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Aug 24 2016 04:35pm
I got tired of ping-ponging between the different candidate threads to post updates so I decided to make one thread that covers the entire environment since all of these are connected. Here are some maps that lay out the current environment based on how the two parties generally agree on it. I'll post some updates the rest of the way as I have the time, which will involve everything from campaign strategy, fundraising figures, ad buys and reservations, and national/state polls.

Feel free to post similar content and we'll discuss it. This is where the race for the White House currently stands: http://www.270towin.com/maps/OLZmB and control for the Senate: http://www.270towin.com/2016-senate-election/lpe75a
The parties are a lot cagier about the battle for the House but they agree that the Democrats would win/hold about 205 seats right now, short of the 218 needed for a majority

Senate Battlegrounds - Ranked in order of likeliest to flip parties
IL. Sen. Mark Kirk vs. Rep. Tammy Duckworth
WI. Sen. Ron Johnson vs. former Sen. Russ Feingold
IN. Rep. Todd Young vs. former Sen. Evan Bayh
PA. Sen. Pat Toomey vs. State Admin. Katie McGinty
*NH. Sen. Kelly Ayotte vs. Gov. Maggie Hassan
*FL. Sen. Rubio vs. Rep. Patrick Murphy
NV. Former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto vs. Rep. Joe Heck
NC. Sen. Richard Burr vs. State Sen. Deborah Ross
*AZ. Sen. John McCain vs. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick
OH. Sen. Portman vs. former Gov. Ted Strickland
MO. Sen. Roy Blunt vs. Sec. State Jason Kander
IA. Sen. Chuck Grassley vs. former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge
AR. Sen. John Boozman vs. former D.A. Connor Eldridge
CO. Sen. Michael Bennet vs. County Commissioner Darryl Glenn
GA. Sen. Johnny Isakson vs. CIO Jim Barksdale
KY. Sen. Rand Paul vs. Mayor Jim Gray

* = At least 1 of the parties still has to settle a competitive primary. Both Rubio and McCain will have their primaries on Tuesday (8/30), where they're both expected to advance (Rubio is a much bigger favorite in his)
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Aug 24 2016 04:43pm
For the people who can't open images to the White House battlegrounds: http://www.270towin.com/maps/OLZmB

Arizona: Tossup
Colorado Likely Clinton
Florida: Lean Clinton
Georgia: Tossup
Indiana: Likely Trump
Iowa: Lean Clinton
Missouri: Lean Trump
Montana: Likely Trump
Nebraska's 2nd CD: Likely Clinton
New Hampshire: Likely Clinton
Nevada: Lean Clinton
North Carolina: Lean Clinton
Ohio: Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania: Likely Clinton
South Dakota: Lean Trump
Utah: Lean Trump
Virginia: Likely Clinton
Wisconsin: Likely Clinton

Again this is the current environment in these states, not an estimation or projection as to how they'll vote in November. Many of them will see a lot of advertising, voter registration, and visits from the candidates and surrogates over the next 3 months that will change things. This is just a basic agreement between both sides of where things generally stand now.

Edit: And for the Senate races, thanks for the reminder.

IL. Likely Dem
WI. Likely Dem
IN. Lean Dem
PA. Lean Dem
*NH. Lean Dem
*FL. Tossup
NV. Tossup
NC. Tossup
*AZ. Tossup
OH. Lean GOP.
MO. Lean GOP.
IA. Likely GOP.
AR. Likely GOP.
CO. Likely GOP.
GA. Likely GOP.
KY. Likely GOP.

