Quote (hokies @ May 4 2013 03:46pm)
College football just entered its quietest month of the year, but that means we are just that much closer to the start of the season. Just four more months. You can make it.
In the meantime, let's project the breakout players for the 2013 season that began to show signs of stepping forward this spring.
1. Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State Seminoles
I wrote last month about quarterback battles that could produce stars, this year's version of Johnny Manziel and Marcus Mariota. Not long after I focused on Winston, the race was called. Sort of.
Clint Trickett, at one point considered the favorite to win the job, is transferring to West Virginia. Winston was that good in the spring, despite the fact that he moonlights as a Seminoles relief pitcher.
Coach Jimbo Fisher swears the competition is not closed, insisting Jacob Coker is still in the mix. But one Florida newspaper columnist has already compared Winston to Charlie Ward.
Is Winston ready?
"He saw what just happened to E.J.," one person close to the FSU program told me, referring to E.J. Manuel's first-round selection last week. "That got him fired up even more. He had a nice, solid spring. He's an impressive guy."
But Ward? He was a Heisman winner and national champion. Winston is bigger and likely has a bigger arm, but does he have the intangible qualities, and unique running ability, that made Ward a star? With all due apologies to Coker, we're about to find out.
2. Lache Seastrunk, RB, Baylor Bears
When I visited Waco a year ago, I requested to speak with Seastrunk. The SID guys tempered my request by saying he was third on the depth chart and might not play much. If I make it back this year, my request will be approved without pause.
Seastrunk finished the season with five 100-yard performances in the team's final six games. Baylor won each of those games, by the way. So the Oregon transfer was on the verge of breaking out when his team -- one of the hottest in the country, with a signature win against Kansas State -- ran out of games.
Seastrunk just got over 1,000 yards, even though he had just 181 through Oct. 27. What's the ceiling this season in Art Briles' offense? Is it 1,500? More? At what point does he become a Doak Walker candidate, a Heisman hopeful?
Some of it could depend on how good Bryce Petty is as a first-year starter, but those close to the program speak highly of him and he is the latest to join the choir of quarterbacks receiving tutelage from George Whitfield. After seeing how Nick Florence acclimated, even before Seastrunk surged, Bears fans have to feel pretty good about Petty. Petty, like Florence, had time to watch and learn. He's a fourth-year junior.
3. Jordan Jenkins, LB, Georgia Bulldogs
A lot of coaches I know considered Jarvis Jones the best linebacker in college football last year. (Sorry, Manti.) Jones' disruptiveness -- to the tune of 24.5 tackles for a loss, 14.5 of them sacks -- was unparalleled.
Jenkins, who had five sacks as a freshman, was on the field with Jones. Now it's his turn on a unit that will replace two first-rounders, including Jones, and a total of 12 players who started at least one game.
But Jenkins will be the cornerstone, and his rise late last season might have been a preview of what we'll see in the next two falls.
"He gets upfield in a hurry," defensive coordinator Todd Grantham told me during a recent visit. "He has a knack. We had to get him on the field."
Grantham also credited how smooth Jenkins' movement is for someone who is listed at 6-foot-3 and 257 pounds. (Jones is 6-3, 241 pounds, for the sake of comparison.)
The SEC sack race between Jenkins and South Carolina's Jadeveon Clowney could be outstanding. What would the over-under be? It could be 15 or more. Jenkins is in a terrific system to push the 2014 No. 1 overall pick.
Jenkins might wind up being the preeminent defensive star, but safety Josh Harvey-Clemons has stood out in the spring work -- so much that Grantham is considering a safety-linebacker hybrid position that will get him on the field more often, sometimes making the scheme a 3-3-5.
4. Brandon Williams/Trey Williams, RB, Texas A&M Aggies
Earlier in the week, I asked someone on the A&M staff if any of the young backs had started to gain separation. He said not really, noting that veteran Ben Malena would be the lead runner and that both Williamses had great springs.
