Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Back in 2010, the Buccaneers decided to invest heavily in the middle of their defensive line. They used a first-round draft pick on Gerald McCoy and a second-round choice on Brian Price. The thinking was the duo would make Tampa Bay solid in the middle for years to come. But things haven’t worked out exactly as planned.

McCoy and Price each have shown a few flashes, but injuries have prevented them from being anything close to dominant. A new coaching staff is taking over and there still is hope that McCoy and Price can prosper. But this coaching staff isn’t as deeply wed to players it didn’t play a role in drafting. The pressure is especially on McCoy, who was drafted with the No. 3 overall choice and forever will be compared to Detroit’s Ndamukong Suh, who was selected just before him. To date, McCoy has four career sacks and has missed 13 games with injuries.

The Bucs are hoping this is the year McCoy and Price finally stay healthy, but new coach Greg Schiano has brought in alternatives in case the injury problems continue. The Bucs have added free-agent defensive tackles Amobi Okoye, a former first-round pick by Houston, and Gary Gibson, who played for Schiano at Rutgers and has bounced around the league. McCoy and Price will get every benefit of the doubt, but they have to be able to stay on the field to make an impact.



New Orleans Saints

Long before the news of the bounty scandal broke, it was clear the Saints needed to do something dramatic on defense. Gregg Williams’ system worked nicely in the 2009 season as the Saints went on to win the Super Bowl. But defensive breakdowns were the main reason the Saints lost a playoff game to Seattle in the 2010 season and to San Francisco last season.

That’s why the Saints quickly replaced Williams with Steve Spagnuolo as soon as the season ended. His chore is to build a more consistent defense and get away from Williams’ philosophy of taking big gambles in hopes of producing turnovers. Spagnuolo’s had success before by getting pressure almost exclusively from his front four and letting the back seven focus on pass coverage and run support. But middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma has been suspended for the season and defensive end Will Smith will be suspended for the first four games.

The Saints added Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne and they should make up for the loss of Vilma. But while Smith is out and even after he returns, Spagnuolo has to find ways to get a strong pass rush from a group of guys (aside from Smith) who don’t have a strong history of putting pressure on the quarterback. Spagnuolo’s defense doesn’t have to be dominant.

If the Saints can just come up with some stops at key times, Drew Brees and the offense are good enough to outscore anyone.



Carolina Panthers

There probably isn’t a defensive coordinator in the league who has faced more criticism than Sean McDermott the past two seasons. He was fired by Philadelphia after the 2010 season, and his defense was dismal in his first season in Carolina.

McDermott got a bit of a pass because Carolina had a bunch of injuries on defense, it was the first year for a new coaching staff and rookie quarterback Cam Newton and a suddenly explosive offense gave fans a nice distraction. But, no matter how many points Newton and the offense scored, the Carolina defense had enormous trouble protecting leads in a 6-10 season. The excuses won’t fly this time around.

Linebackers Jon Beason and Thomas Davis and defensive tackle Ron Edwards are returning from injuries and the Panthers added linebacker Luke Kuechly in the first round of this year’s draft. McDermott has the personnel necessary to put together a respectable defense. The injured players and Kuechly join a nucleus that includes defensive end Charles Johnson and cornerback Chris Gamble, and the pressure is squarely on McDermott to put a good defense on the field.

If he can do that, Carolina could be a legitimate playoff contender. If not, McDermott could be on the hot seat.


Atlanta Falcons

From ownership through the front office and coaching staff and into every corner of the locker room, the Falcons firmly believe Matt Ryan has everything it takes to be an elite quarterback. He’s a natural leader, works as hard as anyone and has won a lot of games during his first four seasons.

The problem is that every one of those wins has come in the regular season. The lack of a single postseason victory has a lot of people on the outside doubting whether Ryan really is the long-term answer for Atlanta. If Ryan goes a fifth season without a playoff victory, some of that doubt may creep into the Falcons' own building.

There have been excuses -- most of them valid -- for Ryan's inability to win in the postseason. But those excuses are disappearing. The Falcons brought in Julio Jones last year to be a deep threat, and they’re overhauling their offensive line to give Ryan more time to find receivers down the field. They also have brought in new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, who supposedly is installing a system that’s tailored to get the most out of Ryan’s ability.

The Falcons are going out of their way to give Ryan everything he needs to succeed. Now, with his current contract set to expire in 2013, it’s up to Ryan to take the next step. If he can win a playoff game, a contract extension is sure to follow and the doubts will disappear.



Tennessee Titans


Running back Chris Johnson could get away with one off season. He was a tentative runner in 2011 no matter what he or the team says about it. He got sick of early contact. He gave up too often. He went down too easily.

