d2jsp
Log InRegister
d2jsp Forums > Off-Topic > General Chat > Political & Religious Debate > 2016 Elections > State Of Play Thread
Prev12346Next
Closed New Topic New Poll
Member
Posts: 51,927
Joined: Jan 3 2009
Gold: 8,933.00
Dec 12 2014 09:01am
Quote (Cellmat @ Dec 11 2014 08:49pm)
Are there really requests for this?


Very important people follow his political postings on a video game forum. Just ask him.

Quote (thundercock @ Dec 11 2014 08:55pm)
Guys, quit bothering Jay. He's enjoying retirement at the moment.


That's awfully generous of you.
Member
Posts: 13,274
Joined: Nov 17 2012
Gold: 1.00
Dec 12 2014 09:05am
Quote (Pollster @ 11 Dec 2014 23:51)
Been getting a lot of requests for a new thread


Sure you have.

Member
Posts: 38,317
Joined: Jul 12 2006
Gold: 20.31
Dec 13 2014 06:51pm
Quote (duffman316 @ Dec 11 2014 04:24pm)
isn't this like 2 years too soon


Definitely too soon for the type of updates that people apparently got accustomed to, but if an idle thread gets rid of the repetitive asks in my inbox then apparently now's the time. As stated, I'm mainly doing it just to get some people off my back because this is by far the easiest way to convey the simple truth that there's not much going on that's very "discussable."

Quote (Cellmat @ Dec 11 2014 07:49pm)
Are there really requests for this?


Unfortunately yes, but because I keep my inbox clogged in order to block med. requests I don't exactly keep a count. Nor do I care. They come almost exclusively from the DFers who can't discuss these things there, and I'd never blame them for not wanting to post here. I'm all about keeping the asks down, though.

Beyond that, people should kindly take the herpin' and derpin' out of this thread and deposit it literally in any other thread that they could care to open in this subforum.
Member
Posts: 38,317
Joined: Jul 12 2006
Gold: 20.31
Jan 6 2015 05:33pm
House: The Democrats are on the right side of the retirements/vacancy developments so far, as most thought they would be. New York Republican Chris Gibson is honoring his self-imposed term-limits pledge and announced he's retiring, leaving open his swingy seat in NY-19. Obama carried it narrowly in 2012 but it's ancestrally Republican. This is similar to the situation going on in NY-11, where convicted felon Mike Grimm is resigning. Both parties are closing in on their preferred candidates (chosen by they parties) but the GOP should be able to hold Grimm's seat in a low-turnout April special election.

People expect Pennsylvania Republican Mike Fitzpatrick to also abide by a term-limits pledge and retire this year as well, leaving open his R+1 seat. Expect more of these retirements in the next couple of months, especially from Republicans who hold down seats in districts that Obama won, because many of them aspire to be statewide candidates and none of them want to share a ballot with Hillary Clinton.
Member
Posts: 44,154
Joined: Jun 22 2007
Gold: 3,100.00
Jan 8 2015 09:28am
Quote (Cellmat @ Dec 11 2014 10:49pm)
Are there really requests for this?


I don't mind glancing over these, didn't request anything though.

This post was edited by obisent on Jan 8 2015 09:28am
Member
Posts: 38,317
Joined: Jul 12 2006
Gold: 20.31
Jan 8 2015 11:34am
Senate: "Retirement watch" continues. California Senator Barbara Boxer announced her retirement after four terms in the Senate. This likely will not have any major electoral impact though; the only possible way the Republicans could have a prayer of winning this seat would be the odd scenario of two Republicans advancing to the November general election due to a half-dozen or so (or even more) Democrats all running for the seat and crowding one another out. The Democrats will look to take that unlikely option off the table early by hoping that one of their juggernauts in waiting jump into the race early for the entire state party to coalesce around. Attorney General Kamala Harris is definitely the most sought after choice because she's a rising star who could even potentially rise higher than the Senate. House Reps Raul Ruiz and Xavier Becerra are strong candidates also; if the Democrats got any of the three to throw their hat in the ring they could likely lock up at least one spot in the November election. The GOP will probably just opt for whichever millionaire they can lure into financing their own campaign because there won't be many Republicans who are interested in shelling out major money in 2016 to make a quixotic bid for a Senate seat in California.