Trey Williams might receive the nod as No. 2 since he did play last year, averaging 5.8 yards on 65 carries. Then again, Brandon played some at Oklahoma as a freshman when I covered the Sooners in 2011. The tall, shifty runner was not that productive, but he showed flashes.
Malena's inherent value is in his ability to protect Johnny Manziel, something the coaching staff said the younger players are still learning. Whoever picks it up fastest could see the field more, though both Williamses -- and Oregon transfer Tra Carson -- have enough playmaking ability that they'll all get touches in Kevin Sumlin's system.
The situation reminds me a bit of Georgia's a year ago, when Ken Malcome, who has since transferred, was listed as a starter ahead of Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall. That worked out in the end for the Bulldogs (and introduced college football fans to two of the better young backs in the country). And this should for the Aggies.
5. Stephen Morris, QB, Miami Hurricanes
Is it possible for a player who passed for more than 3,000 yards and 20-plus touchdowns to fall into the breakout category? It's stretching the definition, for sure, but Morris' 3,345-yard, 21-TD season in 2012 was quiet, wasn't it?
I mentioned North Carolina earlier in the week as one of the nation's preeminent sleeper teams, but Miami -- also in UNC's division -- could be another. If the Hurricanes start turning heads and competing for a BCS spot, Morris could quickly become the face of the program's long-awaited resurrection (so long as the NCAA does not quash it, after all).
Miami returns its entire starting offense, including seven receivers who caught passes from Morris. It might come as a surprise to some that the Hurricanes were 16th in the country last season in yards per play (6.46).
Morris and Miami might not be so under the radar this season. Already this week, Brock Huard of Insider listed Morris as his eighth-rated QB prospect.
"No quarterback made more throws that forced me to rewind the tape ... than Morris," he wrote. "He has unique arm talent but must play every snap consistently."
6. Kelvin Taylor, RB, Florida Gators
When I talked to Gators coach Will Muschamp in March, he did not seem at all concerned about the running back spot following the loss of workhorse Mike Gillislee.
"We've recruited pretty well at that position," Muschamp said.
Taylor, the son of former UF standout Fred Taylor, arrived in January as the most decorated of those recruits. Muschamp said Taylor's ability to adapt to the winter workouts was "pretty remarkable." After a solid spring, he ran for 60 yards in the team's final scrimmage.
So Taylor is on schedule -- even if Muschamp, expectantly, says there is still much for the freshman to learn. Matt Jones and Mack Brown are listed No. 1 and No. 2 on the depth chart, but Taylor will have the summer and fall to continue catching them. Muschamp has said they will all play, though Gillislee's 244 carries a year ago says the staff is not afraid to ride one guy if he gets going.
If you're looking for a candidate to be this year's version of Gurley or Marcus Lattimore in the SEC East, Taylor would be a good place to start.
7. Nelson Agholor, WR, USC Trojans
The last time I had Trojans receivers coach Tee Martin on the phone, I asked him how Agholor was coming along now that Robert Woods is gone.
Martin compared it to the way Marqise Lee, when he was entering his sophomore year, began to emerge once everyone got wise to stopping Woods. Now it's Lee who will command the attention from defenses, creating opportunities for others -- most notably Agholor.
"He's a still young guy, still makes mistakes, still learning," Martin said, "but he's got something to him. He can play."
That's why Lane Kiffin left the Golden State to mine Agholor from the Sunshine State.
There is the matter of who is going to throw to Lee, Agholor and the other receivers. Max Wittek and Cody Kessler are dueling this spring and summer, and freshman Max Browne might eventually enter the equation. Martin was complimentary of all three, saying the offense would be in good shape regardless of the starter.
8. Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri Tigers
We had Green-Beckham projected as an impact player a year ago, and it turns out we were a little early. Some of it, including a pot arrest, was on him. Some of it, unsteady quarterback play and a rough first go-around in the SEC, was not really his doing.