The Titans have made some changes that should help.

Whether Eugene Amano remains at center or is replaced, the pivot man will be next to veteran guard Steve Hutchinson. The team expects him to have a big, positive influence on the guy next to him. Fullback Ahmard Hall won’t be re-signed, so the Titans will go with Quinn Johnson or undrafted rookie Collin Mooney as the lead blocker if the Titans stick with a fullback. First-round draft pick Kendall Wright bolsters the receiving corps and should be able to threaten deep, as will a healthy Kenny Britt. An increasingly threatening passing game should help the Titans back defenses off. Take a defender out of the box, and Johnson should be more effective.

He’s also spending extensive offseason time with the team for the first time, and coaches are convinced picking apart last season and making corrections together through the spring and summer will make a difference.

Another piece of Johnson’s contract becomes guaranteed after this season. If he comes up with another dud, the team will have cause to bail.



Jacksonville Jaguars

Blaine Gabbert can deliver some big-time passes.

In a rookie season when he was on the field sooner than the Jaguars initially intended, the offensive framework a young quarterback needed was not in place. Injuries on the offensive line meant less-than-stellar pass protection. The receivers were a motley crew. Mike Thomas’ play dropped off after he got a new contract. Tight end Marcedes Lewis' play dropped off after he got a fat new contract.

Gabbert played poorly, drawing criticism for being panicky and, worse, scared. It’s too early to brand him. But the Jaguars' efforts now center on maximizing his chances to succeed.

He needs to pull his game up to at least average to justify the faith of Jaguars management and coaches. The Jaguars added Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson to the receiving corps. They’ll get Eben Britton back on the offensive line. A healed-up defense will do a better job at getting Gabbert and the offense the ball back and in better field position.

Coach Mike Mularkey, offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski and quarterback coach Greg Olson are spending the offseason working with Gabbert. Come the season, they will craft game plans that give him the best chance at success.

The issues that contributed to holding him back have all been addressed. It’s time for us to see some of those big-time passes.



Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are changing in a big way on defense -- they aim to be bigger, more physical and better against the run. Although they talk of being a hybrid, they want to be a base 3-4 front.

To me, the pressure point will be split between two guys: Coach Chuck Pagano, the architect of the scheme, who will have to answer for its progress. His coordinator, Greg Manusky, will help spread the message, install the system and draw up game plans. The coach and his coordinator share the pressure for a unit that is converting high-quality 4-3 ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis into outside linebackers.

The two are excellent rushers, and there is risk in asking them to stand up and change. But they’ll be charging quarterbacks from a variety of spots, and offenses probably prefer to know where exactly they’ll be lining up.

Pagano helped Indianapolis land three players he coached in Baltimore: nose tackle Brandon McKinney, end Cory Redding and safety Tom Zbikowski. The draft added only fifth-round nose tackle Josh Chapman and seventh-round end Tim Fugger.

How much of the personnel deficiencies, especially in the secondary, can Pagano and Manusky cover up with scheme?


Houston Texans

Matt Schaub has been Houston’s starting quarterback for five seasons, and he’s played all 16 games only twice. You can’t blame him for a bad-luck injury like last year’s right foot Lisfranc issue that required serious surgery. Still, to be a big-time quarterback, you need to be on the field.

Schaub has yet to play in a postseason game. Although the Texans weren’t able to hold everything together from their first playoff team, they still have a strong roster. In 2012, this should be a playoff team that can challenge for the AFC South crown. But it won’t get to the postseason or do well in it if Schaub doesn’t have a solid, consistent and healthy season.

His contract situation complicates things. This is the final year of his deal, so he has a lot at stake. I think the Texans will look to keep Schaub in place no matter what happens. If he’s banged up and they don’t impress with a deep playoff run, Schaub will get less of a jackpot than he would if they run away with the division and go to the Super Bowl.

Schaub can be excellent running coach Gary Kubiak’s offense, and the quarterback and coach are probably married for the long term. Kubiak was last year’s pressure point and he performed. This year it’s on Schaub.

Washington Redskins

Trent Williams was the No. 4 pick in the 2010 NFL draft -- Mike Shanahan's first draft pick after he became the Redskins' coach. There were pre-draft questions about Williams' work ethic and focus, but the Redskins took him super-high because they saw a rare talent -- a franchise left tackle with enough athleticism, skill and technique to dominate at the position for years to come. Over the course of the 2010 season, they would see occasional flashes of brilliance, but Williams did not sustain those, and too often he struggled against the tough pass-rushers of the NFC East. In the early part of the 2011 season, he seemed to be developing greater consistency, and the Redskins began to think he would soon justify his draft position and their hopes for him.

