ESPN.com: NFL Draft 2013 [Print without images]
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Updated: April 25, 12:28 PM ET
2013 NFL Mock Draft 5.0
By Mel Kiper
ESPN Insider
UPDATE: This has been changed as of 12:30 on Thursday afternoon.
This has not been a comfortable year to do mock drafts. Put it this way: When you talk to teams and know they're still dealing with a lot of internal debate about the best picks -- the day before the draft -- you're not exactly planning on going 32 for 32. What I do think is we'll see most picks match up with where I have players ranked in terms of value, at least early on. But, as my friend Adam Schefter mentioned today, once that first trade happens, all bets are off. And most of us feel a trade will happen early.
Because there's still a lot of fluidity with some of these picks, I do mention a number of scenarios in play. Also, for this final mock I'm getting less into player profiles, as most fans are developing a decent sense of who the players are. For this, it's more about scenarios and fits. As always, make sure you also check the Big Board and positional rankings to get a better idea of the overall grades and depth at each position.
MORE KIPER CONTENT:
Latest mock draft | Big Board | Top 5 at each position
1Eric FisherKansas City Chiefs (2-14)
COLLEGE: Central MichiganAGE: 22HT: 6-7WT: 306POS: OT
Analysis: We still think a deal that will send Branden Albert to Miami could get done. But even without that deal I don't think the Chiefs will pass on the highest-rated tackle on their board. The Chiefs believe Fisher can start in Week 1, and they want a player that should help ease the transition of Alex Smith into this offense. Andy Reid's tenure in Philly was ruined last year in part by an offensive line that fell apart. Fisher will anchor his next one.
PLAYER CARD
2Luke Joeckel *Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)
COLLEGE: Texas A&MAGE: 21HT: 6-6WT: 306POS: OT
Analysis: Jacksonville has a need at one tackle spot now, and will almost certainly need one next year. They've had shaky picks in years past based on value, but I think they take the best player available here under a new regime. In this case, that's Joeckel.
PLAYER CARD
3Sharrif Floyd *Oakland Raiders (4-12)
COLLEGE: FloridaAGE: 20HT: 6-3WT: 297POS: DT
Analysis: Fair warning at this slot -- the Raiders could certainly trade down. It makes a ton of sense if they do. They don't have a second-round pick, and any team who wants that third tackle knows this is the spot to get to. That said, if the Raiders stay here, Floyd makes a lot of sense because of his versatility, potential and high ceiling. Given that it's not exactly set which base defense the Raiders will operate out of in 2013, adding versatile defensive line talent also adds scheme flexibility. This is a max-effort player who can power through defenders and has enough quickness to target gaps, disrupting both the pass and the run.
PLAYER CARD
4Lane JohnsonPhiladelphia Eagles (4-12)
COLLEGE: OklahomaAGE: 22HT: 6-6WT: 303POS: OT
Analysis: For Chip Kelly to really thrive, it's not just about the quarterback or the running backs. In fact, I think it starts with very good, athletic offensive lineman that can work and block in space. You won't find a better fit than Johnson, who is extremely athletic, can get out wide or down the field, has a nasty streak in the run game and can develop into a premier pass protector because of his physical gifts. He could be gone if the Raiders move at No. 3, but I like the fit here more and more.
PLAYER CARD
5Ezekiel AnsahDetroit Lions (4-12)
COLLEGE: BYUAGE: 23HT: 6-5WT: 271POS: DE
Analysis: The Lions have obvious needs in the secondary, but they're really going to struggle defending the pass if they can't find a player who can provide pressure off the edge. The more I look at their options, the more Ansah makes sense to me. A 4-3 defensive end who can help early on might not be available later, but depth at cornerback and safety will be. Tackle is an option if Johnson or Fisher is around, but I don't believe either will be.
PLAYER CARD
6Dee MillinerCleveland Browns (5-11)
COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 21HT: 6-0WT: 201POS: CB
Analysis: The Browns are really desperate for another corner to play opposite Joe Haden. If they get Milliner, that's a solid No. 2 option, also allowing them to move Buster Skrine inside to cover the slot, a position where he's far better. The need for a pass-rusher could certainly have them engaging in some debate here, but Milliner provides assurances. There's been talk that the Browns could move in either direction on the board, so plenty to wait for on that front as well. And yes, I do believe a QB such as Geno Smith could be in play here.
