Quote (Beowulf @ Apr 21 2016 01:55pm)
I just think incompetent Trump outperforms incompetent Bernie
granted general election is different but I think Trump has shown more ability to get votes than Bernie
I also see Bernie growing weaker and weaker and Trump not dropping as fast, also once he switches to general mode he may be able to stop the bleeding enough to pull that win out
but you know more about the ins and outs than I do so I'm just going off gut feeling
There's a whole lot to consider. I might run a few simulations and see how things would play out under different scenarios. Neither one of them have shown much ability to get votes (above their floors) and the lack of data and infrastructure are really why. Their opponents invested heavily in it: Clinton's built a juggernaut and Cruz has built one of the best data operations in the history of national Republican politics.
Part of the reason you get the sense that Bernie's getting weaker and weaker vs. Trump not dropping as fast is that Bernie has Clinton's fine-tuned infrastructure just picking him apart week after week after week no matter where they go, how much money he brings in, or what the story of the week is. Trump's weathering this storm because he and Cruz are essentially equals, even-money to win the nomination. With the rules that the Democrats play by, once a candidate opens up a lead like Clinton did, if they continue to win delegates like she did they can pretty much make it impossible for the opponent to catch up.
Quote (majorblood @ Apr 21 2016 01:57pm)
When you spend the least and have an amazing voter turnout you are the unprepared one? Trump knows how to handle money is all that it shows.
I think you're conflating the overall Republican turnout (all votes cast for all Republican candidates) with Trump's individual turnout. His campaign struggles to perform even the most basic operations related to organizing and turning out voters, and they're not great with the budget either. They've been living off of free media.