fender @ 9 Jun 2017 23:43)
funniest thing i read was "die eiernde lady" (spiegel i think)...


:lol:
i do think sometimes that she sees herself as thatcher reborn

Quote (fender @ 9 Jun 2017 23:39)
i think a solid deal in our interest still DOES have to send a signal that the many advantages you have being a member come at a price, and that leaving the EU is not a decision you should take lightly, depending on how fed up you are with a specific current problem, assuming you could always get special conditions (or even an easy way back in) as long as you're big enough - we obviously SHOULD be interested in keeping this political union stable. of course that should not mean that we impose additional and uncalled for punishment and sanctions - again, it's a fine line to navigate.

could you provide some quotes of "leading EU people" that clearly crossed that line? i'm asking because without any actual proof of that, it just comes across as simple anti-EU rhetoric, something you haven't been a stranger to in the past but i don't want to outright dismiss it since i could very well imagine there would be such people within the EU - there are farages everywhere obviously. i'm just wondering if those are really as important and influential regarding these negotiations as you seem to assume...


my google skills are letting me down right now, everything is flooded with recent news, but politicians like juncker and EU parliament members (who had a pretty clear vote in favour of a tough stance) have made such comments in the direction "they will regret this", all my bias against these bureaucrats put aside for once
not that i blame them, the brexit shock has made quite a few guys shitting their pants in brussels
others speak out against it, i guess it depends on who comes out on top here

"it's a fine line to navigate."

thats a really good way to phrase it, the EU cant afford to look weak if they want to keep things together
and while i reject the bureaucracy monster in brussels i agree that you cant just leave the union, but keep all the benefits
some named numbers are ridiculous, but the uk does indeed owe some serious money, when it comes to pensions for former employees for example

on the other hand i see no way that the special interest groups will let their EU puppets ruin their business and profits

i still have a feeling by the way that a turning away from brexit is still possible, EU related votings have an interesting history
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Jun 9 2017 05:21pm
ok, some random thoughts in random order:



- despite all the criticism, May actually expanded the tory popular vote by 5% or 1 million votes. considering the dreadful campaign she ran, this part of the election result can hardly be called a "win" for the left. same goes for the seats that the snp dropped in scotland: in 2015, the snp picked up a lot of seats which have traditionally been held by labour. the loss of their customary seats in scotland is what caused the disaster for labour in 2015. this time around, the snp dropped a lot of those votes, but the seats which were up for grabs as a result split relatively evenly among tories, labour and libdems. if labour really had a great election night, if they really had a strong backing of the voters going for them, it would have been them and no one else to pick up those seats!


- the major story of this election is that the ukip disintegrated and that the snp suffered heavy losses. combined, those two parties lost around 15% of the vote, which almost completely went to the tories and labour. the tory's increase of 5% proved too little in the end because labour - thanks to a late comeback in the campaign - held on to its traditional electorate and picked up 10-11% of those votes which were up for grabs.


- that those 15% of the vote were split up 2:1 in labour's favour might seem like a big win for labour or a big fail for the tories... but is it really? ukip was synonymous with working-class, lower-income, lower-education brexiteers. aside from the leave/remain cleavage, thats a heavily labour-leaning electorate. same goes for the regions in northern england, which voted relatively heavily in favour of brexit, but are usually labour-leaning.


- a second scottish independence referendum is off the table.


- corbyn's position as leader of the labour party is now safe, but given his age, I dont think he'll ever become prime minister.


- May wont be able to hold on to her power for long. the tories obviously needed to sort themselves on election night and the day after, so it had to be expected that they would allow May to steer the transition and would not dethrone her on day 1. but IMHO this step will be inevitable in some days. the main problem for tory leaders is that there's no obvious alternative to May. Amber Rudd might have been, but due to the very weak mandate she got in her own constituency, she wont be a viable PM.


- the political scene in Northern Ireland saw the disappearance of the "moderate middle", and is now split between the radical Sinn Fein and the radical DUP. since the DUP will be crucial in keeping the tory minority government going, they will have an unusual amount of leverage. combined with the fact that the future modus of operandi in northern ireland is perhaps the single most delicate issue surrounding the brexit process and that sinn fein dont take up their seats, I'm slightly worried that there will be a misrepresentation of the northern irish people in this whole process. I'm afraid that one-sided deals in the direction of what the DUP wants out of brexit for Nothern Ireland might increase tensions by a lot.