PLAYER CARD
7Dion JordanArizona Cardinals (5-11)
COLLEGE: OregonAGE: 23HT: 6-6WT: 248POS: OLB
Analysis: I know they really like Jonathan Cooper as well, but this is one of those points where I believe the value of Jordan as a potentially dynamic pass-rusher in this scheme could outweigh the temptation of a player you know will be really good, but at a position you typically fill later in the draft. So I'll project a lean towards Jordan here, but won't be surprised if the Cardinals opt for an offensive lineman. They certainly need one.
PLAYER CARD
8Jonathan CooperBuffalo Bills (6-10)
COLLEGE: North CarolinaAGE: 23HT: 6-2WT: 311POS: G
Analysis: The Bills are really close to having an offensive line they think is good at every position, but the departure of Andy Levitre means that can't happen unless they plug the hole at left guard. In Cooper you get the best guard I've graded in years, a player who can play a Pro Bowl level as a rookie. I know the Ryan Nassib talk persists, but it's simply too early to make that move.
PLAYER CARD
9Barkevious Mingo *New York Jets (6-10)
COLLEGE: LSUAGE: 22HT: 6-4WT: 242POS: OLB
Analysis: I love the fit, and I think it makes even more sense when you consider the Jets have added another pick and could target offense at No. 13. But Rex Ryan needs -- probably deserves -- to finally have an athletic difference-maker on the edge. I've said before the interior of the defensive line should be a strength with Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples, but the Jets need edge speed. Mingo is a freak athlete and could become a star under Ryan's tutelage. Rex too often is forced to utilize what is sometimes creative brilliance with his schemes to create pressure. Mingo can get that done and help a secondary that just lost a huge piece.
PLAYER CARD
10Sheldon Richardson *Tennessee Titans (6-10)
COLLEGE: MissouriAGE: 24HT: 6-2WT: 294POS: DT
Analysis: The Titans are looking for help on the defensive line, and Richardson is a disruptive force that you don't have to take off the field. I know the option of Star Lotulelei is here, but as a scheme fit, Richardson makes a little more sense. Chance Warmack is also a possibility here, but the addition of Levitre makes them a little less needy at guard.
PLAYER CARD
11D.J. FlukerSan Diego Chargers (7-9)
COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 21HT: 6-5WT: 339POS: OT
Analysis: Now, I really think San Diego would like to move up and put itself in position to take Lane Johnson. The problem is they might have to make a deal with the Raiders to get that done, and the Raiders are going to ask for everything but the baby blue jerseys to do that. Fluker at least fills a need, is an underrated pass-blocker and simply mauls in the run game. But again, I'm not convinced San Diego will stay at this spot if the three left tackles are gone.
PLAYER CARD
12Chance WarmackMiami Dolphins (7-9)
COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 21HT: 6-2WT: 314POS: G
Analysis: Miami is going to land Albert based on what we know at this point, and from there I think they take the certainty of Warmack, solidifying their offensive line. I know cornerback is a need, but the value jump is significant enough that I'm not sure they take one unless they move down off this spot. Warmack is a Week 1 starter and will provide major dividends as a run-blocker, giving the Dolphins a chance to take some pressure off Ryan Tannehill.
PLAYER CARD
13Tavon AustinNew York Jets (6-10) (from TB)
COLLEGE: West VirginiaAGE: 21HT: 5-8WT: 174POS: WR
Analysis: The Jets are dying for what I call a "fear factor" element for their offense. The points they might lose on defense due to the departure of Darrelle Revis could be handed to the offense with the arrival of Austin. This is a player that can work all over the field, is almost impossible to keep covered and will even take handoffs. Think of Randall Cobb coming into the league, but with more polish as a receiver. They need this kind of player.
PLAYER CARD
14Star LotuleleiCarolina Panthers (7-9)
COLLEGE: UtahAGE: 23HT: 6-2WT: 311POS: DT
Analysis: The Panthers were simply bad as a run defense in 2012, and that's even after they drafted Luke Kuechly to hold down the middle. Well, your run defense isn't going to get better just because you get consistent tackling at linebacker. Lotulelei can occupy blocks given his initial burst and his ability to read, identify and make tackles against the run himself. The Panthers need to come out of this draft with some help for the interior of their D-line.