Alas, there were injuries. And then that four-game drug suspension at the end of the year. And now Williams enters his third NFL season with a lot of those same old questions yapping at his heels. Can he stay focused? Heck, can he stay clean? Can he take another leap forward toward or even into that elite level of which his team believes him capable? Can he project himself as a responsible leader on a young team that needs him to be among its best players? The Redskins spent four very high draft picks on Robert Griffin III as their quarterback of the future, and the protection of that investment against injury falls to Williams as much as it falls to anyone in the organization. Does Williams understand the magnitude of his responsibility?

If he gets busted for drugs again, the problems are probably not fixable. He'd be banned for a year without pay, forfeiting a tremendous amount of the money he got on a rookie deal in the final year before the implementation of the rookie wage scale. But assuming he's not going to make that same dumb mistake again, the Redskins still need more from Williams in 2012. It's not about potential anymore. It's time for him to play like one of the best in the league at his position. We've seen him do it for a game or two here and there. The Redskins need to see it for 16.


Philadelphia Eagles

Some of these are easier to pick than others. This one, for example. The person under the most pressure to deliver big-time results for the Eagles in 2012 is clearly, without question, quarterback Michael Vick. The Eagles have put every conceivable piece in place around him. They kept wide receiver DeSean Jackson, giving him the long-term deal he wanted after he sulked through a disappointing 2011 campaign. They just locked up running back LeSean McCoy, who scored 20 touchdowns last season and showed he can alleviate any pressure Vick might once have felt to score on his own at the goal line. They beefed up on defense. They tried to keep the offensive line together, and when an injury to Jason Peters kept them from doing that, they went right out and signed the best left tackle still left on the market.

The Eagles watched what Vick did in 2010 and believed they had something special -- a quarterback of such unique talent that, if all else were equal, he could elevate them above the rest of the league and to Super Bowl glory. But the Vick of 2011 let them down. He was too turnover-prone during the team's slow start, helping cost the Eagles very close games in September and October. He got injured and missed three games late, denying the Eagles a chance to climb back into a winnable division race. He played fine and put up nice numbers when he was healthy, but he didn't do anything to make the Eagles extra-great, and too many times he did things that hurt the cause.

The Eagles have high hopes for 2012, and reason to believe they've addressed trouble spots on a leaky defense. They have star-caliber players at key spots on the roster -- running back, receiver, defensive end, cornerback. They believe they have the pieces in place to be one of the best teams in the league. But they need their quarterback to make it all go, and for that reason Vick faces more pressure this season than does any quarterback in the entire league.


New York Giants

This was a tough one, since the Giants are basically playing with house money after their second Super Bowl title in five years. Sure, they're expected to defend that title, but if they don't, how disappointed can Giants fans really be? After everything the Giants' players proved in December, January and February, the roster isn't exactly loaded with guys who have much left to prove.

So to answer the question of who faces the "most challenging" season, I'm going with running back Ahmad Bradshaw. He's proved he's tough by playing through pain. He's proved he's good by putting up big numbers when given the starting job. He's proved he has leadership qualities by calling out his offensive line early last year. But with Brandon Jacobs gone off to San Francisco in free agency and a group of very young backups behind him, Bradshaw in 2012 has to prove he can handle a full season's workload without breaking down.

This isn't going to be easy. He has said the procedures he had done this offseason on his chronically injured foot have corrected the problem and he's going to be 100 percent going forward. But there's no way to know that until we see (and he sees) how this particular season wears on him. Jacobs got about 40 percent of the Giants' running back touches last year, and unless someone like Da'Rel Scott, D.J. Ware or first-round pick David Wilson is ready to step in and assume Jacobs' share of the work, more is going to fall to Bradshaw. He has the ability and the will to be "the guy" at running back for the Super Bowl champs, and he may well be able to pull it off. He could be one of the breakout offensive stars of the NFL season -- a fantasy sleeper, even. But he heads into the season with less help than he's had in the past and without the safety net that's always been provided by his friend Jacobs.


Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys' problems are defensive problems, and for this reason the man under the most pressure in Dallas in 2012 is second-year defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. Brought in to fix a defense that ranked among the league's worst in 2010, Ryan enjoyed some good early returns but saw his defense collapse and effectively give away a division title that was within the Cowboys' grasp with five games left in the season.