This post was edited by Pollster on Aug 24 2016 04:51pm
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Aug 24 2016 05:08pm
what a snoozefest, whats a nigga gotta do to get a tldr around here
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Aug 24 2016 06:26pm
Quote (dro94 @ Aug 25 2016 12:08am)
what a snoozefest, whats a nigga gotta do to get a tldr around here


Seems pretty concise to me already mate.
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Aug 24 2016 06:32pm
Quote (dro94 @ Aug 24 2016 06:08pm)
what a snoozefest, whats a nigga gotta do to get a tldr around here


Have you tried turning it off then back on?
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Aug 25 2016 01:50am
Seems like there is a very real possibility of a 50/50 Senate. The VP will have a busy 2 years, that's for sure.
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Aug 25 2016 02:02am
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Aug 25 2016 02:48pm
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/08/22/clinton-already-dominant-on-the-airwaves-reserves-nearly-80-million-more-in-tv-time/?postshare=5031471866365502&tid=ss_tw

Clinton's camp reserved $77 mil in TV time for Sept/Oct in 8 states: FL, IA, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, and Nebraska's 2nd district (Omaha). You might notice CO/VA absent; both HfA and Priorities USA paused their ads there months ago, and haven't seen a reason yet to start them back up (PUSA also paused their ads in Pennsylvania). Trump's first ad buy was only for $4.8 mil and was slated to run from 8/19-8/29, in NC/FL/OH/PA.

Pretty soon we'll see what the plans are for the outside groups. PUSA started August with about $39 mil COH and still has roughly twice that amount reserved for TV ads that haven't aired yet. Trump has 4 Super PACs and allies (like the NRA) who will, I'd assume, be making reservations for the fall soon too.

Quote (thundercock @ Aug 25 2016 12:50am)
Seems like there is a very real possibility of a 50/50 Senate. The VP will have a busy 2 years, that's for sure.


It looks like the GOP needs Trump to really rebound before Election Day for things to fall exactly that way. They gave up on IL/WI back in July and once Darryl Glenn won their nomination in CO every major GOP committee declared him on his own. The Dems are flooding the zone in IN, now with four polls showing Bayh leading by 15-20 points in basically a dare to national Republicans of "do you really want to spend a bunch of money here just to lose anyway?"

GOP internals have Trump trailing in PA and NH by double-digits, which turned Toomey and Ayotte's small leads into deficits. To stop the bleeding and end their losses at only 4 seats they'd need Trump to only lose by a couple of points instead of the 6-8 he's down now. Or their problems would go away if he found a way to win, I guess.
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Aug 29 2016 04:21pm
Trump's first ad buy ends today and now it's being reported he's going right back on the air with a $10 mil buy to start soon after. It'll run in OH/PA/NC/FL where his first ad ran, as well as NH/IA/CO/VA/NV. The second ad is typical Republican boilerplate about taxes and spending, the kind of message I expected in the first ad actually considering where it was targeted: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4obk0P2YCFg

HfA for their part has a ton of new ads out that'll be part of Clinton's $77 mil buy. "Everything" will run in FL/OH/PA/NC and is the response to Trump's blunt challenge of "what the hell do you have to lose?" to African-Americans. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4q2oLn8Bmfo

"Shirts" is a combo positive/attack ad that hits Trump for outsourcing the production of all his merchandise to foreign countries; I expect it to replace their Letterman ad in their 8-state/national buy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5s-m4ld7jo

HfA also released a generic positive, issue-based spot. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yyg0QkicW8Y

Priorities USA released "Watching," which is pure "prong 3" in their strategy to highlight Trump's most divisive rhetoric. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5rZVK2caKc
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Aug 31 2016 05:31pm
Quote (Pollster @ Aug 24 2016 03:35pm)

Senate Battlegrounds
FL. Sen. Rubio vs. Rep. Patrick Murphy
AZ. Sen. John McCain vs. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick


No more * on these races, they're set for November. Both "Little Marco" Rubio and John "Not a real war hero" McCain won their primaries, though in McCain's case it was a very pedestrian win for a sitting Senator.

We also know the matchups for 4 of the most critical House races in the country: AZ-1, AZ-2, FL-18, FL-26. There were no huge surprises in the House primaries, both parties generally got who they wanted. If there's a slight edge it might go to the Democrats because the GOP didn't get the candidate they wanted in either FL-18 or AZ-1. National Democrats didn't get their preference in FL-26, but the alternative was the former Congressman who nearly held onto the seat in the low-turnout election of 2014 anyway, so they probably don't figure that as much of a loss.
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