Quinnipiac wasn't quite done yet after all. They also released surveys for CO-SEN and CO-GOV, both showing the Republican candidate leading 45%-43%. At first blush a 2-point lead might look good for the GOP but this is from the firm that dropped a ridiculous Gardner +8/Beauprez +10 set of polls back in early September. It took two months and plenty of outliers but Quinnipiac has finally fallen in line. Regardless of the outcomes, their reputation will take a big hit this year for poor performance. Worming their way back towards consensus is a trait usually reserved for Republican shill outfits like Rasmussen or for fraud firms like Gravis or the defunct Research 2000. Most credible firms don't have an excessive herding problem like Quinn has exhibited this cycle. Their final polls might help them rehab their image a little though (obviously the media won't look beyond them), because they historically perform poorly in Colorado and this is their first attempt in Iowa. Some miscellaneous updates:
PPP released some client polls in Iowa, Kansas, and North Carolina showing Ernst 48%-47%, Roberts 47%-46%, and Hagan 46%-45%. They're going to release 5 more (NC, NH, GA, IA, and KS) tonight that were in the field after the client polls.
AZ-1: The Democrats got some bad news over the weekend when they found out that the Navajo Nation is postponing its presidential election, which was scheduled to also be on Election Day and be a major benefit to Democratic incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick. She goes from being a modest favorite to being in a pure tossup race.
AZ-2: The Arizona Republican party is sending out mailers attacking Ron Barber for...
allegedly supporting Paul Ryan. They claim Barber voted for the "terrifying Ryan budget." The charge is false, because while Barber supported the small-scale bipartisan budget that Patty Murray and Paul Ryan worked out late last year, Barber did not vote for "the Ryan budget" as his "Pathway to Prosperity" budgets are commonly referred to. Either way, it's funny watching a state Republican party attack a conservative Democrat for being too conservative.
AR-2: Republicans are now conceding that Democratic candidate Pat Hayes has a great chance to pick up this seat due to the heart of Mark Pryor's turnout operation being located here. Pryor looks like an underdog himself but both campaigns are expecting him to carry this district and possibly pull Hayes across the finish line.
CA-52: A second staffer has come forward to accuse Carl DeMaio of sexual harassment. Not the story you want a campaign to close on.
MI-6: Entrenched Republican incumbent Fred Upton put $250k of his own money up for a late-game ad buy, this after the conservative group American Future Fund boosted him over the last few weeks. Upton has been targeted by the Mayday PAC and is facing a stiffer challenge than usual but he should hold on.
NV-4: Thanks to poor Democratic turnout and a
big buy from Karl Rove's Super PAC, this district looked vulnerable to a two-year rental for the GOP. Jon Ralston is predicting that Horsford holds on narrowly though.
UT-4: Republicans thought they put this race away a long time ago but new polling is giving them heartburn. An online-only BYU poll remarkably found Doug Owens leading Mia Love last week. It prompted UtahPolicy to hold back a poll they did because it showed something similar, and they opted for a larger poll instead that found Love leading 48%-43%. This is supposed to be a Safe Republican pickup. If Love loses again it would be a shocker.
FL-GOV: The
GOP's early voting advantage continues to dwindle. Democrats cut it from 4.3% to 3.3% in one day. It was 7.6% one week ago and 12.7% back in 2010. PPP's final poll has Crist with a
0.2% lead, up 44%-43.8%.
CT-GOV: Conservative third candidate Tom Visconti dropped out of the race and endorsed Foley.
Like Eliot Cutler in Maine, this might be too little too late. In addition to the Quinnipiac poll mentioned earlier, PPP has Malloy ahead 44%-41%-6%.
IL-GOV: Republican pollster We Ask America now finds Pat Quinn leading 50%-45%. PPP's final poll here found Quinn ahead 47%-45%, so we could see
another miracle performance in a deadlocked race.
MA-GOV: Weird, weird story here. Republican Charlie Baker was seen as
taking the lead in this race thanks to a flawed opponent and a massive fundraising edge, but he's spending the days before Election Day trying to pivot away from an embarrassing episode in a debate. Baker told a story about a time he cried on the campaign trail and recounted a story about a fisherman who wouldn't let his sons take football scholarships so he could force them to stay in the family business, thus "ruining their lives." Then he cried on cue. It was seen as a humanizing moment but then the state press descended on New Bedford and couldn't find the fisherman, or the sons, and no one knows what the hell he's talking about. Baker pretty much had to start walking back the story immediately, first saying he may have gotten a couple of the details wrong but then basically admitting that the whole thing was bunk, and then he cried on cue again anyway. You can read about some of the details here [See:
http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2014/10/30/baker-says-may-have-gotten-some-details-fisherman-story-wrong/dHDSOAmgnUsW9i9yN3Ua2I/story.html] or watch Rachel Maddow humorously take Baker down [See:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ooHo54P21q4]. So bizarre. There's hardly any time for Coakley to get the story out, so if Baker finds a way to lose this race it will be shocking.