There was improvement, of course, as there almost had to be. The Cowboys allowed the second-most points in the league in 2010 and only the 17th-most in 2011. And in terms of yards allowed, they improved from 23rd in the league to 14th. But grading a defense against the one the Cowboys employed in 2010 is like grading a song against Rebecca Black's "Friday." Just because it's better doesn't mean it's acceptable. Ryan was brought in to be a savior -- to overhaul the defense and elevate it to a championship level. Not only did he not do that in 2011, but the defense was the clear reason the Cowboys failed to reach the playoffs. The Cowboys couldn't stop anyone in December other than the sorry Buccaneers, and that's why they lost four of their last five.

Now, if the Eagles are allowed to use the lockout and the reduced preparation time as an excuse for why things didn't work as well as they'd planned, the Cowboys can too. It's fair to assume that Ryan's defense will be better in his second year in Dallas, given a full offseason in addition to the year he's already spent installing and running it. And the additions at cornerback -- free-agent cornerback Brandon Carr and first-round draft pick Morris Claiborne -- address what was the defense's biggest problem. But Ryan's got to show something really impressive this year, because if the Cowboys' defense is costing them games again in December, his record and his pedigree aren't going to be enough to spare him the blame.



Buffalo Bills

Things are looking up for the Buffalo Bills. A team that finished 6-10 and in last place in the AFC East in 2011 had arguably the league's best offseason. The Bills acquired defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson in free agency, drafted first-round cornerback Stephon Gilmore, and gave contract extensions to in-house stars Fred Jackson and Steve Johnson.

But each move adds more pressure to third-year Bills coach Chan Gailey, who is 10-22 in his first two seasons in Buffalo.

Is Gailey a good NFL head coach? It's hard to say. He was 18-14 in two seasons with the Dallas Cowboys before he was abruptly fired. Gailey still carries that sting after being relieved of his position without ever posting a losing season in Dallas. He has struggled in Buffalo, but hasn't had nearly the same talent that he had with the Cowboys.

Talent is no longer a question this year in Buffalo. The Bills spent to the cap to nab top free agents, and many in-house players are coming into their own. Buffalo now has enough talent to make a playoff push. The question is, can Gailey and his staff put it all together?

This is a no-excuses year for Gailey. It's time to finally show what he can do in Buffalo with a bevy of talent at his disposal.


New England Patriots

It's hard enough to replace a New England Patriots legend. It's even harder when you're stepping into one of the most important jobs on the team.

That's the situation facing the Patriots' new starting left tackle, Nate Solder. The 2011 first-round pick is entering his second season, and his first as the full-time protector of quarterback Tom Brady's blind side.

Solder did a good job in relief of injured right tackle Sebastian Vollmer last year. Solder showed good movement and footwork in pass protection, and New England's elite offense didn't miss a beat. This year, he'll be replacing three-time Super Bowl winner Matt Light on the left side, which is more challenging. Light retired this year after 11 seasons. He started in his fifth Super Bowl last season, capping a great career.

Now, Solder will be facing the best pass-rushers the NFL has to offer. Brady will be 35 in August and needs to take as few hits as possible. Solder was taken in the first round to eventually replace Light. That time came a little sooner than expected, but Solder has to be ready.


Miami Dolphins

Some starting NFL quarterbacks have one challenger breathing down their neck waiting to take their job. But very few incumbents have two quarterbacks gunning for them. That is the situation Matt Moore of the Miami Dolphins is in.

Moore is coming off a career year, going 6-3 in his last nine starts for Miami in 2011. He was the second most consistent quarterback in the AFC East after Tom Brady of the New England Patriots. However, that wasn't nearly enough for Moore to enter this season as Miami's unquestioned starter. He has to compete with veteran David Garrard in training camp.

Even if Moore fends off Garrard in the short term, he would still have to fight off Dolphins first-round pick Ryan Tannehill in the long term. Tannehill is clearly the quarterback of the future in Miami. How quickly Tannehill will take over depends on the rookie's learning curve and Moore's ability to win games.

It's a high-pressure situation for Moore, as it appears nothing will be good enough in Miami. Moore is entering the final year of his contract, and even if he puts up big numbers, Tannehill is expected to take his job for good in 2013.

Moore proved last season that he can handle pressure. He pulled the 0-7 Dolphins out of the gutter by infusing new energy. Miami played solid football in the second half of the season.

But this is a situation Moore won't survive with the Dolphins. The best he can hope for is to beat out Garrard and get enough playing time this year to show another team he can be a long-term starter.


New York Jets

Tony Sparano is very likable and well-respected in NFL circles. But even he might not be sure exactly what he's getting into by taking over the New York Jets' combustible offense.

Sparano was a longtime rival of the Jets as former head coach of the Miami Dolphins. He's well aware of the talent but also the personalities in New York. Sparano's biggest responsibility this season isn't X's and O's. It's fixing chemistry and getting everyone to play as a group.