PLAYER CARD
15Jarvis Jones *New Orleans Saints (7-9)
COLLEGE: GeorgiaAGE: 23HT: 6-2WT: 245POS: OLB
Analysis: The Saints are shifting to a 3-4, but are going to lack the ability to consistently apply pressure from the outside linebacker position unless they find one in the draft. In steps Jones, who applied pressure more consistently than any player in the country last year, and against great competition. Jones is relentless in his pursuit, doesn't quit on plays and shows good leverage against the run. Hard to do a lot better at this spot on the board.
PLAYER CARD
16Kenny VaccaroSt. Louis Rams (7-8-1)
COLLEGE: TexasAGE: 22HT: 6-0WT: 214POS: S
Analysis: Not much of a surprise here. The Rams have a huge need at safety, and in Vaccaro they get the best and most versatile safety in the draft. He can cover, step up and make tackles, and work both center field and down in the slot. If he's here, maybe they'd consider Austin and hope to hit safety later. But if the board breaks this way, Vaccaro makes sense.
PLAYER CARD
17Tyler Eifert *Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
COLLEGE: Notre DameAGE: 22HT: 6-6WT: 250POS: TE
Analysis: The Steelers are also going to be surveying options on defense, but I think the possibility to add Eifert at this spot on the board is too tantalizing. They get a whole new dimension to the offense, creating a different kind of matchup problem than the one they lost in Mike Wallace. Eifert can be split out, line up as a classic inline tight end and is potentially devastating in the red zone, where he can go up for the ball and already holds a height edge on almost any defender.
PLAYER CARD
18Sylvester WilliamsDallas Cowboys (8-8)
COLLEGE: North CarolinaAGE: 24HT: 6-3WT: 313POS: DT
Analysis: The Cowboys currently have 31-year-old Jay Ratliff as one starting defensive tackle, and 30-year-old Jason Hatcher as the other. They may have other more pressing needs, but if the Cowboys can't put together a solid rotation on the interior of their defensive line, the conversion to a 4-3 is going to be ugly. Williams, an active, powerful, interior presence can occupy blocks and would give Dallas a much-needed jolt of youth up front.
PLAYER CARD
19D.J. HaydenNew York Giants (9-7)
COLLEGE: HoustonAGE: 22HT: 5-11WT: 192POS: CB
Analysis: If I'm the GM I might be tempted to take a linebacker here, but the Giants have smart decision-makers and the franchise hasn't taken a LB in Round 1 since 1984. That's a lot of history to ignore. The Giants certainly can't assume Terrell Thomas is going to be an effective starter in 2013, and even if they could, depth at cornerback would still be a priority. Hayden is a physical kid who I think can play press or off. He is a tough corner.
PLAYER CARD
20Manti Te'oChicago Bears (10-6)
COLLEGE: Notre DameAGE: 22HT: 6-1WT: 241POS: LB
Analysis: The Bears found one pretty good piece in free agency at linebacker in D.J. Williams, but James Anderson doesn't provide great assurances at the other spot, and Lance Briggs is in the same position now as Brian Urlacher was a couple of years ago. He can still play but both he and the Bears know the clock is ticking. I think Te'o is a natural fit as a possible starter now, and a long-time solution in the middle for years to come. The Bears have been built around stability at that position for a long time, and Te'o can keep it going.
PLAYER CARD
21Eddie Lacy *Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 22HT: 5-11WT: 231POS: RB
Analysis: The Bengals have been dying for some explosiveness from the run game for way too long. They also have two second-round picks, not a lot of major needs, and should have an offensive line that's built to provide some gaps for a runner capable of creating major yards on his own if he gets a few seams. I might be higher on Lacy than some, but I'm betting a RB-needy team takes him in Round 1.
PLAYER CARD
22Cordarrelle Patterson *St. Louis Rams (from WAS) (7-8-1)
COLLEGE: TennesseeAGE: 21HT: 6-2WT: 216POS: WR
Analysis: The misconception around Patterson is that he's only going to be effective once he masters the craft of route-running. Well, I don't think that's true because he's dangerous any time you get the ball in his hands, and a lot of that can be done with simple routes near the line of scrimmage, as well as targets where he hasn't even taken a step down the field. You can move him around, knowing he's big enough to go over the middle on short routes and take hits, and also fast enough to elude many of them. He can beat you deep, but doesn't have to go deep to create big plays. St. Louis could really use him given what they have.
