Quote (thesnipa @ 8 Feb 2018 16:40)
good article from an economic standpoint, bad article from an actual strategic military aspect.
IMO it leans to heavily on a US vs NK match, and extrapolates debt totals and war costs based on a head to head match. That might be fine and dandy for a state like Afghanistan or Iraq but with a confirmed nuclear armed state with a much higher insurgency cost than even Iraq we're not going in without South Korean, Chinese, japanese, and Russian support. We pulled all of Japan's teeth but they can bank quite a bit, same goes for the South Koreans. 3 pronged attack from China, US, Russia is the only real plan of attack, and the rebuilding wouldn't be us bringing them freedom, it would be ceding control of the peninsula to SK. That was the crux in the ME, too radical of a change from the conquerors rather than a slight change from the same gene pool.
I dont think much of Trump as a POTUS, but i dont think in a million years he'd be foolish enough to invade NK solo. Let alone without a 100% chinese blessing and blessing from Japan and SK as they're target for a potential nuke on the way out. When i ask myself what Hitler would have done with a nuclear button in that bunker then apply it to Kim it gets scary. His generals he's surrounded by wouldn't let that happen, imo.
the problem is that both china and the US have strategic interest in keeping the status quo, as do the north koreans. and the south koreans arent that thrilled at the prospect of inheriting a completely broken down poorhouse that would require payments so high that they would pretty much cut their wealth/standard of living in half.
china: wants to extend its influence in the region, wants to reduce american influence. a unified korea under SK control which is still allied with the US would be a nightmare for china. fears massive streams of NK refugees after a war.
united states: wants to rein in chinese influence in the region, wants an excuse to keep its military presence in the region high. a unified korea under SK control which becomes neutral between the US and china would be a nightmare for them.
south korea: fears that its capital seoul, a metro of 22 million, would get hit hard by north korean artillery in a war. has to fear the tail risk of NK nukes hitting them. doesnt want to have to pay for north korea after a potential reunification.
japan: doesnt want to have to fund a war, fears the tail risk of NK nukes hitting them, wants the US to keep a strong presence in the area to rein in china.
so in the end, everyone has plenty of reasons to keep the status quo.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 8 2018 10:36am