i still don't know what to make of this whole brexit thing, is there an objective review of the arguments/facts on both sides somewhere?

no

Much like voting Trump into office we don't really know the ramifications yet. All we know is that it was a bad idea.

In all seriousness though - The arguments for leaving the EU pretty much boiled down to getting rid of all the immigrants and not letting Brussels make our laws. Both of which have been pretty heavily rebutted. Post-EU we may have less EU immigrants but likely not less refugees. Not that refugees have ever really been an issue. 20,000 Syrians over 5 years? Fail to see how that would have any real effect in a country of some 65 million people and we didn't even make that target, taking only 5,000 in the end. Migration from outside the EU ofc remains unaffected, as most Muslim countries are outside the EU and those are the ones the leave campaigners are worried about this will come as a sore disappointment to them.

Post-referendum the Tory PM has decided that a vote for Brexit meant a vote to end freedom of movement and withdraw from the single market. That's the 'Hard Brexit' you've probably heard of. A soft Brexit would mean staying in the EU trade bloc and keeping our (essentially) EU passports meaning we can live and work in any EU country and anyone from another EU country can do the same here. Nobody knows what this will mean for the enormous amount of expats living in Spain.

Probably the most impactful decision fiscally is to leave the single market. Whether this ruins us or not will depend on what kind of trade deal May can negotiate with the EU. It's unlikely to be anything but destructive in the short term. Long term? wait and see. Recently though it has been hinted that we may still see a parliamentary vote to remain in the single market. Whether this is just bluster from pro-remain MPs though is uncertain.

Honestly I could probably type another 3 pages and you wouldn't read it all so if you have any specific questions just ask and I'll answer as objectively as possible.

This post was edited by Scaly on Apr 1 2017 03:30pm

This likely won't tank Britain in any catastrophic way, what's more than likely going to happen is that over the long term the 3-10% reduction in productivity as a result of trade restrictions with the EU will lead to a weaker state overall, while solving none of the problems that got people upset to begin with.

One of the biggest problems is that you will lose a decent chunk of science funding, that overall made up more than your total contributions to the EU. The UK isn't going to step up and replace those funds, and collaborations with other countries will be more limited which will stifle progress and restrict your competition in the sciences.

So overall lots of long-term effects that will take 10+ years to pile up, but will ultimately lead to a less prosperous UK. Then again, long term consequences aren't conservatives forte.

I can't think of a scenario where an EU trade deal would be favourable as an outsider compared to whatever they could've negotiated as part of the EU. How much leverage does the UK have in terms of what it contributed to the EU when it comes time to negotiate trade?

Fuck all really. We're an import nation.

Yep, yep.

t. your sweaty buttcrack

while this is true overall there are some sectors where the uk has a trade surplus, just let us look at three key ones:
arms: this will likely continue to be strong with potentially some impact on joint efforts with france and other eu countries
motor industry: will potentially be effected strongly because many parts are imported from eu countries, also a lot is owned by non-uk parents and as a result some might be transferred to eu countries in the future
financial services: without "eu-passport" some of those will move to eu countries with dublin, paris and frankfurt ready to pounce and the city of london potentially losing tenth of thousands of jobs (worth billions to the uk economy)