Quote (hokies @ Apr 26 2013 12:57pm)
NEW YORK -- Well, we told you the 2013 NFL draft was going to be unpredictable, and while it was in spots, there were also a lot of picks that turned out how I thought they might. But every time you thought it all made sense, something would happen to throw a wrench into the flow.
Start at the top. The tackles dominated the day as we thought they would, particularly early. But then Miami really surprised me. I thought the Dolphins would make the move up for a tackle, and instead they went with Dion Jordan after completing the trade with Oakland. And while I expected Oakland to move down, I thought the Raiders would be able to create more value from that No. 3 pick.
Elsewhere, the QB class we've said for a long time simply wasn't that good -- the top quarterback on my final Big Board was Geno Smith at No. 25 overall -- was essentially indicted by a grand jury of GMs. That was partly expected, but then Buffalo surprised me a little bit with the curveball on EJ Manuel.
Most picks made sense, but there were others I wonder about. Here are a few I really liked and others that raised questions:
Three I liked
Pittsburgh Steelers
The pick: Jarvis Jones, No. 17
Summary: The Steelers saw the board set up really well. I thought they might be split between Jones and Tyler Eifert, but they really needed another pass-rusher. When the guy who led the country in sacks and tackles for loss -- and did it against plenty of SEC competition -- is sitting there at No. 17, you take him. Jones was No. 1 on my Big Board for much of the year but dipped some during the evaluation process after not working out in Indy and not running well at his pro day. Well, turns out he's better wearing football pads than Under Armour. Love the value.
Cincinnati Bengals
The pick: Tyler Eifert, No. 21
Summary: He finished the draft season as the No. 8 player on my Big Board, and the Bengals took advantage of a major value and the fact that they don't have a ton of needs. With Eifert, you now have a situation where he, A.J. Green and Jermaine Gresham are causing major matchup problems. You can throw to these guys even when they're covered. You also help to maximize Andy Dalton, who doesn't have a huge arm and could use another intermediate target who can work the middle of the field.
St. Louis Rams
The picks: Tavon Austin, No. 8; Alec Ogletree, No. 30
Summary: Impact players. The Rams just know how to manipulate the draft board. They moved up to take a player so the Jets couldn't get him at No. 9, then they moved down and still managed to get a player who I thought could have gone as high as No. 21 to Cincinnati. With Austin, you get the premier touchdown creator in the draft, and Ogletree could be exceptional behind what is a very good defensive line.
More: The Jags improve at left tackle and right tackle with the addition of Luke Joeckel. Good pick. ... The Vikings gave up a lot of value to get that final first-round pick. I think about it this way: You give up a second, third and fourth, but you walk away from the draft thinking you've added three starters. You might add only a couple starters from a typical draft, so if you feel you got three, the later picks don't look quite as valuable. They got a great value in Sharrif Floyd, and Cordarrelle Patterson dropped a little further than I thought. ... Houston needed a wide receiver and got their favorite one with DeAndre Hopkins. I like the pick. ... Sylvester Williams was a pretty good value at No. 28. The Broncos should feel pretty good about that defensive line. ... Good for the Raiders to move down and get picks. They've been outsiders in the draft too often. They got the corner they like and can get a defensive lineman tomorrow. ... The Eagles didn't move, and the perfect left tackle for their system was sitting there at No. 4. ... Detroit hit a big need. Next up: tackle and corner? ... Really like Datone Jones in Green Bay.
Three I questioned
Miami Dolphins
The pick: Dion Jordan, No. 3
Summary: The Dolphins threw the first 12-to-6 curveball of the night when they moved up to take Jordan with the No. 3 overall pick. In terms of board value, Jordan isn't much of a reach. We're talking about the No. 5 player on my Big Board. But I question if Jordan can stay on the field for them. As Jon Gruden noted, he was on and off the field a lot for Oregon, doesn't have the size to play as a 4-3 defensive end and is coming off a shoulder injury. So Miami will have to be smart about how it deploys him. That said, the Dolphins didn't give up an arm and a leg to get Jordan. Giving up just a second-round pick wasn't too bad to get all the way from No. 12 to No. 3. I just figured they would take the better player (at a need position) in Lane Johnson.
New York Jets
The picks: Dee Milliner at No. 9; Sheldon Richardson at No. 13
Summary: I don't have a problem with taking the best cornerback in the draft at No. 9 overall. I considered scenarios where Milliner went as high as No. 3 to the Raiders, so to get him six spots later is fine. Darrelle Revis is gone, and while Milliner isn't Revis, he is about $13 million cheaper in 2013 and is going to continue to get better. (Remember, Revis Island didn't form in Year 1 either.) Where the Jets puzzled me a little bit is with Richardson at No. 13. This is a very good player, and the board value lines up, but if they were stuck between Richardson and Geno Smith, I think they were off altogether. I would have gone with a player like Eifert there, someone who adds a new dimension to what was a woeful offense. They may not think much of what they have at quarterback, but they could at least try to add another weapon. With Richardson around, I'm interested to see what Rex Ryan does with his base defense up front. I love Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples, so where Richardson fits in up front will be something they have to figure out.
Buffalo Bills
The pick: EJ Manuel at No. 16
Summary: I'm going to root for Manuel, because he's a great kid and because Buffalo deserves to draft a quarterback and have it work out. But he was my No. 6-ranked quarterback because he hasn't developed as a player who reads the whole field and gets through his progressions well. And he's had the reps. What I will say about Buffalo is it got a ton of board value by moving down. If Manuel was the guy the Bills liked all along -- and it's clear he was -- they had a sound strategy to get the heck out of that No. 8 spot to get more out of this draft, as well as a quarterback they can attempt to develop. I simply question the pick because Manuel at that spot is a reach.
More: Kyle Long should help the Bears, but I'm taking Eifert if I were them. ... I'm not going to question the 49ers, who have been brilliant in putting together that roster; I'll just note that there were a couple of safeties I liked better than Eric Reid, and I thought it was a little surprising that they would move up to get him. But give them credit: They have the arsenal of picks to move. ... Justin Pugh to the Giants at No. 19 was a reach on my board. He'll be fine, but he's not a tackle and will move to guard. I know they don't like to take linebackers in Round 1, but I thought they could have taken a corner, perhaps Desmond Trufant, whom Atlanta ended up trading up to get at No. 22. ... Travis Frederick is an immediate starter for the Cowboys, who played half their roster at the position last year, but he's also the No. 87-ranked player on my board. Good need pick, but not a great value. ... Bjoern Werner isn't what I'd consider a great fit for Indy, but there's development left so we'll see what the Colts can do with him.