Elsewhere in the Senate, North Carolina Republican Richard Burr announced he's fully committed to running for reelection in 2016. He was a frequent name in many people's retirement watch due to raising little money over the past two years but he said that he'd be making a formal announcement in the coming weeks. The Democrats are hoping to lure former Senator Kay Hagan into the race as she would immediately erase Burr's incumbency and financial advantages, but they have a strong bench in the state even if they fail to get Hagan to take the plunge again.
Member
Posts: 38,317
Joined: Jul 12 2006
Gold: 20.31
Jan 8 2015 04:23pm
Meant to add to the bottom of the last post but just forgot: for future reference these are the most common names floating around for possible retirement due to one reason or another: Murkowski (R-AK), Grassley (R-IA), Coats (R-IN), Kirk (R-IL), Boozman (R-AR), Johnson (R-WI), McCain (R-AZ), Isakson (R-GA), Vitter (R-LA), Rubio (R-FL), Paul (R-KY), Mikulski (D-MD), Blumenthal (D-CT), and Reid (D-NV). Some of them have said they're running again but it wouldn't be a surprise to see them change their mind. A few of them, specifically McCain, Isakson, Murkowski, and Johnson, might not even be favorites to be renominated by their own party at this point.

Obviously the retirements aren't created equally. If Mark Kirk retires in Illinois then you could practically just count that seat as a Democratic pickup right now as he's generally thought to be the GOP's only hope of even competing there in 2016. Ron Johnson retiring in Wisconsin might actually give the GOP a better chance of holding his seat than he would. Vitter will retire to run for governor this year and his party will hold his seat easily; the GOP could do the same with Boozman's seat as would the Democrats for Mikulski's and Blumenthal's. McCain, Grassley, Coats, and Murkowski are essentially invincible if they are renominated but any of them being forced into early retirement would give Democrats a legitimate pickup opportunity in any of the three states.
Member
Posts: 38,317
Joined: Jul 12 2006
Gold: 20.31
Jan 10 2015 05:24pm
Quick note: two users asked for a full breakdown of the competitive Senate elections. Look for it mid-week when I'm not so busy.

White House: Romney is meeting with high-profile donors and operatives to talk about his hunger for another campaign [Full story: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/romney-to-gop-donors-i-want-to-be-president/2015/01/09/ce5f821a-9848-11e4-aabd-d0b93ff613d5_story.html]. The big question is whether there's room in this massive field even for a fully-vetted Romney? Some believe that Jeb and Christie would be able to crowd Romney out, but Romney is stronger than either in Iowa and would have no shortage of personnel or money to compete in a long race.

House: Mike Fitzpatrick announced his retirement as expected. This makes the third competitive seat in a row to be vacated by an incumbent Republican. The GOP is hoping that some long-serving Democrats announce their retirements soon to break this little trend that's gotten started. The GOP isn't in any real danger of losing their House majority in 2016 so long as they don't suffer an electoral bloodbath in the presidential election, but they'd rather keep their losses to 5-10 instead of them creeping up to 15-20.

Senate: The GOP might get its wish from West Virginia. Joe Manchin has been flirting with the possibility of running for his old job of Governor for years. He said he'll make a decision by summer. A retirement would set up a 2016 special that would give the GOP their best pickup opportunity on a map that currently only has two of them.
Member
Posts: 38,317
Joined: Jul 12 2006
Gold: 20.31
Jan 12 2015 07:41pm
Pretty busy day when you consider the election is ~22 months away.

President: The big news of the day is that Romney 3.0 is very real. Robert Costa of WaPo broke the news that the Romney is trying to reassemble his national apparatus as quickly as possible. Also to the surprise of no one Paul Ryan officially said he's skipping the big race. This gives Scott Walker a little more time to try to deal with Wisconsin's difficult financial situation before jumping in. Once he's in, and if Romney takes the plunge again, expect the season of the pretenders to end abruptly: the race will be on.

Senate: The Democrats got two pieces of great news today. The first came from Senator Claire McCaskill who announced she's staying put in the Senate (her term us up in 2018) rather than run for Governor, which would have given the GOP a near-certain pickup in a special election. This will also allow the Democrats to focus on Republican Roy Blunt who is up in 2016. They'll hope to nominate either Governor Nixon or rising star S.o.S. Jason Kander. The second bit of news came from California where L.G. Gavin Newsom announced he won't be running to fill Barbara Boxer's seat. This clears the way for A.G. Kamala Harris, who would be the prohibitive favorite even in a crowded field. The party will be pretty thrilled once Harris makes her candidacy official because they get the best of both words: Newsom likely takes over as Governor in 2018 and they get to bring their superstar-in-waiting to D.C. immediately. Harris has drawn considerable speculation for higher office even as California's A.G. so should she join the Senate expect the chatter to reach Cory Booker/Julian Castro levels.