PLAYER CARD
23Robert Woods *Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
COLLEGE: USCAGE: 20HT: 6-1WT: 201POS: WR
Analysis: The Vikings need to provide Christian Ponder with a target that can contribute early, but that's not easy to find at wide receiver. Any coach will tell you the nuances of route-running and simply identifying what defenses are trying to do to you is a big hurdle for rookie receivers. That won't be the case for Woods. He comes out of a system that uses a lot NFL concepts, and he has the smarts, speed and hands to become a reliable WR early in his career. Good fit.
PLAYER CARD
24Xavier RhodesIndianapolis Colts (11-5)
COLLEGE: Florida St.AGE: 22HT: 6-1WT: 210POS: CB
Analysis: The Colts could look at a number of positions here, but Rhodes makes a lot of sense based on what his strengths are. If Vontae Davis and Greg Toler are on X and Y receivers, Rhodes is the physical corner who can handle the slot and be an effective support option against the run. Cornerback is still a need, and the Colts did some work up front in free agency.
PLAYER CARD
25Alec Ogletree *Minnesota Vikings (10-6) (from Seattle)
COLLEGE: GeorgiaAGE: 21HT: 6-2WT: 242POS: LB
Analysis: There's not a lot of mystery to this pick. The Vikings need a player who can step in as the new middle linebacker in Week 1, and they get a good value on the board in Ogletree. At his best, Ogletree is instinctive and explosive, the kind of player that can shoot gaps and beat blocks to the ball. He has dealt with off-field issues, but those only allow a player of his talent level to be around this late.
PLAYER CARD
26Datone JonesGreen Bay Packers (11-5)
COLLEGE: UCLAAGE: 22HT: 6-4WT: 284POS: DE
Analysis: He might be Jon Gruden's favorite player in the draft, but that's just a sidenote here. Jones is a force on the defensive line, and gives Green Bay a great fit in their scheme. Jones is capable of playing as a 5-technique in Green Bay's 3-4 and penetrating. He has a great burst, and if he doesn't split a gap with speed, he can shed with strong hands and power. The Packers went heavy on defense last year, but they still have strides to make.
PLAYER CARD
27DeAndre Hopkins *Houston Texans (12-4)
COLLEGE: ClemsonAGE: 20HT: 6-1WT: 200POS: WR
Analysis: The Texans are throwing pennies into the fountain with Andre Johnson, knowing he's a huge part of their offense, and simply wishing he can stay healthy as he approaches his mid-30s. They have a need at right tackle, but I know they like Hopkins and his ability to give them a second weapon behind Johnson, and potentially a primary pass-catching target down the road when Johnson slows down. Hopkins has great hands, but also an underrated ability to set up defenders and beat them to space, something a play-action offense needs.
PLAYER CARD
28Tank CarradineDenver Broncos (13-3)
COLLEGE: Florida St.AGE: 22HT: 6-4WT: 276POS: DE
Analysis: The Broncos drafted Derek Wolfe in the second round last year and moved him outside. Wolfe is productive in part because he's so relentless as a pass-rusher, but the Broncos could use another player who could give them a pass rush from the edge, particularly since they should be playing from ahead. Carradine is way ahead of his schedule in his rehab from an ACL injury in the fall. He was a top-15 player on my board before he went down, and he might end up a steal based on what I know of his recovery. He can help in 2013.
PLAYER CARD
29Desmond TrufantNew England Patriots (12-4)
COLLEGE: WashingtonAGE: 22HT: 6-0WT: 190POS: CB
Analysis: For starters, they could always trade down. But having noted that perpetual disclaimer, they could also sprint to the podium if Trufant is here. This is a player that is highly versatile, something Bill Belichick loves. He can play man, he can play off, he can play on the perimeter, he can work in the slot. I don't think he has the ceiling of a Hayden, but he helps a good team immediately, and that's how New England drafts.
PLAYER CARD
30Robert AlfordAtlanta Falcons (13-3)
COLLEGE: S.E. LouisianaAGE: 24HT: 6-0WT: 185POS: CB
Analysis: The Falcons have a pretty significant need for another good cover corner, and Alford can flip his hips and turn and run with anybody. He played lesser competition, but during the evaluation process he matched up with some of the nation's best wide receivers and looked like one of the best cornerbacks in the draft. I could see the Falcons taking Carradine here if Denver passes on him, but if there isn't another defensive end that makes sense, Alford can step in and help right away.