But now that Green-Beckham knows what he is up against -- and Missouri does too, for that matter -- he could easily produce the way a former top prospect is expected. Even against elite-level corners, Green-Beckham's size -- 6-6 and 220 pounds -- figures to lead to progression.
"We saw him coming around," said one SEC assistant who played Missouri later in the year. "It didn't make us look forward to seeing him again."
After seven receptions in his first five games, and then the two-game suspension, Green-Beckham averaged 4.2 catches and 53.4 yards in the final five games. He had four of his five touchdowns in that span, becoming the red zone threat that had some comparing him to A.J. Green and Julio Jones.
9. Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama Crimson Tide
I was told late last season, when I covered the Texas A&M game in Tuscaloosa, that Clinton-Dix was quickly emerging as the Tide's top player in the secondary. And that was including cornerback Dee Milliner, who went in the first round last week.
In talking this week with TideNation reporter Alex Scarborough, he said the coaching staff is high on Clinton-Dix's ability to cover and close on the ball. That was on display in the BCS title game, when Clinton-Dix got across the field to intercept a deep throw down the sideline that was tipped by a Tide corner.
Clinton-Dix appeared at No. 24 on Todd McShay's initial 2014 Big Board, and he could rise with his play this fall. He might not be as physical of a safety as Mark Barron was at Bama, but his instincts and range are considered on par with or better than the No. 7 pick in the 2012 draft.
10. Wesley Johnson, OL, Vanderbilt Commodores
You won't find the next Barrett Jones at Alabama. No, he's up Interstate 65 in Nashville, Tenn.
When we were in town in January for the coaches' convention, Vanderbilt O-line coach Herb Hand was already preaching the gospel about Johnson. I told him Wednesday I was including Johnson in this post, and he again lit up about the veteran.
"THE most versatile offensive lineman in the country," he said via text. "Hands down."
That went along with my link to Jones. Hand called it a "solid comparison" to the scholarly Jones, who was a fourth-round pick in last week's draft after a decorated career for the Tide.
Hand reminded me that Johnson had 38 career starts at four positions. In 2,462 career plays, he has never once been called for a hold.
Vanderbilt has regularly produced NFL prospects in the past few years, but Johnson is a part of a team that has been to consecutive bowl games -- and the Commodores won nine games in 2012. Repeat: Vanderbilt won nine games in 2012. As an SEC team. That should count for something for the team's leaders, Johnson included.
11. Devin Gardner, QB, Michigan Wolverines
A year ago, we wondered if Gardner could be a viable target for Denard Robinson. Heck, that much had not changed by October. But then Robinson hurt his elbow and Gardner was thrust into duty.
When I visited Ann Arbor last month as part of the ESPN bus tour, Gardner was like the mayor of the football facility. It means something to be comfortable in your skin, doesn't it? And it means something to be comfortable at your position, doesn't it? Especially for a quarterback.
"I missed it," Gardner said. "I mean, I am a quarterback. I have played quarterback since I was 6."
Gardner threw 11 touchdowns in the final five games after he took over, and the coaching staff said he looked more at ease with each week.
A couple of hours before I interviewed coach Brady Hoke, I ran into him in the hallway. He immediately started talking about Gardner's development.
"He needs to understand a punt is not a bad play," Hoke said. "Sometimes it's OK to throw it away, throw it underneath. [There is] no need to force things."
That is what Hoke has been drilling into Gardner's head this spring. A more efficient, smarter quarterback could emerge this fall -- which is saying something considering he was not even a quarterback at this time last year.
12. Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina Tar Heels
Honestly, I was not all that familiar with Ebron until I visited Chapel Hill last week and coach Larry Fedora said he expected a 55- or 65-catch, 10-touchdown season from his junior tight end. That got my attention. It's rare that coaches establish statistical goals for players -- and volunteer them to a reporter.