- in my opinion, the most glaring outcome of this election is that the british people firmly said NO to a hard brexit. the second most important and/or obvious take-away is that the center of british politics lies to the left of the tory's austerity-neoliberalism-type of conservatism, but probably only slightly. nonetheless, I wouldnt call this electiion result a massive swing to the left either. we cant really disentangle the various effects that played into this result, we dont really know how many percent of labour's gains were due to the voters' approval of corbyn's shift to the left, and how many percent were due to the voter's rejection of a hard brexit and austerity represented by the tories... or simply to the bad campaign May ran.




tldr: May sought a strong majority for a hard brexit and conservative policies. the election, however, set things straight and affirmed that britain remains relatively evenly divided between leavers and remainers as well as the left and the right. and IMHO it made clear that the Brits dont want a hard brexit. in this sense, I consider this election a success from a democratic point of view as I believe that the result of this election comes to closer to representing the true stance of the british people than what May had said and assumed until now.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 9 2017 05:25pm
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Jun 9 2017 08:40pm
She has lost the element of blackmail she had on the EU by threatening to transform its country into a tax and social paradise if its demands were not met. But the British have shown that they do not want a dismantling of the social state.

That was the most important on my eyes :) Thanks you
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Jun 10 2017 07:40am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 10 Jun 2017 01:21)
- May wont be able to hold on to her power for long. the tories obviously needed to sort themselves on election night and the day after, so it had to be expected that they would allow May to steer the transition and would not dethrone her on day 1. but IMHO this step will be inevitable in some days. the main problem for tory leaders is that there's no obvious alternative to May. Amber Rudd might have been, but due to the very weak mandate she got in her own constituency, she wont be a viable PM.


https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article165405932/Ruecktritt-Theresa-May-verliert-ihre-Stabschefs.html

two of her most trusted staff members are gone while boris johnson, rudd and davis are already discussing the future of the tories :lol:
they just wait until things cool down and then she is a goner
RIP

This post was edited by ampoo on Jun 10 2017 07:40am
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Jun 10 2017 09:05am
Quote (ampoo @ 10 Jun 2017 13:40)
https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article165405932/Ruecktritt-Theresa-May-verliert-ihre-Stabschefs.html

two of her most trusted staff members are gone while boris johnson, rudd and davis are already discussing the future of the tories :lol:
they just wait until things cool down and then she is a goner
RIP


That's the Tories for you. Ruthlessly cutthroat. Remember after the eu referendum. Everyone stabbed everyone in the back. Was like a Mexican standoff for a bit then they all just blew eachother away and when the smoke cleared all the biggest contenders were down and May was standing there holding the leadership. Looking forward to seeing it all again.
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Jun 10 2017 12:09pm
Quote (fender @ Jun 9 2017 05:55pm)
sorry, but this makes absolutely no sense at all. the EU is much bigger, germany alone is a significantly larger economy than the UK. the EU will definitely stay a globally significant economic powerhouse. please elaborate on your point about the EU not "winning this", whatever that means...


The UK is one of the largest net contributors to the EU budget (~ $10 billion net I believe), and with no deal in place, they will have a hard time trying to make up that budget shortfall. I think no deal will economically hurt them in the long run more than it will the UK.

This post was edited by Magicman657 on Jun 10 2017 12:14pm
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Jun 10 2017 12:20pm
Quote (Magicman657 @ 10 Jun 2017 19:09)
The UK is one of the largest net contributors to the EU budget, and with no deal in place, they will have a hard time trying to make up that budget shortfall. I think no deal will economically hurt them in the long run more than it will the UK.


Europe have no choice with UK, "it's them or us". The world must see the consequences.

And now UK cant act like a Tax haven with recent elections: that was the only weapon May had to negociate.

Uk have 45% of its total exports to EU, it will lose the "free access".
Experts that already predicted the -15% on £ are predicting another -15% before the end of the year.

This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Jun 10 2017 12:23pm
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Jun 10 2017 07:30pm
Quote (Scaly @ 10 Jun 2017 15:05)
That's the Tories for you. Ruthlessly cutthroat. Remember after the eu referendum. Everyone stabbed everyone in the back. Was like a Mexican standoff for a bit then they all just blew eachother away and when the smoke cleared all the biggest contenders were down and May was standing there holding the leadership. Looking forward to seeing it all again.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-40236662
Quote
Newspaper headlines: Senior Tories 'urge Boris to topple May'


And so it begins...

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