Quarterback Mark Sanchez and No. 1 receiver Santonio Holmes didn't get along last season. Neither did Holmes and right tackle Wayne Hunter. The defense also bickered with the offense last season for not holding up its end. Oh, by the way, there's also a brewing quarterback controversy between Sanchez and wildly popular backup Tim Tebow. This is a lot for Sparano to manage.

In terms of strategy, Sparano has to step up his game. The Sparano I saw in Miami was very conservative and often criticized for going for (and celebrating) too many field goals. That won't fly in New York. It's Sparano's job to produce more touchdowns on the field and better chemistry off it.

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ty ty crash

Every year people get fired up for the NFL draft, only to be disappointed when they don't see immediate dividends. I do it too. But the reality is that many consider the jump from college to the NFL as bad or worse than the jump from high school to college. It's like the old cliché about sitting down in your first college class at Yale, and the teacher asks "How many of you were valedictorians?" Half the hands go up.

Same deal with the NFL. Nearly every one of these guys was an impact player in college. So I like to look at some guys who saw the field as rookies, or maybe didn't see much but could make a big jump in their second year. I call them my "Leap Year" players.

There could be a few dozen from the 2011 draft, but here are some who jumped out at me based on where they play and the situation they could be in. And remember, if they had a really great rookie year, they won't be on this list. These are in no particular order.

Leonard Hankerson, WR, Redskins
I thought Hankerson was just about to really get it going last year when a hip injury derailed his season. While the Redskins went out and made several moves at wide receiver, I think Hankerson could put up big numbers as a down-the-field threat in Mike Shanahan's offense. He's a bigger target, something this offense lacks otherwise, outside of tight end Fred Davis.

Tyron Smith, OT, Cowboys
How could I have Smith here after he started 16 games for the Cowboys in 2011? It's not that he started, it's where he starts. Smith won't be 22 until December, and the Cowboys worked the youngster in on the right side last year. But if he takes over at left tackle, in a division with the kind of pass-rushers the NFC East has, it'll be a true test of his value. I think he'll do well.

Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Jets
I had Wilkerson pegged as a very promising lineman out of Temple in 2011, but I said that if he waited another year, he had the chance to be a top-10 pick in the 2012 draft. Well, the Jets were sold on the promise, and I think after a year of development, Wilkerson will arrive in 2012. The addition of Quinton Coples will help in the matchups game as well.

Jake Locker, QB, Titans
Now, Locker needs to win the job outright. But look at the situation he could come into. Chris Johnson could be reinvigorated, the offensive line should be improved, and the return of Kenny Britt plus the addition of Kendall Wright (and Nate Washington can still play) make this offense a lot more formidable. Among the three first-round QB picks from last year who really need to make the jump, including Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert, I like Locker's chances in 2012.

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Richard Mackson/US Presswire
Flanked by Marion Williams, Marcell Dareus could be more productive in 2012.
Marcell Dareus, DT, Bills
When he lines up at the 4-3 DT position in 2012, Dareus will be able to look to his right and see Mario Williams. To his left will be Kyle Williams. Something's gotta give. I like Dareus in this scheme better, and I think he can really take off as a penetrator from the DT position in 2012. The guy will wreck some pockets.

Robert Quinn, DE, Rams
I fully expected Quinn to have a so-so rookie season after sitting out his entire final season at North Carolina. But now comfortable, he could easily double the 5.0 sacks he notched last year. Too much talent to keep down.

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings
He caught 26 passes as a rookie, and Rudolph could double that in 2012 as he and Ponder get on the same page. He has great hands and made his share of circus catches last year. If Ponder can get comfortable, Rudolph benefits.

Marvin Austin, DT, Giants
This is more of a long shot because Austin isn't even slated to start, but while he got hurt last year and never really got his season on track, I think he can be a big part of the rotation in 2012 if his health is there. This is an immensely talented kid who just needs to keep his motor running; Tom Coughlin will get him going.

Randall Cobb, WR, Packers
We saw Cobb's explosiveness in the return game last year, but I think he can become a bigger part of the passing game. Remember, this is a former college QB, so there's a learning curve. Give him a full training camp, and with the year under his belt, it's hard to imagine that Green Bay won't want him to get more touches. He's a big-play threat every time he touches the ball.

Justin Houston, OLB, Chiefs
Houston got the tweener tag in a bad way during the draft and fell down the board. Converted to a 3-4 OLB under Romeo Crennel, he began to show off some of his natural pass-rushing skills toward the end of last year. Look for him to emerge as he comes into 2012 comfortable in his role.

