Monday, April 22, 2013
Colin Kaepernick affords San Francisco great salary-cap and draft flexibility.
In 1991, the San Francisco 49ers had two picks among the top 45 in the NFL draft. That season was significant because it marked the official transition from Joe Montana to Steve Young at quarterback; it was not significant for anything those draft picks did. In fact, the team got nothing out of them at all in 1991. Neither started a single game. The good thing is the 49ers didn't really need them -- it was a good football team. In 1992 it became a great one and those first two picks from the previous year were a big reason. The humongous Ted Washington (first round) got his first starts in what would become a 205-start career at nose tackle. And Ricky Watters (second round) ran for over 1,000 yards for a 14-2 team, the first season in an eight-year stretch where the 49ers averaged 12 wins per season.
I bring up those picks because last year, the 49ers also experienced a season where they made a significant move at quarterback, were still really good and, like that 1991 team, got less out of their rookie class than any team in the NFL. A.J. Jenkins (first round) and LaMichael James (second) were almost completely anonymous. So was the rest of the draft.
But this is the important reality: The 49ers didn't have a bad 2012 draft. Not in the least. In fact, that they had no use for two pretty talented players is because the roster was in such impeccable shape to begin with.
And even with a few notable offseason defections such as Dashon Goldson, Isaac Sopoaga and Delanie Walker, the roster is still in really good shape. This is why the fact that San Francisco has a league-high 14 draft picks this year is actually a problem. And I can give you five reasons why Trent Baalke, Paraag Marathe and the rest of a very smart draft room should be looking to deal as many picks as possible in an attempt to create very good draft picks in the 2014 and 2015 drafts.
1. They need less help now …
The 49ers could use help at safety -- the deepest position in the draft -- and also will be looking to add a tight end. They could use some depth on the defensive line, where Sopoaga's absence will be noticed and Justin Smith is getting old in football years. But on offense in particular, with James and Jenkins still looking for reps, the depth chart is in very good shape. Even if the 49ers see some regression to the mean in terms of defensive health -- they were freakishly healthy in 2012 -- they're adding depth, not starters.
You can argue all you want that San Francisco needs to maximize any current opportunity to win the Super Bowl, but the 49ers didn't need rookies last year (when many feel they should have won it), and rookies won't be a big reason they do this coming season. But that won't always be the case …
2. … but they'll need it in 2014 and 2015
The 49ers are in the midst of a brief period of salary-cap bliss that few get to experience. They'll take a cap hit of under $1.4 million for Colin Kaepernick in 2013. Regardless of what you believe Kaepernick's ceiling will be, let's assume that he'll at least be a capable NFL starter. If Joe Flacco is a profile of a what "capable" looks like, consider he'll soon be taking up 12 percent or more of the Ravens' salary cap. This isn't outlandish, it's just the going rate.
And following the 2013 season, the 49ers will start talking about a long-term deal for Kaepernick, but that's just a start. They'll also have to consider whether to let go or pay Justin Smith, Donte Whitner and Michael Crabtree. In the year that follows, they'll face internal debates about whether they can afford to pay the next guys up for huge deals, including Aldon Smith and Mike Iupati. The year after, it will be Vernon Davis' turn.
I just read off a laundry list of impact talent that could either stay or go over two-plus year stretch. If the 49ers keep these guys, they'll need a lot of depth help from draft picks in 2014 and 2015, because they'll need a lot of cheap salaries. If they don't, they need greater impact from those future draft picks, which brings us to the next point.
3. Trading picks now means better picks in the future
Professor John Clayton uses a pretty basic formula for calculating what you can get by dealing a draft pick, and history backs him up: a traded pick this year is worth a pick in the next round up for the following year. So trade a third now, you'll get a second for next year. By that math, a fourth-rounder in 2013 (a player totally unlikely to contribute to the current 49ers) could turn into a second-rounder by 2015. Now, you need to find a dance partner, but if the 49ers deal as many of their picks as they can, they're stockpiling better picks for the next two years, when they might actually need the on-field return.
The 49ers have 14 picks in this draft -- just how much better could they make those picks when they're actually needed? That's worth asking because …
4. They can't keep these picks anyway
Of San Francisco's 2012 draft class, exactly zero are listed as starters on the current depth chart. Several are backups, but -- like on many other teams -- no team drafts with the expectation that every pick will even make the team, much less provide meaningful returns early on. Needless to say, if the 49ers use all 14 of these picks, no team will end up cutting more draft picks this summer. Again, that's not bad drafting -- it's arithmetic.
5. Future picks mean more than future rookies
Don't for a second think stockpiling future picks means the 49ers will simply be flooded with needed young talent in 2014 and 2015 as they begin to make tough decisions on roster veterans. It can also mean they're able to deal easily for veterans. The offer of a future second-round pick can get almost any GM to call you back on a player. For a first, you're talking about the likes of Darrelle Revis.
Trading away picks you don't need for future picks you might doesn't just make you a likelier destination for impact rookies, it makes you a potential destination for any player you want. And it's what makes the most sense for the 49ers.