Quote (AiNedeSpelCzech @ 29 Sep 2016 19:08)
WHERE'S OUR MINUTE BY MINUTE UPDATE OF THE NOWCAST
I ignored you last time (
http://forums.d2jsp.org/topic.php?t=72969075&f=119&p=507982226) because you were being a condescending prick.
In any case, I've never wavered from the Democrats/HRC being the odds-on favorite this election, and that was even before Trump was the GOP nominee. The Democrats have key demographics in their favor, and Trump has only exacerbated that issue for the GOP.
I put much more stock into the RCP average, Vegas odds, and political market rates than I do FiveThirtyEight's now-cast; in that particular case I was just pointing out that Trump had a solid two weeks in the polls before the debate. It was only the second time he led in that model since his post-convention bump, and I certainly did not expect him him to win if the election was held right then because obviously it is not a perfect model and that wasn't even the point I was illustrating.
In any case, that's the context I pointed out the nowcast in, just as an overall metric that showed Trump had been having a strong two weeks in the polls, not that I actually thought he'd win. But after his bad debate, I expect HRC to climb back to a 4 or 5 point lead again instead of a 1 or 2 point cushion.
This post was edited by ThatAlex on Sep 29 2016 06:43pm