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Poll > Which Will Happen First?
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Jan 4 2017 08:35am
Obviously the question is intended to be somewhat witty, but let's have a serious thread about how phony the Brexit polls were and how phony politicians are when they publicly shame Erdogan yet crawl into bed with him at night.

Also, I would like to make the utterly request for Americans to not join this discussion unless they have a basic understanding of politics in the EU. You're free to do some self-assessment and decide for yourself whether you're ready & willing to talk about this.
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Jan 4 2017 09:22am
Not really knowledgeable about Turkey to have an opinion. Leave that up to someone like Caedus to answer.

But the UK leaving the EU at the very least is going to be a long fiasco. The negotiation with EU countries with the departure and then Scotland is more than likely going to vote to leave the UK if it actually goes through since they did not want to leave the EU.

All I really know about Turkey is right wing religious dogma has kind of taken hold in their country, causing some problems.

UK probably leaves first.

This post was edited by sir_lance_bb on Jan 4 2017 09:23am
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Jan 4 2017 10:03am
I honestly don't see the tangible positives of Turkey joining the EU. I think at the root of the problem is Brussels expects that Turkey would give up some of it's power just like the rest of the EU states but they understand that a man like Erdogan is unlikely to do so. Even his recent moves are a clear signal that if Turkey joined don't expect any serious transfers of power from Erdogan to EU.
The EU gains are marginal at best while the Turks have everything to gain from this. Even the manner that Erdogan is approaching this is disgusting. Using threats to flood Europe with migrants as blackmail is reason enough to tell them to fuck off.
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Jan 4 2017 10:10am
I have a feeling the UK won't leave the EU. The process will take so long, the demographics in favor of Brexit will die out faster than the influx of new voters that want to remain part of the EU.
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Jan 4 2017 11:04am
Quote (nobrow @ Jan 4 2017 10:10am)
I have a feeling the UK won't leave the EU. The process will take so long, the demographics in favor of Brexit will die out faster than the influx of new voters that want to remain part of the EU.


The pro brexit politicians basically resigned in shame over what happened. There will be no brexit
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Jan 4 2017 03:34pm
After the Ivan Rogers recent events...

This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Jan 4 2017 03:35pm
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Jan 4 2017 03:56pm
Quote (Thor123422 @ Jan 4 2017 05:04pm)
The pro brexit politicians basically resigned in shame over what happened. There will be no brexit


3 brexit supporting politicians resigning is irrelevant, the other 200 brexiters with less sense than those guys will carry it out.

This post was edited by dirkkuyt on Jan 4 2017 03:56pm
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Jan 4 2017 04:10pm
Quote (dirkkuyt @ Jan 4 2017 03:56pm)
3 brexit supporting politicians resigning is irrelevant, the other 200 brexiters with less sense than those guys will carry it out.


Considering one of them was the prime minister, and the rest of the country had a massive "oh shit" moment right after it passed with a very narrow margin, I highly doubt it.
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Jan 4 2017 04:17pm
Turkey won't join.
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Jan 4 2017 04:24pm
There's no real chance of Turkey joining the EU anytime soon. The need to be accepted by every country already in the EU, and the way things are now that is very far from happening. Not to mention that the country would need to undergo a ton of structural changes they are currently unwilling to face and that the majority of people in the EU don't want them and would probably pressure their governments to not let them in.

Brexit is going to happen one way or another eventually, even if it's in name only.
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