Quote (Mangix @ Nov 4 2014 10:22pm)
if you listen closely you can hear the collective minds explode
http://i.imgur.com/9hgIInz.gif
Not at all. There are some obvious surprises but anyone who actively follows elections knows that every Election Day brings many of those. It would take a while to count how many times I've noted in this thread through updates that races like MA-GOV, CT-GOV, IL-GOV, FL-GOV, ME-GOV, CO-GOV, NC-SEN would be very close but it should have been obvious. Most of these races were within 1%-3%, so it's very predictable that the universal swing could push most of the races in one direction as it usually does. It happened to the benefit of the Democrats in 2008 and 2012 (and even 2013), and I think most people understand that it pushes things towards the GOP in midterm elections given the current makeup of both parties.
What's interesting about this election is why certain races went the way they did; how the GOP could win a Senate race in North Carolina but lose one in New Hampshire, or why they could eek out a win in FL-26 but narrowly lose northern Florida-based FL-2, or how they can win a governorship in Maryland but there be a 10,000-vote margin in Colorado.
As I noted at the beginning of the night you were going to see an interesting turnout dynamic where there would be low Democratic turnout outside of the districts and regions that they micro-targeted. There will be an endless debate on what caused it specifically (there is no right answer), but when core Democratic voters don't turn out to vote (or can't) combined with soft partisans not being interested in voting either you get the type of low-vote/unique turnout wins seen in this pattern that otherwise couldn't be explained or predicted.
Edit: Also, eventually this will transition over to the 2016 elections thread I made some time ago since that cycle will be starting soon (if it hasn't already). If people want to keep discussing the 2014 elections/races then have at it here, but keep it substantive. There's no appetite for the type of bullshit like the post above, take that nonsense to another thread. If the thread is no longer constructive I'll simply have it locked or moved.
This post was edited by Pollster on Nov 5 2014 12:22am