Clyde Gates, WR, Dolphins
This is another longer shot because Gates didn't show us much last year. But Miami lacks weapons in the passing game, and this kid can fly if he can become a dependable pass-catcher. Interested to see if he develops into a player. The potential is there for a leap, though.

Jimmy Smith, CB, Ravens
He wasn't healthy to start the year, and Lardarius Webb rightly drew a lot of the attention. But with QBs looking to stay away from Webb, I wouldn't be surprised to see a healthy Smith play at a Pro Bowl level in 2012. The guy has a ton of talent; he just needs to stay healthy and get comfortable in the system.

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Hook it up

You've watched the games, you've seen the stats, you've heard the news: NFL teams are attempting and completing more passes. Three quarterbacks are on pace to break Dan Marino's single-season record for passing yards (5,084 in 1984). Aaron Rodgers throws another touchdown every time you blink.

Which raises the question: Where is all this extra passing yardage coming from?

There are two answers. This week, we'll look at deep throws, where there's an interesting missing link in the stats, and we'll keep you in suspense about the second reason until later in the season.

Best Downfield Passers through Week 10
Quarterback YPA TD INT QBR
Aaron Rodgers 29.5 7 1 100
Alex Smith 14.6 2 0 100
Tony Romo 24.1 6 1 99.9
Drew Brees 18.5 6 1 99.9
Kyle Orton 19 2 2 99.5
Eli Manning 15.2 6 2 99.3
Matthew Stafford 15.4 7 0 98.2
Matt Schaub 13.1 5 0 98
Ben Roethlisberger 13.6 5 2 97.9
Cam Newton 15.7 4 2 97.5
Best deep throwers
As teams keep opening up their passing games -- spread formations, three-receiver sets and pass-catching tight end tandems are practically de rigueur around the league these days -- quarterbacks are seizing the chance to bomb away. Last year, just one quarterback, Drew Brees, threw for more than 1,000 yards on passes of more than 20 yards. This year, five are on pace to do so: Brees, Eli Manning, Cam Newton, Rodgers and Tony Romo. Even more impressive, from 2008 to 2010, only one quarterback (Brees in 2009) completed more than 50 percent of his passes on deep throws, while this season alone, three (Brees, Rodgers and Romo) are connecting on more than half their throws of more than 20 yards.

Three things stand out about this rise in deep throwing. One is that it's pretty much confined to the above handful of passers. Overall, passing yardage is up by just 4.6 percent around the league (231.7 yards per team per game in 2011 versus 221.6 in 2010), because while several quarterbacks are having great years, a nearly offsetting batch are either having disturbing off seasons (Josh Freeman, Kevin Kolb, Philip Rivers) or enduring rocky times as midseason replacements (John Beck, Blaine Gabbert, Curtis Painter). By themselves, the five superbombers are on track to increase their deep yards by about 3,000 yards from last season (with Newton compared to Jimmy Clausen's 2010 stats), nearly 60 percent of all the yardage the entire league is on pace to add this year.

Further, I'm sure you've heard this in other contexts, but the numbers Rodgers is putting up are just ridiculous. Last year, Brees led the NFL with 16.5 yards per attempt on throws of more than 20 yards. This season, Rodgers is gaining 29.5 yards per attempt on deep throws. That's not a misprint: He's 17-of-25 (68 percent) for a whopping 738 yards when throwing downfield, with seven touchdowns and just one interception. Rodgers' QBR on deep throws: a perfect 100, essentially meaning he's better than anyone the system can simulate.

Finally, from the standpoint of doing what it takes to help teams win games (as opposed to just piling up gross yardage), most quarterbacks in the NFL are very effective at throwing deep. QBR tends to go up on long throws for reasons that are precisely the opposite of why it goes down in the red zone: When you're deep in your own territory, you have the most chance to gain expected points by amassing a big chunk of yardage with one bomb and less to lose if you happen to turn the ball over. Indeed, this year, starting quarterbacks have an average QBR of 57.3 on throws of 10 yards or fewer but 80.4 on throws of more than 20 yards. And half the quarterbacks in the league have a QBR of 92.2 or higher on deep throws, including guys who aren't otherwise lighting up the scoreboard, such as Matt Cassel, Joe Flacco and Tarvaris Jackson.

