Alright guys, the Iowa cuckus is nearly here (MONDAY). I'll be taking bets on who you think will win until Monday 1 AM PST (4 AM EST). If you want the general blind odds rules, refer to an earlier thread here: http://forums.d2jsp.org/topic.php?t=73119376&f=119

For the Republicans, it seems that Donald Trump has a sizable lead over Senor Cruz. But is that enough to combat Cruz's excellent ground game? Can Trump get enough people out to vote for him? Could Rubio or Carson get enough votes for an upset?

Aggregate polling data for the GOP can be found here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html
538 forecast is here:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-republican/

For the Democrats, we have a race that's as tight as a virgin. Bernie Sanders and HRC are neck in neck in the polls, yet 538 gives her a sizable lead. Can Bernie get enough young white liberals to caucus for him or will two Iowan black people be enough to scare his supporters away? If Sanders doesn't win Iowa, he's pretty much done for.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/

Ill laugh my effing ass off if Trump wins the final nomination and highschoolturd makes off with all our money.

Gunna have to think it over into tomorrow for Iowa odds.

Rand won't win on primary night, but I bet he gets the most delegates from Iowa to the national convention.

I doubt that very much. He is dumber than his father when it comes to playing the game.

bump

It is illegal to bet on elections in the US - even in Nevada. Obviously this does not apply to FG, but I'm curious, can a US citizen bet on politics or the Iowa Caucus on a site like Bovada, which is based in Canada?

Really interested in how that works. Has any American here bet on US political elections on online sites (like Bovada) in the past? Thanks!

It works by selling "political futures" I believe the limits are 10k per individual.

He has many of the same advisers and ground game coordinators as his father did. Caucusing is ALL about organizing. Here in MN in 2012, his dad won 15.7% of the vote (4th) in what was basically a 4 person race, yet 33 of 40 MN delegates to the national convention were Paul's.

Cruz's ground game is far far better than Paul's though. If anything, Cruz would use the same strategy as Ron. Rand will get zero delegates because he's going to drop out before the convention (guy needs to save his Senate seat!)

The first thing a President Clinton will do is sell out her supporters.