House: The Republicans got their man for the special election in NY-11 to replace convicted felon Mike Grimm. Staten Island D.A. Dan Donovan received the critical endorsement from the SIGOP which will pretty much lock him in as the party's official nominee. He'll start out as a modest favorite, even with the controversy of the Eric Garner case hanging over his head. The Democrats would probably need to recruit former Rep. Mike McMahon, who held this seat previously, to compete seriously here in a low-turnout April special.

This post was edited by Pollster on Jan 12 2015 07:45pm
Member
Posts: 57,901
Joined: Dec 3 2008
Gold: 285.00
Jan 17 2015 11:57am
http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/16/politics/romney-rnc-speech/index.html

Romney giving 'serious consideration to the future'

Quote
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney acknowledged Friday that he is once again considering running for the Republican presidential nomination, declaring that the country is in worse shape on both the domestic and foreign fronts since President Barack Obama took office.

"I'm giving some serious consideration to the future," Romney said in remarks to members of the Republican National Committee. "But this I know, we can win in 2016 as a party in the House, in the Senate, and in the White House if we communicate a clear vision of where we are taking this country."

Romney did not discuss specific details about his time frame or steps he would take in considering another run, but the 2012 GOP presidential nominee did note that his wife, Ann, was supportive of another presidential bid.

"Now, I should tell you the last few days the most frequently asked question I get is 'what does Ann think about all this,'" he said. "She believes that people get better with experience. Heaven knows I have experience running for president."

RNC cuts primary debates down to 9; CNN to host up to 3

News of Romney's sudden interest in running for president again, became the topic of discussion at the RNC Winter Meeting this week, overshadowing other major news including the announcement of dates for the 2016 Republican National Convention and the unveiling of a presidential primary debate schedule.

"I think that he has been the dominant talk here," said Saul Anuzis, a former chairman and national committeeman from Michigan. "Most people were surprised. He is very well respected and liked here, but he has got to make a case for running a third time. And especially when we have such a strong field. When you take look at this ... I don't think ever in history we have had such a strong field of candidates."

A "strong field" is one of the major obstacles facing Romney if he chooses to run again as well as calls for a fresh face for the GOP to put forward as the party nominee. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who is seriously considering running for president himself, emphasized that point several times Thursday night during his speech at the RNC.

Maryland GOP Chair Diana Waterman said that people were "intrigued" by Romney's decision to consider another run, but noted Republican voters will be sizing up the full field of candidates before making a decision.

"The bottom line is we want to choose a candidate that we're going to take all the way to the White House," she said. "I am not sure who that is going to be yet."

Even in New Hampshire, arguably Romney's strongest state of support outside of Utah, he would have to campaign hard to convince voters to give him another chance, said Jennifer Horn, chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party.

"Obviously, Mitt comes into New Hampshire with a certain advantage, but all of the candidates have advantages and challenges they have to overcome," she said. "Gov. Romney has a strong base of loyal supporters in our state, but at the same time, he is going to have to set up an operation and win the votes one at a time just like everyone else. It is not a gimme for anybody."

In his speech Friday, Romney highlighted "three principles" that he thinks the GOP should emphasize heading into the next election: Making the world safer, increasing opportunity and lifting people out of poverty.

It was in his pitch on national security that Romney not only hit the current president. He aimed his attack at a possible future opponent in 2016: former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

"The results of the Hillary Clinton-Barack Obama foreign policy have been devastating and you know that," Romney said at the San Diego gathering, citing terrorism in France, Nigeria and Yemen as examples of how policies from Obama and Clinton haven't worked to make America safer.

It's been a busy week for the former 2012 Republican nominee, who is suddenly leaning in for a 2016 presidential run. Romney spent the past week phoning donors, former staffers and political backers, letting them know he was seriously thinking about entering the 2016 fray of Republican hopefuls.

The gathering in Southern California has been a steady spotlight for prospective 2016 GOP presidential candidates such as as Walker, Dr. Ben Carson and Texas Gov. Rick Perry. Each delivered speeches to the state party leaders and activists.


Mitt "can't stop, won't stop" Romney talking about giving it another shot.

Frankly it wasn't him that failed the last election, but the Republican party as a whole for being so schizophrenic.

I honestly think Romney is presidential as hell and I have personally been following his political career since 2000 when he toyed with the idea of running in the primary, knowing him as a competent manager and visionary.

I wish his economic credentials were better though. His built his fortune through destroying the dreams of other entrepreneurs and sending American jobs away, even when unnecessary but "more profitable" which speaks tremendously about his character (no sense of greater good are words I might use).

All in all an interesting guy who is definitely qualified...but he doesn't fall into all the arbitrary (very arbitrary) categories that many Republicans care about.
Go Back To Political & Religious Debate Topic List
Prev12346Next
Closed New Topic New Poll