PLAYER CARD
31Matt Elam *San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
COLLEGE: FloridaAGE: 21HT: 5-10WT: 206POS: S
Analysis: The 49ers have few needs, but they could draft a starter at safety. Given his versatility and the level of competition he faced in college, Elam is that guy. He can make strides in coverage, but he doesn't lack for speed, and was often asked to play close to the line of scrimmage. A creative coordinator will take advantage of Elam's almost uncanny blitzing skills. He can help early. I can also see Zach Ertz here, though the draft is deep at tight end.
PLAYER CARD
32Kevin MinterBaltimore Ravens (10-6)
COLLEGE: LSUAGE: 22HT: 6-0WT: 246POS: LB
Analysis: While the Ravens know as well as anybody that you can find value at inside linebacker later in the draft, they have the opportunity to take a player they can just plug in as a starter at what is essentially middle linebacker in their hybrid scheme. Elam, if he gets here, would make sense, but the Ravens could be another team looking to take advantage of a deep safety class.
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ESPN.com: NFL Draft 2013 [Print without images]
Thursday, April 25, 2013
2013 NFL Mock Draft 6.0
By Todd McShay
ESPN Insider
After a long grind that began with preseason film study, progressed through the college season and all-star games, then peaked with the NFL combine and pro day workouts, draft day is finally here.
Plenty of intel has been gathered and the buzz in scouting circles analyzed, so without further ado, here is my final first-round projection for the 2013 draft.
As always, non-seniors are noted with an asterisk.
MORE McSHAY MOCKS:
5.1 | 5.0 |4.1 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan | Draft highlight reel
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Dion Jordan, DE/OLB, Oregon | Draft highlight reel
3. Oakland Raiders
Sharrif Floyd*, DT, Florida | Draft highlight reel
4. Philadelphia Eagles
Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma | Draft highlight reel
5. Detroit Lions
Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU | Draft highlight reel
6. Cleveland Browns
Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia | Draft highlight reel
7. Arizona Cardinals
Jonathan Cooper, G, North Carolina | Draft highlight reel
8. Buffalo Bills
Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse | Gruden's QB Camp
9. New York Jets
Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame | Watch
10. Tennessee Titans
Dee Milliner*, CB, Alabama | Draft highlight reel
11. San Diego Chargers
Luke Joeckel*, OT, Texas A&M | Draft highlight reel
12. Miami Dolphins
D.J. Fluker*, OT, Alabama | Draft highlight reel
13. New York Jets (from Buccaneers)
Chance Warmack, G, Alabama | Draft minute
14. Carolina Panthers
Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah | Draft highlight reel
15. New Orleans Saints
Barkevious Mingo*, DE/OLB, LSU | Draft highlight reel
16. St. Louis Rams
Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia | Draft highlight reel
17. Pittsburgh Steelers
Jarvis Jones*, OLB, Georgia | Draft highlight reel
18. Dallas Cowboys
Sheldon Richardson*, DT, Missouri | Draft highlight reel
19. New York Giants
Bjoern Werner*, DE, Florida St. | Draft highlight reel
20. Chicago Bears
Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame | Gruden QB Camp
21. Cincinnati Bengals
Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama | E:60 -- Home and Away
22. St. Louis (from Washington)
Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas | Draft highlight reel
23. Minnesota Vikings
Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina | Draft highlight reel
24. Indianapolis Colts
D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston
25. Minnesota Vikings (from Seattle)
Alec Ogletree*, ILB, Georgia | Draft highlight reel
26. Green Bay Packers
Justin Pugh*, OT/G, Syracuse
27. Houston Texans
Justin Hunter *, WR, Tennessee | Draft highlight reel
28. Denver Broncos
Datone Jones, DE, UCLA | Watch
29. New England Patriots
Xavier Rhodes*, CB, Florida St. | Draft highlight reel
30. Atlanta Falcons
Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington | Draft highlight reel
31. San Francisco 49ers
Eric Reid, S, LSU
32. Baltimore Ravens
Matt Elam*, S, Florida | Draft highlight reel
This post was edited by jesussaves on Apr 25 2013 11:47am