Worst Downfield Passers through Week 10
Quarterback YPA TD INT QBR
Mark Sanchez 7.3 1 3 6.8
John Beck 4.9 0 2 12.7
Donovan McNabb 7.7 1 0 39.1
Curtis Painter 9.9 1 2 39.7
Matt Ryan 7.1 1 0 43.1
Michael Vick 10.1 0 2 56.8
Matt Moore 8.7 1 3 63.3
Sam Bradford 10.6 1 1 69.6
Blaine Gabbert 7.9 2 1 76.3
Jason Campbell 9.4 1 2 78.9
Worst deep throwers
All of which means teams can win with a quarterback who isn't one of the very best in the league at throwing deep, but they will get killed if they don't have one who is at least adequate at throwing deep. The worst quarterbacks on deep throws this year include Mark Sanchez (QBR on passes of more than 20 yards: a hideous 6.8), Beck, Painter Sam Bradford and Gabbert, all of whom are hamstringing their teams and allowing defenses to focus on run-stuffing.

Also notable is Michael Vick, who is bombing away even more frequently than he did last year but has lost his magic touch to DeSean Jackson. Overall, he is killing the Eagles on long pass attempts, where he is just 9-of-34 for 10.1 yards per attempt, no touchdowns and two interceptions.

Brady is an exception
There is one, and only one, superstar quarterback who has put up huge numbers in 2011 without throwing deep too often or particularly well: Tom Brady (QBR this season: 75.5). Brady leads the NFL with 336.9 passing yards per game and is on pace for a record 5,390 yards (Brees has more total yards, but the Patriots have played one fewer game than the Saints.) But Brady is racking up yards by completing a lot of short and medium passes. For the season, Brady is just 9-of-33 on deep throws (27.3 percent), for 10.1 yards per attempt, one touchdown and one pick, while starting quarterbacks are averaging a 35 percent completion rate and 12.7 YPA. When was the last time Brady was below-average at anything?

Even when Brady decided to shake off a two-and-a-half-game mini-slump by taking to the air against the Jets, he annihilated Rex Ryan's crew with surgical strikes, not long-range bombs. In the second half against New York, Brady was 12-of-14 for 106 yards and two touchdowns on throws of 10 yards or fewer, while he didn't complete a single pass of more than 20 yards. (His QBR for the game: 88.6.)

Brady is actually throwing long more often this year (9.2 percent of attempts versus 7.7 percent in 2010), he's just not doing so as often as other teams or as effectively as he used to. Randy Moss is long departed. Brandon Tate, whose speed New England didn't appreciate properly, is gone, too. Receiving production by all of the Patriots' running backs is down sharply. And after a scorching start, Wes Welker has found shorter fields to work with in recent weeks. Unsurprisingly, Brady has responded by throwing much more often to his talented tight ends: Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski have combined for 126 TE targets, by far the most of any team in the league.

Considering the Patriots' remaining schedule, New England is in fine position to take control of the AFC East. But it's trying to do something no other team in the league is attempting this year: to win without even the threat of a downfield passing game. If opposing defenses have figured out how to render Welker effective but human, the Pats' continued success will hinge on whether their tight ends can keep exploiting matchups against overwhelmed linebackers and late-arriving safeties. So keep an eye on Brady in the next five weeks, when New England will play four of the league's 10 best teams at defending tight ends, including Kansas City (which has given up the ninth-fewest yards to tight ends), Philadelphia (fifth), Indianapolis (sixth; maybe the Colts will cover Gronkowski, because they sure won't cover the spread) and Denver (first). And watch out for a Patriots-Ravens matchup in the playoffs; Baltimore has surrendered just 322 yards to tight ends all year, and no touchdowns.

This year, we're seeing how hard it is to win if you can't throw deep. Brady is about to show us whether it's impossible.

Up.

Players and coaches come and go, but the organizations that win consistently in the NFL have a well-defined chain of command within the front office. It's not a big surprise -- winning isn't a great cause for change -- but usually there is a lot of stability within these organizations. That certainly holds true for the top seven teams in Insider's NFL Future Power Rankings. It starts with strong ownership and extends to the structure of the front office and coaching staff.

While there are a number of very good front offices not represented on this list, let's look at how these seven front offices are composed and why they are successful:


Green Bay Packers
This is a blue-collar group without a lot of big egos, and the stability of this organization is outstanding. It started a long time ago with Ron Wolf running the show as GM; his track record for success is well documented. The Packers made the seamless transition to GM Ted Thompson without missing a beat. Like Wolf, Thompson has a scout's mentality and is an executive who still visits colleges, watches film and believes in building primarily through the draft, yet he isn't hesitant to venture into free agency when he's targeting a specific need. Green Bay always has an eye on the future, isn't afraid to make tough decisions and doesn't succumb to outside pressure.

All you have to do is look at how they managed the Brett Favre/Aaron Rodgers situation to know how this organization operates. Coaches coach and scouts scout in Green Bay, but everybody has a voice and Thompson is a consensus builder in terms of decisions. My feeling from talking to people and knowing what I do about how that organization operates is that the staff shouldn't miss a beat with several departures, including Reggie McKenzie's move to Oakland.


