2,246 delegates will decide the Democratic nominee, and while the GOP is a little behind in finalizing their selection process they're gonna pick their winner the same way. People can use this thread to follow along with the delegate battle. Rather than focusing on all the meaningless fluff like popular vote totals or who's "winning on social media," this will be here for people who want to do a deep dive into the data to find out how these races are really going. When I've got some time later I'll pull together a much better look at the Iowa strategies, but for now just a summary:

Democrats: The strategies here were predictable and effective for both candidates. Clinton wanted to clean up in the western half of the state and she dominated there; she was also able to hold down Sanders' margins in the southeast while keeping things close in the northeast. The lopsided delegate allocation speaks to how much stronger Clinton's infrastructure is than Sanders'; he couldn't even pull off a victory here after his data theft gave him the Clinton road map. That's a bad sign for things to come.

Republicans: It became evident about 5-6 months ago to some that Ted Cruz was opening up a massive edge among infrastructure in the GOP race. He used that organizing power to beat Trump after having a tough final few weeks. Trump's inability to get his supporters to caucus sites was widespread, and it was actually the main reason why Rubio was able to outperform his public polling and take a strong third place. Rubio was able to fill the void in many important counties that went strongly for Romney, and was able to steal some delegates and momentum with a fraction of the infrastructure that Cruz had. The dynamic in Iowa really should keep people from gobbling up the narrative that the party is rallying around Rubio, at least for now. Some (nervous Republican operatives, billionaires, lazy media personalities) have been pitching that narrative for a solid 6 months and after 6 months of rallying, Rubio still looks mighty week on the fundraising and endorsement front.

http://nypost.com/2016/02/02/the-coin-tosses-in-iowa-that-gave-clinton-delegates/

We should just flip for it.

You've got to have tiebreakers. They're just a part of close elections, and I'm a fan. There is something silly about something so consequential coming down to a coin flip but you've got to have something. If it's not this, then it's Republicans in Mississippi losing a special election straw-drawing and then just having their incumbents vote in the Republican who lost anyway, simply because they really want that 2/3 majority god bless them and they just can't win it any other way.

And if the complaining is just the losing side whining because they couldn't win (which was exactly what this was, given that Sanders' idiotic supporters weren't crying about the coin tosses that they themselves won in Iowa), then why should anyone care? You've gotta have a tiebreaker.

You don't have to have coin-flips. The Democrats could just caucus like the Republicans - most votes wins. It's much less complicated and more accurate of who the people support.

Considering how conservative/religious is Iowa, Bernie Sanders should have the majority in others states isnt it ?

...this why you really should avoid all topics about the American election process . Behind all the herping and derping is the glaring evidence that you are totally clueless about the topic .

I'm shocked there wasnt any video or documentation of the coin flip, it should be a requirement. I think next to nobody except the most die hard hacks believes she would win a coin toss 6 of 6 times. Given the ubiquity of cellphones I'm amazed there was no footage of the toss. (if there is I havent heard of it and I'd love to see it)

Has Bernie demanded a recount yet? He should.


Agreed.

This post was edited by Master_Zappy on Feb 3 2016 02:08pm

They showed one of the coin flips on the CBS morning news show .

like it's my fault if iowa is a biggots-hole
enjoy

...it is your fault that you post nonsense on a topic of which you are ignorant .