I'm loving the new Kasich slogan in Ohio: "He's tough, but he listens and Ohio is on the rise".

I'm sure I'll be hearing a lot of it being in a large urban center with a strong puritan ethic attitude.

I would like to see increased funding to emergency crisis agencies but we need a strong tax base for that to happen, and I think we're going in the right direction.

There is just so much work to do, and so little time. And all problems we face are going to get worse before they get better.



When the boomers hit 85 we better have a response ready for this...we can't just pray there will be a medical response, there must be a social response ready.

This is where I'm carving out my niche. You other bright minds, find a problem you care deeply about, and go to work.



Lol, I seen that post before I read Jay's and didn't get it at first.

This post was edited by Skinned on Sep 4 2014 09:38am

Jay's showing off his illudium Q-36, and it was just too tempting to pass up.

I had to Google that. You are full of twists and turns today

@ Skinned:



Just think of me as Bugs Bunny.

Take the small talk elsewhere, thanks.

Kansas has understandably become the new fascination of the professional pundit class. Most of the well-known election forecasters/analysts have given their initial estimation of Orman's odds of victory as they stand now:

Sam Wang's PEC: Orman 85% chance of victory
Nate Silver's 538: Orman 44% chance of victory
New York Times' Upshot Model: Orman 38% chance of victory
Stu Rothenberg: Tilt Roberts
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican/Roberts
HuffPo Pollster: Roberts 90% chance of victory

So, not a consensus so far. There's also a question whether or not Taylor's letter asking to be removed from the ballot is satisfactory, and in that whether the Democrats can merely choose not to nominate someone or whether they must nominate another candidate. The whole thing might (and probably will) end up in court, because the GOP is trying furiously to keep Taylor on the ballot because they know how vulnerable Roberts is. Stu Rothenberg reported that Roberts has not seriously campaigned in the month since his narrow primary win [See: http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/news/article/pat-roberts-is-the-most-vulnerable-republican-senator-in-the-country], so expect almost every major polling firm in the country to descend on Kansas in the next couple of weeks to figure out where this race really stands since it could now decide which party wins the crucial 50th/51st Senate seat.

OK. Wouldn't want you to have to go to the trouble of PM'ing a mod to cry or anything.

One week later and Republicans still have the Kansas blues. SurveyUSA went into the state and produced new polling that should scare the GOP to the core: Independent Senate candidate Greg Orman leads Republican Senator Pat Roberts 37%-36% with 10% still going to withdrawn Democratic candidate Chad Taylor and 6% going to Libertarian Randall Batson. Each of these numbers are concerning to Republicans: Roberts stuck in the 30s is dreadful, Taylor still pulling 10% is problematic since it shows Orman still has significant room to grow, a Libertarian with a decent showing could result in yet another shift to Orman as protest voters learn more about a 3rd party candidate with a legitimate path to victory, and the high number of undecideds are live votes too. SUSA also finds Democratic nominee Paul Davis leading Republican Governor Sam Brownback 47%-40%, nearly identical to Davis' 48%-40% lead in their previous poll. Davis has essentially led in polling all year long and gets closer to 50% with each passing week.

Other recent polling has been equally encouraging to Democrats. Recent surveys in North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, and Michigan (which combined represent a firewall of sorts) were very positive. If the Democrats were somehow able to win all 4 of those states that currently tilt or lean towards them then they would end up with 49 seats. Winning one more seat between the following 7 options of AK/AR/GA/KS/KY/LA/SD would result in the Democrats retaining control of the Senate next year.

SurveyUSA went from the most interesting Senate race in the country to the 2nd-most interesting Senate race in the country: http://www.ksfy.com/story/26490930/survey-south-dakota-poll-results-for-lone-us-senate-seat

Republican Mike Rounds is at 39%, Democrat Rick Weiland at 28%, Republican-turned-Independent Larry Pressler at 25%, and Republican-running-as-Indepedent Gordon Howie at 3%. This is the rare race where the 3rd partier is pulling from the Democratic vote share. SUSA polled a hypothetical 1-on-1 race and found that Rounds would only lead Weiland 44%-42%. If Pressler faded (or best case scenario for the Democrats, dropped out) or if Rounds implodes, Weiland could score an upset in a race that's long been thought gone for the Democrats. Weiland, Pressler, and Howie have teamed up for months to attack Rounds in unison and their attacks might hurt a little more after some new opposition research dug up incredibly harmful details about Rounds' handling of the EB-5 program during his stint as governor: http://www.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/2014/09/08/eb-5-news-conference/15285971/

South Dakota has been long-thought to be an easy pickup for Republicans but Rounds is struggling. The 4-way dynamic of the race is keeping him the odds-on favorite but his lead is narrow.

This post was edited by Pollster on Sep 9 2014 08:06pm

New Ranges, shift, and cause for movement.

House: D+3 - R+8 - [Shift: <-] (MA-06)
Senate: R+0 - R+7
Governors: D+6 - R+2

A new range for the House to reflect tonight's development. Most of the primary contests were uneventful but Democratic Rep. John Tierney lost to primary challenger Seth Moulton in Massachusetts' 6th district. Tierney had been plagued over the last couple of years by a scandal involving his in-laws but now Democrats have a fresh face in this D+4 district for November. As a result, another one of the GOP's top pickup opportunities moves towards the Democrats as there will be one less vulnerable Democratic incumbent standing for reelection.