New England Patriots
Head coach Bill Belichick is the dominating voice in this organization, and he probably has more power than any other single coach or executive in the NFL. Every decision runs through him, and there is no front office in the NFL that is more well defined in terms of what its goals are than the Patriots. Belichick spends countless hours with scouts and even coaches, defining what they want in each position and how to acquire players who fit into their systems. They know exactly what they are looking for: versatile players with varying skill sets who can fill multiple roles. You don't have to be a perfect player to be a Patriot because Belichick is a genius at plugging a player into a specific role. Scouts are information gatherers and coaches are teachers in this organization, but if you want a high-profile image and publicity, New England isn't where you want to be.

Belichick watches a ton of film (not all head coaches get the time to) and is heavily involved in the player acquisition process, but he will solicit opinions before making a final decision. Nick Caserio, director of player personnel, is a respected voice in the organization and Floyd Reese also is a trusted opinion, though he currently serves in more of a senior advisory role.


New York Giants
This is an old-school organization that has been operating the same way for years no matter who is in charge. For a long time, the late GM George Young ran the show, then Ernie Accorsi stepped in for a productive run, and now it is Jerry Reese's show. This is a front office that takes emotion out of decisions and doesn't seem to care what happens outside its building when it comes to evaluating what other NFL teams are doing. Like Green Bay, the Giants believe in building through the draft, which they have done very successfully in recent years, but they will dabble in free agency to fill a specific need. This isn't an exciting and innovative front office, but it is stable and rarely loses scouts and coaches. When a group has been together this long, success on the field is a natural by-product.


San Francisco 49ers
They are the new kid on the "elite" block, and how quickly their success has come is very impressive. For a number of years, this was one of the most confusing front offices in the NFL after the Eddie DeBartolo dynasty. When that era ended, the York family took over and it seemed like the organization had a lot of non-football decision makers. The roles weren't clearly defined and that led to a lot of instability. However, all of that has changed in the last two years with the hiring of a "real" GM, Trent Baalke, and an outstanding head coach, Jim Harbaugh. Baalke came up through the Bill Parcells football tree (while Harbaugh comes off the Bill Walsh coaching tree) and has had experience in all facets of scouting.

Baalke has masterfully crafted this roster with a lot of input from Harbaugh and his staff. They have a great handle on their players' skill sets, and they adapt their plan to make that fit. They just don't seem to make mistakes, and every decision that they make seems very calculated. This is a much-improved front office.


Pittsburgh Steelers
There isn't a better organization in the NFL at plugging in players to fit their schemes, and they have done it that way for a long time. GM Kevin Colbert is a scouting lifer, and he goes about his job quietly -- which is the Steeler way. They primarily build through the draft, put a premium on keeping and re-signing their own players and are an organization with a lot of loyalty and integrity. Coaches and scouts know exactly what skill sets they are looking for at each position. As established as they are in the way they do things, this is an organization that will push the envelope and show innovation on the field -- they are more creative than you might think. You see very little change in Pittsburgh, as it's almost a family atmosphere, which leads to stability on all levels.


Detroit Lions
The Lions had struggled on all levels for years and for a long time looked hopeless, so their turnaround in the last couple of years has been nothing short of shocking. GM Martin Mayhew has done an excellent job of upgrading the roster through the draft, trades and free agency -- although they seem to prefer to be more draft oriented. Head coach Jim Schwartz is a former scout, so he has a healthy respect for the player-acquisition process. There is good continuity, roles are clearly defined, and they are an organization that seems to prefer drafting according to value -- best player available -- rather than reaching for needs, which manifests itself in a roster that has some real difference makers. Senior personnel executive James Harris, assistant directors of pro personnel Mike McCalmon and Charlie Sanders and assistant director of pro personnel Scott McEwen have had a huge hand in the Lions' recent transformation into a contender. This is a front office to watch in the next couple of years.


Philadelphia Eagles
Stability is the key to this organization. GM Howie Roseman isn't really a "football guy" in the classic sense, but he has a strong business background and a very good scouting department under him to make everything work. Head coach Andy Reid is heavily involved in player acquisitions and organizational decisions. Executive Joe Banner manages the financial side of things, and owner Jeffrey Lurie, who is involved in all decisions, lets his people do their jobs. When you lose two talented guys in your personnel department -- Tom Heckert to Cleveland and Ryan Grigson to Indianapolis to run those teams -- and you don't miss a beat, you are doing something right. Philadelphia has a rock-solid front office.