You definitely make some interesting points and that's a real rare thing to see here, but unfortunately I've got to disagree on some of these.
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1. Marijuana legalization.
This just isn't an issue with the requisite pull to be a defining social issue that moves votes. Proponents wisely stuck to a coordinated state effort where they notch victories here and there rather than sinking themselves into a national argument they can't yet win. It doesn't have the gravity to be a wedge issue and Hillary Clinton will have no interest in using this as an issue to set up a contrast. Depending on who the billionaires buy in the GOP primary, if there's a big social issue at all it's still likely to be abortion or marriage thanks to the GOP becoming more extreme on abortion and SCOTUS for teeing up a constitutionally-protected right to marry that the Republican hopeful(s) will push back on viciously.
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2. Latino voters.
This one is a gimme but it goes so much farther than simply immigration reform. The Dems derive just as much electoral benefit from their stances on healthcare and tax policies. The GOP will probably succumb to their tokenism urges and fit Rubio somewhere on the ticket but it's not really going to matter because both the short-term/long-term trends in population growth and demographic change are cutting against them hard in the important swing states.
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3. Women.
This is a gimme too, and not just on policy. Clinton has unique strength among white, working-class women. All else being equal she'd improve the baseline of Obama '12 among non-college educated, non-liberal, non-sourthern whites on top of her unique appeal to every white sub-demographic. The GOP obviously doesn't look very interested in fixing the damage they've caused to themselves in the eyes of women voters, either.
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4. Republicans are still failing to modernize themselves.
5. Moderates.
Totally agree. The right-wing echo chamber will carry the water for the GOP and will attack Clinton at every turn but the playbook of screaming "socialist libruhl!!!1111oneone" will not be as effective against Clinton as it was against Obama or Kerry. If the GOP nominee hails from the Senate then Clinton's DW-Nominate score will easily be closer to both the true center and the composite center of the Senate than her opponent. Agree that moderates are a key voting bloc and that they'll back the Democrats (they always do), but disagree on how many there are and what they're looking for. They'll be drawn to Clinton and they already strongly dislike the direction that the Republican party has been going in.
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I think the only chance the Republican party has to win is Rand Paul or Chris Christie.
You lost me here. Nominating either Paul or Christie would get the GOP shellacked and Clinton would likely win 300-340 EVs in anything other than a decidedly Republican-friendly year, in which case it doesn't much matter who the GOP nominated as long as it isn't a bombthrower. Christie is the most-unpopular candidate considering a bid in the GOP, and Paul comes with too many negatives himself.
This post was edited by Pollster on May 18 2015 04:13pm