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Oct 20 2014 09:09pm
Quote (duffman316 @ Oct 20 2014 01:59pm)
the impact of the hispanic vote seems to get larger every year and it always leans left :o

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/10/17/how-to-understand-the-latino-vote-in-5-charts/


This is going to be one of the bigger problems facing the GOP in the 2016 presidential race. The party didn't put much thought into the possibility that Hispanic/Latino turnout in 2012 would be as strong as it was, and that it would break for Obama the way it did, and after they were trounced on Election Day some in the party (I genuinely believe, at least) recognized that they needed to address this demographic before 2016 or they could almost expect to lose the election by default. Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and North Carolina have all swung towards the Democrats to varying degrees thanks to higher support from Hispanics/Latinos, and if the GOP can't turn that swing back it becomes almost impossible to cobble together 270 Electoral Votes. Those 5 states comprise 48 EVs, most of them critical to determining a winner, and Florida is not far behind in the same shift.

One of the other big problems facing the GOP in 2016, simple population growth, adds to the potency of this demographic change. Florida is the best example of this: the parts of the state that support Democrats (and heavily) are growing and growing quickly, while the parts of the state that support Republicans are either barely growing or are even shrinking. Like you said, this is a problem that grows considerably each year that it goes unresolved.

Edit: This article [See: http://www.newrepublic.com/article/113833/gop-latino-problem-republicans-need-florida-hispanics] is a must-read on how Florida is changing and what that means for presidential politics going forward.

This post was edited by Pollster on Oct 20 2014 09:25pm
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