Ebron did not have a 100-yard game last season, but he did average 3.3 catches and 52.1 yards a game. The catches could double, and the yardage should jump too. Don't be surprised if Ebron is a hot draft name next spring, with versatile tight ends taking more precedence these days in the NFL than running backs.
An athletic, pass-catching tight end is a great fit in Fedora's up-tempo system, and quarterback Bryn Renner really settled in toward the end of his first season in the offense. Renner completed 71 percent of his passes and averaged 332 yards a game in the team's final four games of 2012.
For Ebron and Renner to have big years, the multipronged run game -- picking up for electric second-round pick Gio Bernard -- will have to provide balance. Even in the carry-share, keep an eye on early-enrolling freshman Khris Francis. He had a 100-yard showing in the team's spring game and has the same sort of skill set -- good target on checkdowns, elusive -- that made Bernard effective in the offense.
13. Dontre Wilson, RB, Ohio State Buckeyes
"The next Percy Harvin" is a tag that has sometimes been handed out -- maybe because we, as observers, really would like to see that again in the college game -- but never realized by players on past Urban Meyer-coached teams. While it's probably unfair to put that on a player who isn't even on campus yet (and no, we haven't seen what he can do this spring), Wilson could be an early-impact guy for the Buckeyes. He likely would have been an instant hit in Oregon's tempo offense, but his late flip to Ohio State creates even more of an immediate opportunity for the Texas speedster.
Meyer told me recently that several newcomers would contribute, and he was almost certainly referring to Wilson as one of them. Even with gradual improvement, if Wilson does pan out -- this year or beyond -- it could open the door for Meyer to land additional gamebreaker types. Accounting for a player in the Harvin mold, in addition to Braxton Miller's playmaking ability, would create serious issues for the Buckeyes' opponents.
14. Daniel Sams, QB, Kansas State Wildcats
Big 12 blogger David Ubben wrote this week -- and I agree with him -- that Sams is the fastest quarterback in the conference. The only problem with including him in this list is that he might not wind up being the starter by September.
Junior college transfer Jake Waters has pushed Sams since enrolling, and both put up monster numbers in K-State's spring game. Sams was 18-of-28 for 391 yards and four touchdowns, and he ran for another score. Waters missed on only four of his 18 passes, throwing for 249 yards and three scores. He also ran for a TD.
You can see Bill Snyder's dilemma. He likely will not name a starter until the week of the Wildcats' opener.
Projecting the end result, both Sams and Waters might be too talented to keep the other off the field. It could be a week-to-week, hot-hand kind of thing, or perhaps Sams, with his athleticism, could be used at the same time as Waters. The players and circumstances are different, but Northwestern's Kain Colter (a 2012 breakout choice) and Michigan's Robinson were used in a variety of ways while a more conventional passer took the snaps. In each case, the coaching staffs said they were finding ways to get their most talented players on the field. So instead of Sams or Waters, it should be Sams and Waters -- at least at times.
15. Arik Armstead, DL, Oregon Ducks
The offense gets the bulk of the publicity in Eugene, but No. 3 overall pick Dion Jordan joins Haloti Ngata as Oregon D-linemen who have been early first-rounders. Is Armstead working toward that territory?
Jordan included, Armstead was surrounded by talent a year ago, but he will need to make more of an imprint as a sophomore. He appears ready, having stayed in shape -- maybe even tightened up a bit -- by playing for the Sweet 16 hoops team. He stepped right off the hardwood and onto the spring football field.
Good luck getting a pass over the middle of the Oregon line. In addition to Armstead, 6-8 and 280 pounds, fellow sophomore DeForest Buckner (6-7, 285 pounds) will be involved in the tackle rotation.
Running back Thomas Tyner, a freshman who could start from day one, could easily fit into this discussion. He will likely produce in the plug-and-play attack that saw Kenjon Barner seamlessly step in for LaMichael James -- although Barner had been in the fold for some time.